Probability statistics, statistics, Basic Statistics

Assignment Help:

Probability

3DP, a Luxembourg-based company plans to develop and sell highly specialized 3D printers. The cost of product development is estimated at EUR 50,000.-, irrespective of whether or not the product is finally marketed. The company owners put the odds of a successful product launch at 70%.

The market for such a sophisticated piece of equipment is rather limited: the number of orders is assumed to follow a binominal distribution. In the first quarter will definitely not exceed 20, and the probability of placing a single order is evaluated at 30%. The variable cost would amount to EUR 3,300.- and the final price tag would be set at EUR 15,500.-

As the company owners have secured the patent for their innovative technology, a viable alternative to launching the production is simply to sell the license. USAin3D, a U.S.-based company is a potential buyer offering USD 7,800.- (non-negotiable) and 3DP owners must take the final decision before three months.

By that time, of course, the EUR/USD exchange rate will surely change. A friend of 3DP owners, who happens to be a financial analyst, estimates that in three months' time the EUR/USD exchange rate will fall by not more than -10.504% with the probability of 2.5%. To make this estimate, he assumed that the percentage change of the EUR/USD exchange rate follows a normal distribution with (three-month) volatility of 5.9535%. The current (spot) EUR/USD exchange rate is equal 1.3684 (dollars per one euro).

Questions:

1. Estimate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) of the two options: product launch and selling the license. What should be the decision by the 3DP owners based solely on financial considerations? Is it a strong decision from the business point of view?

2. How would the EUR/USD exchange rate need to change in order for the 3DP owners to change their mind? What is the probability associated with such a fx movement?

Calculate the answers and present them in a short powerpoint presentation

 

 


Related Discussions:- Probability statistics, statistics

Explain Book value, Explain Book value The net quantity at which an advant...

Explain Book value The net quantity at which an advantage or asset group appears on the books of account, as distinguished from its marketplace or intrinsic value where book value

Interpolation and extrapolation, What is meant by interpolation and extrapo...

What is meant by interpolation and extrapolation. State the assumptions used for interpolation and extrapolation

Operational research, what is the defination of model in operational resea...

what is the defination of model in operational research?

Calorimetry, How do I calculate the temperature change of a sample?

How do I calculate the temperature change of a sample?

Revenue Recognition & Depreciation, Question 2 Pankratov Lakes is a new rec...

Question 2 Pankratov Lakes is a new recreational real estate development that consist of 500 Lake front and lake view lots. As a special incentive to the first 100 buyers of lake v

Variance analysis , Terry Co. manufactures a commercial solvent that is use...

Terry Co. manufactures a commercial solvent that is used for industrial maintenance. This solvent is sold by the drum and generally has a stable selling price. Due to a decrease in

Assignment , assume that your group is incorporating a business organizatio...

assume that your group is incorporating a business organization. you are required to present a detailed structure, business environment and organizational structure of the entity.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd