Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Net present value of project, Net present value of this project: ...

Net present value of this project: The following I/S is based on the information associated with a new project. Answer the questions. Projected Income Statem

Marginal cost of ?rm at equilibrium, Problem: Firm 1 produces cars and the ...

Problem: Firm 1 produces cars and the total cost of producing q cars is given as C(q) = 2q 2 + 5q. a) Assuming the ?rm operates in a perfectly competitive market. Write down th

Endowment, #quOn Completion of her introductory finance course, Kieran was ...

#quOn Completion of her introductory finance course, Kieran was so pleased with the amount of useful and interesting knowledge she gained that she convinced her parents, who were w

Importance of the dividend policy on the market value, The Directors of Roh...

The Directors of Rohan Plc are discussing the importance of the dividend policy on the market value of their firm. The Chairman considers that the dividend is important and does

Find the total value - debt and assets ratio, Kodak Corporation has debt/as...

Kodak Corporation has debt/assets ratio of .3, its cost of debt is 9% and that of equity 13%. The tax rate of Kodak is 30%. The company is not growing, has a dividend payout ratio

Advantages and disadvantages of overdraft, A factoring company has offered ...

A factoring company has offered a one-year agreement with Glub Ltd to both manage its debtors and advanced 80 per cent of the value of all its invoices immediately a sale is invoi

Calculate each partys net borrowing cost, Question: A U.S company has a...

Question: A U.S company has a liability of € 10 million in fixed rate loans outstanding at 6%. A German company has a $15 million Floating Rate Note outstanding at LIBOR. The e

Determine the current value of the bond, QUESTION Assume Venture Health...

QUESTION Assume Venture Healthcare sold bonds that a 10 year maturity, a 12% coupon rate with annual payments, and a $1,000 par value. a. Suppose that two years after the bo

Financial Analysis, Prepare a portfolio of analytical reference materials i...

Prepare a portfolio of analytical reference materials including the financial reports for at least five years. This is your analytical permanent file for the chosen company. (ii) M

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd