UNCERTAINTY OF DEMAND

Demand is the most troublesome variable to predict accurately. Actually, demand may fluctuate from day to day, from week to week or from month to month. Thus, the firm takes the risk of running out of stocks if there are sudden increases in demand. Hence safety stock is the extra inventory held as a buffer of protection against the possibility of stock due to higher demand.

However, a larger inventory of safety stock will involve a higher inventory carrying costs, and on the other hand, the higher safety stock will decrease stock-out costs. Therefore one has to make a balance between these two costs in order to find out an optimal safety costs.

The optimum safety-stock level exists where the costs of carrying an extra unit are exactly counter balanced by the expected stock-out costs. This would be the level that minimizes the annual total stock-out and carrying costs.