The expected monetary value method, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

The expected monetary value method

The expected pay off as profit associated with a described combination of act and event is acquired by multiplying the pay off for that act and event combination by the probability of occurrence of the described event. The expected monetary value or EMV of an act is the sum of all expected conditional profits associated along with that act

Illustration

A manager has a choice among

i.        A risky contract promising of shs 7 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 4 million along with probability 0.4 and

ii.      A diversified portfolio consisting of two contracts along with independent outcomes each promising Shs 3.5 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 2 million along with probability 0.4

Could you arrive at the decision by using EMV method?

Solution

The conditional payoff table for the problem may be constructed as given below:

(Shillings in millions)

Event Ei

Probability (Ei)

Conditional pay offs decision

Expected pay off  decision

 

(i)

Contract (ii)

Portfolio(iii)

Contract (i) x (ii)

Portfolio (i) x (iii)

Ei

0.6

7

3.5

4.2

2.1

E2

0.4

4

2

1.6

0.8

 

 

 

EMV

5.8

2.9

 

By using the EMV method the manager must go in for the risky contract that will yield him a higher expected monetary value of shs 5.8 million


Related Discussions:- The expected monetary value method

#title., fixed cost of $1400 ,printing cost of .40 cents -each item to sell...

fixed cost of $1400 ,printing cost of .40 cents -each item to sell for $1.05. what is linear cost function, linear revenue function and number of items to be sold to make a profit

Find out the interval of validity, Without solving, find out the interval o...

Without solving, find out the interval of validity for the subsequent initial value problem. (t 2 - 9) y' + 2y = In |20 - 4t|,   y(4) = -3 Solution First, in order to u

Complex numbers, A number of the form x + iy, where x and y are real and na...

A number of the form x + iy, where x and y are real and natural numbers and is called as a complex number. It is normally given by z. i.e. z = x + iy, x is called as the real part

How many can speak both english and russian, In a group of 1000 people, the...

In a group of 1000 people, there are 750 people will speak English and 400 people will speak Russian. How many may speak English only? How many will speak Russian? How many can spe

Three person problem of points, Three-person Problem of Points: Pascal, Fer...

Three-person Problem of Points: Pascal, Fermat and their old friend the Chevalier de Mere each put $10.00 into a pot, and agree to play a game that has rounds. Each player has the

Permuation and combination, how many words can be formed from letters of wo...

how many words can be formed from letters of word daughter such that each word contain 2vowles and 3consonant

Calculus, Properties of Integration

Properties of Integration

Solving whole number riddles, What is the answer for I am greater than 30 a...

What is the answer for I am greater than 30 and less than 40. The sum of my digits is less than 5.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd