Total Fertility Rate

Total fertility rate (TFR) is the total number of children a women can be expected to bear in a given population if birth rates are constant for at least one generation. Replacement level is a value of TFR and is the number of children a couple must have to replace themselves. You might think that two parents would have to have only two children to replace themselves.

The actual average replacement level is, however, slightly higher, primarily because some children die before reaching their reproductive years. In developed countries the replacement level is fixed at 2.1. In developing countries where infant mortality rates are high and life expectancies are short, replacement level is about 2.7. If replacement level is low-below 2 i.e. each couple has children less than those required to replace themselves, then the population will actually decline as in the case of Sweden and Germany.