Pooling Equilibrium Assignment Help

Assignment Help: >> Modelling insurance market with adverse selection - Pooling Equilibrium

Pooling Equilibrium:

In a pooling equilibrium, both high and  low risk types buy  the same policy. That  is, the insurer  could offer  a  policy  whose premium  is  based  on  the average probability of loss.

The equilibrium  construct requires that  this policy lie on the aggregate fair odds  line. This implies  that the  policy  earns neither negative  nor  positive profits. To arrive at the equilibrium, let us define  il as the proportion of the high-risk population such  that the  expected  share  of  the population experiencing a loss is given as  

2230_Pooling Equilibrium.png

On the other hand, the expected share experiencing no loss is given as

1374_Pooling Equilibrium1.png

If we  look at the aggregate fair odds line's slope from Figure, it  is given by

1942_Pooling Equilibrium2.png

Notice that in the  'pooling' policy, A must  lie on the aggregate fair odds line. For, if it is above, that would be unprofitable. Therefore, we would not have it in equilibrium.  If  it is below, there would be positive profits. That means, we cannot have it in equilibrium.

You  may  note  that  the  figure  is  drawn with  1798_Pooling Equilibrium3.png It  is important for  the analysis. To appreciate the underlying reason, define

1263_Pooling Equilibrium4.png

1935_Pooling Equilibrium5.png

 

From the vNM property, we know the following:

409_Pooling Equilibrium6.png

Since both types, High and Low, agents are otherwise identical, we can write uh(w)  =  u1(w). This implies that

1220_Pooling Equilibrium7.png

Thus, the slope of the indifference curve for type H is less steep than for type L. We know that the probability of loss is lower for type L. Therefore, type L must  get strictly more income than  H  in  the loss state to  compensate for income taken from the no  loss state. From this observation you can say that L types have steeper  indifference  curves for transfers  of  income between  loss and no-loss states.

As seen above, the pooling equilibrium involves a cross-subsidy from L to H types, i.e., L types pay more than their expected cost and H types pay less than their expected cost. While both H,  L  types pay  the same premium, H makes more claims which is met through cross subsidisation. Herein lies the problem for sustenance  of the equilibrium which we see below.

Failure of the Pooling Equilibrium
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