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Definitions of the terms of trade:

Since  the development  of  the controversy  in the 1950s,  the concept of  terms of trade is under careful scrutiny and several specifications  and complementary to denote the ratios between the values of one commodity basket in tenns of another. These values, however, can be defined, measured and aggregated in many ways.

To put  it straight,  in international trade, terms of trade are the ratio of the price of an export commodity(ies)  to  the price of an import commodity(ies).  "Terns of trade" are sometimes used  as a proxy  for  the relative social welfare of a country, but this is technically questionable and should be used with extreme caution. An  improvement  in a nation's terms of trade is good for that country because it has to pay  less for the products it imports. In other words, it has to give up  less exports for the imports it receives.

In  a simplified case of two countries and two commodities, terms of trade is defined  as the ratio of  the price  a  country  must  receive for  its  export commodity  to  the price it pays for  its import  commodity. In  this simple  case  the imports of one country are the exports of the other  country.  For  example,  if a country exports 200 dollars worth of export product in exchange for  100
dollars worth of imported product. The country's  terms of trade are 200/100 = 2. The terms of trade for the other country must be the reciprocal (100/200 = .5). When  this number  is  falling, the country is said to have  "deteriorating terms of trade". If multiplied by 100, these calculations can be expressed as a percent (200% and 50% respectively). If a country's terms of trade fall from say 1  00% to 70% (from 1.0  to .7), it has experienced  a 30% deterioration in its terms of trade.

In  case of the terms of trade, there are number of concepts that alternatively emerge. These concepts fall  into two groups:  those that relate to  exchange ratios between  commodities and  those  that  relate  to exchange between productive resources.

1)  The basic concept is that of the Net Barter Terms of Trade (NBTT).  This refers  to  the price of exports to the price of imports, namely Pc/Pm = P where PC  is the price of South's exports, and Pm  of its imports.

2)  The Single Factorial Terms of Trade  (SFTT) =  P.Oc where Oc is output per person in the South. SFTT is the net barter terms of  trade adjusted for the changes in productivity of exports. Then changes in SFTT measures the change  in  living standard of  an exporter in terms of imports.  Suppose productivity increases but price  falls  and  the  sum  of  the  changes  is zero, i.e.,2237_Definitions of the terms of trade1.png, then  the  SFTT  index will  be  unchanged,  namely, the living standard  in  terms of imports  afforded  by  the  exports  is unchanged. But to the extent  that the exported good is consumed at home, there is redistribution from producers to consumers. This gain is ignored by  the definition of the SFTT. But  this omission can be corrected.  The Consumer Price index, CPI can be written as Pc1-apma where a is share of imports  in the consumption basket. If E is money expenditure, then EICPI is  real  expenditure when trade is balanced. So  real expenditure  is:

2017_Definitions of the terms of trade.png

So  the  real  expenditure has  increased  as  P  has  decreased. But  if employment is constant, there is a one to one relation between an output index and a productivity index, and the index for real  expenditure  per employed person, Pa.Qc,  is the WSFTT or the weighted Single Factorial Terms of Trade.

DFTT Double Factorial  Terms  of  Trade  is  adjusted for  both  the productivity of exports and productivity of imports.  If  the  analyst  is interested in the  relative  change in living  standards,  then the Double Factorial Terns of Trade (DFTT)  is calculated. 1586_Definitions of the terms of trade2.png where  0,  is output per person in the North. This gives the relative value of  the output of  workers  and  combines relative prices and relative productivity.

Change  in relative  li'ving standards  can be decomposed into employment, productivity and TT  changes. Suppose we keep employment out of the picture then the remaining two  factors of productivity and TT  can  be combined into the DPTT.  But the DFTT provides an accurate measure of changes  in  the relative size of consumption  baskets only  in special cases  (i) fraction of income qent  on tradeable goods should be  the same in  the two countries  (ii)  the relative  price component is trendless.

For  the DFTT, relative  real income of  the South relative  to  the North is928_Definitions of the terms of trade3.png where E* is the expenditure in the North. When trade is balanced E = PEQE  and  E* =  Pm Q*m, and this expression  becomes (QeQm)P. Underlconstant employment assumption,  this converts to k (QeQm)P where k is the constant ratio of persons employed in the two countries.  k drops out when we view the last expression as an index.  So

2253_Definitions of the terms of trade4.png

The trade unweighted version corresponds to the case where  a+a* = 1. This condition is  satisfied  when  the two  countries have  identical consumption patterns.

4)  2267_Definitions of the terms of trade5.png

Where NC  is emplopent in the production of commodity, so that V  is value of primary production.

The gives value of output measured  in  import prices. This  is a useful measure as  employment data  to calculate Oc  is often not available.

5) Employment Corrected IT Since there is full employment in the North, increased output  in one sector  does not increase total income as income in other sectors declines. But  this  is not  so in  the South where because of unemployment output foregone elsewhere is zero.  To  take account  of this, we  can calculate the employment  corrected  DFTT  namely ECDFTT which equals

1579_Definitions of the terms of trade6.png

Where V =  PcOcNc is  index of output of exportables  valued at  current prices.

This extends the index to all  three dimensions and  also gets rid of troublesome OC,  which can often not be calculated  because of  lack of data.

6) Employment corrected WSFlT  is of interest to analysts again because of unemployment in  the South.

1212_Definitions of the terms of trade7.png

The income  where a = 1, terms of  trade are POcNc,  namely, they correspond  to  the case ,  and so  equal P.X  where X is  quantity of exports, namely value of exports  expressed in import prices.

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