Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Activity quota, A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be m...

A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be meet up by a salesperson in the given time period. An activity quota may need a salesperson to create a certain number of

Examine the communication strategies that ncc may adopt, Question: The ...

Question: The National Coach Company (NCC), where you work as Marketing Manager, has agreed on a market development strategy. A key objective is to encourage 40% of car drivers

Evaluate loan balance, Consider Gavin, a new freshman who has just received...

Consider Gavin, a new freshman who has just received a Stafford student loan and started college.  He plans to obtain the maximum loan from Stafford at the beginning of each year.

American petroleum institute, This institute is a leading oil and gas indus...

This institute is a leading oil and gas industry trade association. The American Petroleum Institute is concerned with public policy and industry lobbying efforts, health and safet

Stocks, The stock price of Jenkins Co. is $53. Investors require a 12 perce...

The stock price of Jenkins Co. is $53. Investors require a 12 percent rate of return on similar stocks. If the company plans to pay a dividend of $3.15 next year, what growth rate

Evaluate the capital structure, Question: (a) According to Modigliani a...

Question: (a) According to Modigliani and Miller's Theory of Capital Structure (1963), companies should make maximum use of gearing. Briefly, describe factors which might pr

Assignment 2, created the firm''s pro forma balance sheet for the next fisc...

created the firm''s pro forma balance sheet for the next fiscal year?

What are potential limitations, Problem: "It is simply not really the c...

Problem: "It is simply not really the company's choice who is and is not a stakeholder" (a) Evaluate the above statement in the context of Civil Society Organisations as st

Growthg and assets, a firm wishes to maintain an internal growth rate of 6....

a firm wishes to maintain an internal growth rate of 6.5% and the dividend payout ratio of 25%. The current profit margin is 6%, and the firm uses no external financing sources. Wh

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd