The expected monetary value method, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

The expected monetary value method

The expected pay off as profit associated with a described combination of act and event is acquired by multiplying the pay off for that act and event combination by the probability of occurrence of the described event. The expected monetary value or EMV of an act is the sum of all expected conditional profits associated along with that act

Illustration

A manager has a choice among

i.        A risky contract promising of shs 7 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 4 million along with probability 0.4 and

ii.      A diversified portfolio consisting of two contracts along with independent outcomes each promising Shs 3.5 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 2 million along with probability 0.4

Could you arrive at the decision by using EMV method?

Solution

The conditional payoff table for the problem may be constructed as given below:

(Shillings in millions)

Event Ei

Probability (Ei)

Conditional pay offs decision

Expected pay off  decision

 

(i)

Contract (ii)

Portfolio(iii)

Contract (i) x (ii)

Portfolio (i) x (iii)

Ei

0.6

7

3.5

4.2

2.1

E2

0.4

4

2

1.6

0.8

 

 

 

EMV

5.8

2.9

 

By using the EMV method the manager must go in for the risky contract that will yield him a higher expected monetary value of shs 5.8 million


Related Discussions:- The expected monetary value method

Fundamental theorem of calculus, Fundamental Theorem of Calculus, Part II ...

Fundamental Theorem of Calculus, Part II Assume f ( x ) is a continuous function on [a,b] and also assume that F ( x ) is any anti- derivative for f ( x ) . Then,

Sum of their areas is given find radii of the two circles, Two circles touc...

Two circles touch externally. The sum of their areas is 58 π cm 2 and the distance between their centres is 10 cm. Find the radii of the two circles. (Ans:7cm, 3cm) Ans:

first and third quartiles, From the data given below calculate the value o...

From the data given below calculate the value of first and third quartiles, second and ninth deciles and forty-fifth and fifty-seventh percentiles.

..percentage, how to express 15/4 into percentage

how to express 15/4 into percentage

Example of addition of signed numbers, Example of addition of Signed Number...

Example of addition of Signed Numbers: Example: (-2) + 3 + 4 = 0 - 2 + 3 + 4 Solution: Thus: (-2) + 3 + 4 = 5  Example: 10 + (-5) + 8 + (-7)

Find the perimeter of the rectangle, Find the perimeter of the figure, wher...

Find the perimeter of the figure, where AED is a semi-circle and ABCD is a rectangle.    (Ans : 76cm) Ans:    Perimeter of the fig = 20 + 14 + 20 + length of the arc (AED

Calculate the volume and surface area of a sphere, Calculate the volume and...

Calculate the volume and surface area of a sphere: Calculate the volume and surface area of a sphere with r = 4".  Be sure to include units in your answer. Solution: V

Solve 6 sin ( x/2)= 1 on [-20, Solve 6 sin ( x/2)= 1 on [-20,30] Soluti...

Solve 6 sin ( x/2)= 1 on [-20,30] Solution Let's first work out calculator of the way since that isn't where the difference comes into play. sin( x/2)= 1/6   ⇒x/2= sin

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd