Reduced Lottery:
Every compound lottery can be presented as a reduced lottery which is same as that of the simple lottery where the consequences, as depicted in the above example, you receive either Rs.2, Rs.4 or 0 with probability 1/2 , 1/4 and 1/4. To appreciate the logic, you can present this example in terms of a decision tree.
From the decision tree, you can get the reduced form probabilities. The probabilities of the second lottery with prizes Rs.4 and 0 are obtained multiplying probabilities associated with each node, viz., (1/2 x 1/2) and (1/2 x 1/2)
To see why compound lottery can be presented as a simple lottery, you may consider a situation where an individual is not sure, which of the lotteries, L = , she is facing. So she assigns probability α to it being L and (1 - α) to it being L' . Now, consider the resulting compound lottery
which is a simple lottery. Thus, a compound lottery is an average of simple lotteries.
So, for any compound lottery , we can calculate a corresponding reduced lottery as a simple lottery L = (p1, . . . pn) that generates the same ultimate distribution over outcomes. Taking probability of outcome n in the reduced lottery is
That is, you simply add up the probabilities pnk of each outcome n in all lotteries, k. multiplying each pnk by the probability αk of each lottery k.