Reduced Lottery Assignment Help

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Reduced Lottery:

Every compound lottery can be presented as a reduced  lottery which is same as that of the simple lottery where the consequences, as depicted in the above example, you receive either Rs.2, Rs.4 or 0 with probability 1/2  ,  1/4 and 1/4. To appreciate the logic, you can present this example in terms of a decision tree.  

930_Reduced Lottery.png

From  the decision tree,  you  can get  the  reduced  form probabilities. The probabilities of  the  second lottery  with  prizes  Rs.4  and  0  are obtained multiplying probabilities associated  with  each node,  viz.,  (1/2 x 1/2)  and (1/2 x 1/2)

To see why  compound lottery can be presented  as a simple lottery, you may consider a situation where an individual is not sure, which of the lotteries, L = 1097_Reduced Lottery1.png, she is facing. So she assigns probability α to it being  L  and  (1 - α) to  it  being L'  . Now,  consider the resulting compound lottery

1535_Reduced Lottery2.png

1538_Reduced Lottery3.png which  is a simple lottery. Thus, a compound lottery is an average of simple lotteries.

So, for  any  compound  lottery 907_Reduced Lottery4.png, we  can  calculate a corresponding reduced  lottery as a simple lottery L =  (p1, . . .  pn)  that generates the same ultimate distribution over outcomes. Taking probability of outcome n in the reduced lottery is 

538_Reduced Lottery5.png

 

That  is,  you  simply  add  up  the probabilities  pnk  of  each outcome  n  in  all lotteries, k. multiplying each pnk by the probability  αk of each lottery k.

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