Introduction to Business Forecasting

The increasing competition, rapidity of change in circumstances and the trend towards automation demands  that the decisions in business are not based purely on guesses and hunches instead of  on a careful analysis of data concerning the future course of events. Much  time and attention is given to the future than to the past and the question what is likely to happen? Who takes the precedence over what has happened? Although no attempt to answer the first can be taken without the facts and figures being available to answer the second.

When estimates of future situations are made on a systematic basis the process is referred to as forecasting and the figure or statement obtained is termed  as a forecast in a worked where the future is unknown with certainty virtually every business and economic decision rests upon a forecast of future conditions. In fact, when a man understands the responsibility of running a business, he automatically takes the responsibility for attempting to forecast the future and to a very large extent; his success or failure would totally depend upon the ability to forecast successfully the future course of events. The Forecasting aims at reducing the areas of uncertainty that surround management decision-making with respect to costs,  sales production, profit, pricing, capital investment and so on, if the future were known with certainty forecasting would be unnecessary decisions could be made and plans formulated on a once-and for -all basis without the requirement  for subsequent revision. But uncertainty does exist, future necessary rather than the establishment of predictions that are based on  intuition, hunches or guesses. In fact, a good manger is not so much one why can minimize the effect of past mistakes nut instead of  one who can successfully manage the future. The forecast might  be wrong but they must be made.

The question is not forecast or no forecast? Rather it is what kind of forecast? It may be keep in mind  that the value of a forecast is not merely its accuracy but the fact that making it requires a balanced consideration of factors influencing future developments, right or wrong.

Role of forecasting in business

It must  be realized at the outset that the object of business forecasting is not to determine a curve or series of figures that will tell the edacity what will happen say a year in advance, but it is to make analysis based on definite statistical data. Which will enable and execute to take the  merits  of future conditions to a greater extent than the soled do without them? In many respects, the future tends to move to  the past. This is a good thing, since without some element of continuity between past, present  &  future; there would be a  little possibility of successful prediction. By history is not likely to repeat itself and we would hardly expect economic conditions next year or over the next 10 years to follow a clear-cut precedent. Till frequently past patters prevail sufficiently to justify using the past as a basis for predicting the future.

While forecasting one should note that it is impossible to forecast the future exactly- there always must be some range of error allowed for in the forecast; statistical forecasts are those in which we can use the mathematical theory of probability of measure the risks of errors in the predictions.

Some of its main topics are shown below:

1. Business forecasting introduction
2. Forecasting techniques cautions
3. Forecasting methods
4. Business forecasting methods
5. Forecasting techniques cautions
6. Estimation
7. Successes-number-tests
8. Steps in forecasting 

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