Dynamic game of incomplete information:
Now we introduce yet another concept of equilibrium viz. perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium. Perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium was invented in order to refine (i.e., strengthen the requirements of) Bayesian Nash equilibrium in the same way that sub-game-perfect Nash equilibrium refines Nash equilibrium. A Perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium must satisfy two conditions viz., first the equilibrium must be a Bayesian Nash equilibrium and secondly, it must also constitute a Bayesian Nash equilibrium in every continuation game. Later we formally define a perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium.
Before we give the formal definition of perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium we must first define four requirements needed to define a perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The four requirements are stated below:
Requirement 1: At each information set, the player with the move must have a belief about which node in the information set has been reached by the play of the game. For a nonsingleton information set, a belief is a probability distribution over the nodes in the information set; for a singleton information set, the player's belief puts probability one on the single decision node.
Requirement 2: Given their beliefs, the players' strategies must be sequentially rational. That is, at each information set the action taken by the player with the move (and the players' subsequent strategy) must be optimal given the player's belief at that information set and the other players' subsequent strategies (where a "subsequent strategy" is a complete plan of action covering every contingency that might arise after the given information set has been reached).
Definition: For a. given equilibrium in a given extensive form game, an information set is on the equilibrium path if it will be reached with positive probability and even when the game played according to the equilibrium strategies. It is off the equilibriunt path if it is certain not to be reached if the game is played according to the equilibrium strategies (where "equilibrium" can mean Nash, sub-game-perfect, Bayesian, or perfect Bayesian equilibrium).
Requirement 3: At information sets on the equilibrium path, beliefs are determined by Bayes' rule and the players' equilibrium strategies.
Requirement 4; At information sets off the equilibrium path, beliefs are determined by the Bayes' rule and players' equilibrium strategies where possible.
Definition: A perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium consists of strategies and beliefs satisfying Requirements 1 through 4.