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Assorted fund, a U.K.-based globally diversified equity mutual fund, is considering adding Talisman Energy Inc. (Toronto Stock Exchange: TLM) to its portfolio. Talisman is an independent upstream oil and gas company headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Brian Dobson, an analyst at the mutual fund, has been assigned the task of estimating a fair value of Talisman. Dobson is aware of several approaches that could be used for this purpose. Talisman pays semi-annual dividends. The total dividends during 2006, 2007, and 2008 have been C$0.114, C$0.15 and C$0.175, respectively. These imply a growth rate of 32 percent in 2007 and 17 percent in 2008. Dobson is doing the analysis in January 2008 and the stock price at that time is C$17. He has estimated that the required rate of return on Talisman stock is 8.72 percent.Dobson believes that the growth rate will be 14 percent throughout the first stage of eight years. The dividend growth rate will be 7 percent thereafter.
Instead of using the estimated stable growth rate of 7 percent in the second stage, Dobson wants to use his estimate that eight years later Talisman's stock will be worth 17 times its earnings per share (trailing P/E of 17). He expects that the earnings retention ratio at that time will be 0.70.
a. What is the terminal value of stock based on the two-stage DDM model?b. What proportion of the total value of the stock is represented by the value of the second stage?c. What is terminal value of the stock based on the earnings multiple approach?d. What is the current value of the stock based on the second approach?e. Dobson is wondering what the consequences to stock price would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 11 years instead of 8 years. Comment.
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