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A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times.He throws adie and reports it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.
Solution) we can get a six if a man says truth =3/4*1/6
or when he lies and it is not a six=1/4*5/6
so by bayes theorem=3/4*1/6 div by 1/4*5/6+3/4*1/6=3/8
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compare: 643,251: 633,512: 633,893. The answer is 633,512.
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