The expected monetary value method, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

The expected monetary value method

The expected pay off as profit associated with a described combination of act and event is acquired by multiplying the pay off for that act and event combination by the probability of occurrence of the described event. The expected monetary value or EMV of an act is the sum of all expected conditional profits associated along with that act

Illustration

A manager has a choice among

i.        A risky contract promising of shs 7 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 4 million along with probability 0.4 and

ii.      A diversified portfolio consisting of two contracts along with independent outcomes each promising Shs 3.5 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 2 million along with probability 0.4

Could you arrive at the decision by using EMV method?

Solution

The conditional payoff table for the problem may be constructed as given below:

(Shillings in millions)

Event Ei

Probability (Ei)

Conditional pay offs decision

Expected pay off  decision

 

(i)

Contract (ii)

Portfolio(iii)

Contract (i) x (ii)

Portfolio (i) x (iii)

Ei

0.6

7

3.5

4.2

2.1

E2

0.4

4

2

1.6

0.8

 

 

 

EMV

5.8

2.9

 

By using the EMV method the manager must go in for the risky contract that will yield him a higher expected monetary value of shs 5.8 million


Related Discussions:- The expected monetary value method

Math, The Timbuktu post office has only 3 cents and 7 cents stamps having r...

The Timbuktu post office has only 3 cents and 7 cents stamps having run out of all other denominations. What are the six amounts of postage that cannot be created? How do you know

the demand forecast, The King Company is producing two types of products: ...

The King Company is producing two types of products: A and B. Both products are produced on the similar machining operation. The machines operate on two 8-hour shifts, 5 days per w

Direction field for the differential equation, We require to check the deri...

We require to check the derivative thus let's use v = 60. Plugging it in (2) provides the slope of the tangent line as -1.96, or negative. Thus, for all values of v > 50 we will ha

Formula to computing how much lumber to buy, Audrey is creating a increased...

Audrey is creating a increased flowerbed which is 4.5 ft by 4.5 ft. She requires computing how much lumber to buy. If she requires knowing the distance around the flowerbed, which

Word problem, A girl has 25 plants in all, 8 of them are tomatos. She has 1...

A girl has 25 plants in all, 8 of them are tomatos. She has 10 more bean plants than pepper plants. How many pepper plants does she have?

Cylinder - three dimensional spaces, Cylinder The below equation is th...

Cylinder The below equation is the common equation of a cylinder. x 2 /a 2 + y 2 /b 2 = 1 This is known as a cylinder whose cross section is an ellipse.  If a = b we

Coefficient of determination, Coefficient of Determination It refers t...

Coefficient of Determination It refers to the ratio of the explained variation to the total variation and is utilized to measure the strength of the linear relationship. The s

Find the second derivative of the equation, Find the second derivative of t...

Find the second derivative of the below given equation Y= e x cosx

Luis runs rate of 11.7 feet per second how far does he run, Luis runs at a ...

Luis runs at a rate of 11.7 feet per second. How far does he run in 5 seconds? You must multiply 11.7 by 5; 11.7 × 5 = 58.5. To multiply decimals, multiply generally, then coun

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd