Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Solve it please, Question 1 If the economy booms, RTF, Inc. stock is expec...

Question 1 If the economy booms, RTF, Inc. stock is expected to return 10%. If the economy goes into a recessionary period, then RTF is expected to only return 4%. The probability

motives-valuation-financing-recommendations , 1. Motives - This section sh...

1. Motives - This section should include a detailed discussion of the main motives for the proposed acquisition supported by the latest academic literature and advances within the

What the implications of the pecking order theory, Question: i) Show th...

Question: i) Show the Modigliani-Miller irrelevancy theorem for corporate capital structure. What assumptions underline the theorem? ii) What the implications with the exis

Purchase, I purchased an answers document from your site 5 hours ago and it...

I purchased an answers document from your site 5 hours ago and it isn''t still delivered. It said that it would take up to 2 hours but it isn''t still delivered. When will it be de

Interpret the meaning of the dol, Company X produces tea kettles, which it ...

Company X produces tea kettles, which it sells for $12 each. Fixed costs are $650,000 for up to 400,000 units of output. Variable costs are $8 per kettle. a. What is the

Touring enterprises, what is the major value of the weighted cost of capita...

what is the major value of the weighted cost of capital calculation for the firm?

Valuation as determined by a multiple of EBITDA, is cash considered to be a...

is cash considered to be additive to this method of valuation?

Can the goal of maximizing the value of the stock co, Ask qCan the goal of ...

Ask qCan the goal of maximizing the value of the stock conflict with other goals such as avoiding unethical or illegal behavior? In particular, do subjects like customer and employ

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd