Yield volatility and measurement, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Measuring volatility is very important as it is a critical input in valuation models. In subsequent chapters we will see the importance of assumed volatility in valuing bonds with embedded options. Also, in measuring the interest rate risk of a position, a combination of duration with yield volatility is used.

Measuring Historical Yield Volatility

Standard deviation or variance is used to measure the yield volatility. We can calculate variance using historical date with the help of the following formula:

         Variance =  508_yield volatility.png                                                                         ... Eq. (1)

and

         Standard deviation = 260_yield volatility1.png

In the above formula, Xt is the observation t of variable  448_yield volatility2.png  , is the sample mean for variable X, and T is the number of observations in the sample.

Our focus is to calculate the change in the daily yield relative to the previous day's yield.

This can be computed as the natural logarithm of the ratio of the yield for two days i.e.,                          

         ln (yt/yt - 1)

Where,

         y    = Yield on day t.

         yt - 1  = Yield on day t - 1.

The relative change of daily yields computed under simple compounding and continuous compounding is almost same. But, continuous compounding is more popular among market participants.

Multiplying the natural logarithm of the ratio of the two yields by 100 scales gives us the percentage change in daily yields.

         Xt = 100 [ln (yt/yt - 1)]

Where,

         Xt   = % change in yield.

         yt    = Yield on day t.

         yt -  1 = Yield on day t - 1.

Determining the Number of Observations

The sample size, i.e., the number of observations taken, affects the calculation of daily standard deviation. It is difficult to define an ideal sample size as it always depends upon the situation in hand. For example, a portfolio manager who is more concerned about long-term volatility might use 25 days for observation whereas a trader concerned about overnight positions might use only 10 most recent trading days.

Annualizing the Standard Deviation

We can find the annualized standard deviation with the help of the formula given below:

         Daily standard deviation x 1126_standard deviation.png

There is a different view regarding the number of days in the year that is to be used in the formula given above. Some market participants use 360 days whereas some use 365 days. There are some market participants who use only trading days i.e., 260 days based on five working days in a week for 52 weeks, while some other participants deduct 10 non-trading holidays too and use 250 days.

Interpreting the Standard Deviation

Assume that standard deviation for the 15 years zero coupon bond is 14%. If the prevailing yield is 8% then the annual standard deviation will be 112 basis points (14 x 8).              


Related Discussions:- Yield volatility and measurement

Serene Hall ?? Assignment, The purchase price is expected to be in the regi...

The purchase price is expected to be in the region of £30m - £40m now (year 0 ?? 2003) and further cash flow effects might include: ?? Annual cash inflows from New You ?? in a rang

Write a report to outlining the theoretical arguments, QUESTION The Man...

QUESTION The Managing Director of your firm is thinking aloud about an appropriate gearing level for the company: "The consultants I spoke to yesterday explained that some t

Evaluate the income statement, 2010 equity balance required: (600-20 - 2...

2010 equity balance required: (600-20 - 25 - 15 - 20)= 520 employees eligible Total expected equivalent value = 520 x 500 options x $1.48 = $384,800 $384,800 x 3/4 years = $28

Start-up financing, Start-Up Financing Capital provided to companies wh...

Start-Up Financing Capital provided to companies which have been in operation for less than one year to facilitate all phases of bringing their product to market.

Exchange requirements-, Exchange Requirements To ensure money supply, s...

Exchange Requirements To ensure money supply, some central banks require some or all of its foreign exchange receipts (generally from exports) be exchanged for the local curren

Calculate the interest value , 1. Suppose a firm's tax rate is 35%. What af...

1. Suppose a firm's tax rate is 35%. What affect would a $10 million operating expense have on this year's earnings?  What effect would it have on next year's earnings? 2. What

Define the conversion ratio and conversion value, Define the following term...

Define the following terms that relate to a convertible bond:  conversion ratio, conversion value, and straight bond value. The term conversion ratio is the number of shares of c

Opperating cyles, discuss the applicability of operating cycles of vegetabl...

discuss the applicability of operating cycles of vegetable growing

Risks and advantage when a company has operation in country, What are some ...

What are some of the primary advantages when a corporation has operations in countries other than its home country?  What are some of the risks? Foreign operations may decrease a

What are financial crises in financial markets, What are financial crises i...

What are financial crises in financial markets? Financial crises: Financial crises are described as major disruptions in financial markets which are characterised by shar

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd