Probabilistic analysis - fire risk assessment , Other Engineering

Assignment Help:

Probabilistic analysis - Fire risk assessment:

Probabilistic analysis relies on data and data comes from experience.  The broader the experience, the larger the data source and the more accurate the data becomes.  Data gained from experience might tell us that we can generally expect there to be, for example, between 2 and 6 flat fires in a given city every Friday night.  The large data source (i.e. all the flats in the city - those that have fires and those that do not) ensures that we can be reasonably confident that this number of flat fires (between 2 and 6) will occur almost every Friday night.  This is the sort of data that is used to calculate how many fire appliances are needed in a city and where they should be located.

 

But if we try to use this data to predict the probability of a fire in a single particular flat on a single particular Friday night then we will run into difficulties.   It is not that we cannot manipulate the figures to come up with a probability, this can be done fairly easily.  For example, in a city with 100,000 flats the probability of a fire in a particular flat on a particular Friday night could be calculated as being between 2/100,000 and

6/100,000 or 0.00002 to 0.00006 or 0.002% to 0.006% and to extend this, if  we considered the flat over a period of 1,000 Friday nights (approximately 20 years) then the probability of a fire could be calculated as between 2% and 6%.   But all these figures would be wrong.

The data of between 2 and 6 flats every Friday night covers all flats in the city and those flats have a broad range of conditions and of type of people who live in them and of how well the flats are maintained.  The single particular flat that we are interested in might be very well maintained, in a luxury block occupied by very safety conscious people and the true probability of it having a fire on a Friday night might be virtually zero.     

Alternatively,  it  might  be  very  poorly  maintained,  in  a  semi-derelict  block occupied by people who have no sense of safety, in which case the probability of having a fire on a Friday night might be very high indeed.  If it was 1%, for example, we would expect there to be, on average one fire in the flat every two years.=

NFPA 551 does give guidance on assessing uncertainties and on 'What if?' analysis where foreseeable errors are built  into the assessment  process  but great caution should be used when attempting probabilistic fire risk analysis and generally such analysis would be best left to statisticians.

 

 


Related Discussions:- Probabilistic analysis - fire risk assessment

Reed solomon code, i have created simulink model for rs code with overlapp...

i have created simulink model for rs code with overlapped symbol and without overlapped symbol. and BIT ERROR RATE VERSUS EB/NO PLOT is observed for its performance analysis.but i

Skeleton pattern, A half skeleton pattern for a hollow pipe is shown. Since...

A half skeleton pattern for a hollow pipe is shown. Since the pipe is symmetrical about the pouring line, the same pattern will serve the purpose of moulding both the halves in two

Roll-compacting, Q. Describe the continuous production of metal strip by ro...

Q. Describe the continuous production of metal strip by roll compacting of powder. Differentiate between impregnation and infiltration. Ans. Roll-compacting : It is the

Cell arrays matlab, Expertsmind.com offers  Cell Arrays matlab assignment ...

Expertsmind.com offers  Cell Arrays matlab assignment help In matlab, Cell arrays are just like frequent arrays in that they are "indexed" details of information, with an out

Double cantilever beam, Double Cantilever Beam In the double cantilever...

Double Cantilever Beam In the double cantilever configuration, the ends of the sample are pulled apart, forcing a crack to propagate down the beam from one end. The figure belo

Providing alternative escape routes, Providing alternative escape routes: ...

Providing alternative escape routes: The first thing to check is if everyone can turn away from the fire and move safely away from it. For this to be the case there will

Problem, The following exchange rates are available to you. (You can buy or...

The following exchange rates are available to you. (You can buy or sell at the stated rates.) Mt. Fuji Bank ¥85.00/$ Mt. Rushmore Bank SF1.356/$ Mt. Blanc Bank ¥64.74/SF Assume t

Chaplets, Q. Explain the Chaplets.                                    ...

Q. Explain the Chaplets.                                                       OR  When are chaplets required in moulding practice? What is the material of the chaplets?

Students industrial work experience, Where are the recomended areas or indu...

Where are the recomended areas or industries where an Agricultural Engineering Student can apply for industrial training?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd