Delphi method:

 The aim of this method is to gain the consensus of a group of experts on a certain matter. This is accomplished by questioning them individually and providing them with anonymous feedback from other people in the group until they agree on a common line.

Any set of information available to some expert is passed on to all other experts enabling them to have access to all the information for forecasting.

The questioning is handled impersonally by a co-ordinator. The method is commonly used in

technological forecasting. The Delphi method eliminates:

                        •           Committee activity

                        •           Bandwagon effect of majority opinion

                        •           Possibility of one strong person dominating the decision making

Note

The above form expert opinion methods. Seeking opinions from experts has certain advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages

• Different points of view are brought out and balanced in the forecasting process.
• Forecasting using expert-opinions can be done quickly and inexpensively.
• In many cases, the management has no choice but to use expert opinions, when basic data are sparse or lacking.

Weaknesses

• Opinions are less satisfactory than hard facts.
• Responsibility for the final figure of the forecast is (too) dispersed
• The methods are usually more reliable for aggregate forecasting rather than developing reliable breakdowns for territory, customer or product.