Expert Opinions:

An expert is someone whom the decision maker considers to be such-(they have specialized knowledge in certain fields).

Expert opinions can be under the following methods:

Jury or executive opinion

There are two steps in this method:

• Certain high ranking executives estimate the likely future level of sales.
• A rough average of their estimates is taken. The executive used should be well informed about both the industry and the company.

Advantages

• It is quick and easy
• It is a way to prove the experience and judgement of well informed people
• This may be the only feasible approach to forecasting if the company is so young that it has not yet accumulated the experience necessary to use other methods.
• This method may have to be used when adequate sales and market statistics are missing or unless future figures have not yet been put into the form required for more sophisticated forecasting methods.

Weaknesses

• Its findings are based primarily on opinions.
• It adds to the work of key executives requiring them to spend time they would otherwise spend on managerial duties.
• A forecast by the method is hard to breakdown into forecasts by products, by time, by customers or by markets.