The expected monetary value method, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

The expected monetary value method

The expected pay off as profit associated with a described combination of act and event is acquired by multiplying the pay off for that act and event combination by the probability of occurrence of the described event. The expected monetary value or EMV of an act is the sum of all expected conditional profits associated along with that act

Illustration

A manager has a choice among

i.        A risky contract promising of shs 7 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 4 million along with probability 0.4 and

ii.      A diversified portfolio consisting of two contracts along with independent outcomes each promising Shs 3.5 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 2 million along with probability 0.4

Could you arrive at the decision by using EMV method?

Solution

The conditional payoff table for the problem may be constructed as given below:

(Shillings in millions)

Event Ei

Probability (Ei)

Conditional pay offs decision

Expected pay off  decision

 

(i)

Contract (ii)

Portfolio(iii)

Contract (i) x (ii)

Portfolio (i) x (iii)

Ei

0.6

7

3.5

4.2

2.1

E2

0.4

4

2

1.6

0.8

 

 

 

EMV

5.8

2.9

 

By using the EMV method the manager must go in for the risky contract that will yield him a higher expected monetary value of shs 5.8 million


Related Discussions:- The expected monetary value method

Probability, julie has 3 hats and 5 scarves. How many ways can she wear a h...

julie has 3 hats and 5 scarves. How many ways can she wear a hat and a scarf?

Hypothesis testing procedure, Hypothesis Testing Procedure Whenever a b...

Hypothesis Testing Procedure Whenever a business complaint comes up here is a recommended procedure for conducting a statistical test. The reason of such a test is to establish

Word problems, A patient will receive hemodialysis for 2.5 hours. The amoun...

A patient will receive hemodialysis for 2.5 hours. The amount of fluid removed per hour is 1.4 liters. The total amount removed in liters, will be

Calculus!, x+2y^2=63 and 4x+y^2=0; Find the area of the regions enclosed by...

x+2y^2=63 and 4x+y^2=0; Find the area of the regions enclosed by the lines and curves.

Polynomial : f(x).f(1/x), A polynomial satisfies the following relation f(x...

A polynomial satisfies the following relation f(x).f(1/x)= f(x)+f(1/x). f(2) = 33. fIND f(3) Ans) The required polynomial is x^5 +1. This polynomial satisfies the condition state

Extrema- minimum and maximum values, Extrema : Note as well that while we ...

Extrema : Note as well that while we say an "open interval around x = c " we mean that we can discover some interval ( a, b ) , not involving the endpoints, such that a Also,

Unit rates with fractions, a math problem that involves the numbers $112 fo...

a math problem that involves the numbers $112 for 8 hours

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd