Steps making DecisionTree

A decision tree is a graphical representation of decision process indicating decision alternatives, states of nature, related probabilities and conditional pay-offs for each combination of decision alternatives and states of nature. It shows all the possible choices that can be made as branches on the tree. And all the probable outputs for each selection as subsidiary branches on the tree.

Steps followed in making the tree are:

•    State the problem or recognize the objectives
•    Identify the possible causes of action, (i.e., decision alternative)
•    Recognize the possible states of nature/situations
•    Calculate approximately the probabilities for each state of nature
•    Estimate the restricted pay-off for each alternative and states of nature
•    Draw the decision tree

Compute the predictable monetary value at each state of nature node using the roll back method.