The expected monetary value method, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

The expected monetary value method

The expected pay off as profit associated with a described combination of act and event is acquired by multiplying the pay off for that act and event combination by the probability of occurrence of the described event. The expected monetary value or EMV of an act is the sum of all expected conditional profits associated along with that act

Illustration

A manager has a choice among

i.        A risky contract promising of shs 7 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 4 million along with probability 0.4 and

ii.      A diversified portfolio consisting of two contracts along with independent outcomes each promising Shs 3.5 million along with probability 0.6 and shs 2 million along with probability 0.4

Could you arrive at the decision by using EMV method?

Solution

The conditional payoff table for the problem may be constructed as given below:

(Shillings in millions)

Event Ei

Probability (Ei)

Conditional pay offs decision

Expected pay off  decision

 

(i)

Contract (ii)

Portfolio(iii)

Contract (i) x (ii)

Portfolio (i) x (iii)

Ei

0.6

7

3.5

4.2

2.1

E2

0.4

4

2

1.6

0.8

 

 

 

EMV

5.8

2.9

 

By using the EMV method the manager must go in for the risky contract that will yield him a higher expected monetary value of shs 5.8 million


Related Discussions:- The expected monetary value method

Children have their own strategies for learning maths, Children Have Their ...

Children Have Their Own Strategies For Learning Vibhor, aged 7, was once asked if he knew what 'seven lots of eight' are. He said he didn't. He was then asked, "Can you work it

Sketch the graph, Sketch the graph of                          y = ( x -...

Sketch the graph of                          y = ( x -1) 2  - 4 . Solution Now, it is a parabola .Though, we haven't gotten that far yet and thus we will have to select

North west corner method, What is the history of North west corner method i...

What is the history of North west corner method in transportation problem? Why there are only m+n-1 solution to the transportation problem?

Solve step by step, Use an appropriate infinite series method about x = 0 t...

Use an appropriate infinite series method about x = 0 to find two solutions of the given differential equation: y''''-xy''-y=0

Find the equation of circle concentric – coordinate geometry, 1. A point P(...

1. A point P(a,b) becomes (3,c) after reflection in x - axis, and (d,6) after reflection in the origin. Show that a = 3, b = - 6, c = 6, d = 2 2. If the pair of lines ax² + 2pxy

Geometry , solve for x and y 2x+3y=12 and 30x+11y=112

solve for x and y 2x+3y=12 and 30x+11y=112

How many cubic feet of steel is require to construct, A spherical holding t...

A spherical holding tank whose radius to the outer surface is 10 feet is constructed of steel 1 inch thick. How many cubic feet of steel is require to construct the holding tank? R

Linear programming , A paper mill produces two grades of paper viz., X and ...

A paper mill produces two grades of paper viz., X and Y. Because of raw material restrictions, it cannot produce more than 400 tons of grade X paper and 300 tons of grade Y paper i

Integer., How do we add integers

How do we add integers

The coordinate axes, Trace the curve y 2 = (x + 2) 2 (x - 6). Clearly sta...

Trace the curve y 2 = (x + 2) 2 (x - 6). Clearly state all the properties you have used for tracing it(e.g., symmetry about the axes, symmetry about the origin, points of interse

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd