Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

The campbell corporation is a manufacturer, I''d like to know how much will...

I''d like to know how much will a solution for "the Campbell corporation is a manufacture" will cost me?

Replacement decision, Baobab rolling mills owns a lathe machine which was p...

Baobab rolling mills owns a lathe machine which was purchased 10years ago at sh. 75 million. The machine had an expected life of 15 yrs at the time it was purchased, and management

Identify undervalued stocks, In an application of the concepts employed in ...

In an application of the concepts employed in the example problem and solution, this problem assigns the analysis like that of the example problem to the Food Processing indu

What is the value of equity of alpha, Two firms, Alpha and Beta, are in the...

Two firms, Alpha and Beta, are in the same business and size and identical in all respects except the way in which they have financed their assets. If the economy does well in th

Corporate identity in marketing, a) Describe what you understand by corpora...

a) Describe what you understand by corporate identity in marketing. b) Show how corporate identity is normally visibly manifested. c) Management has delegated you the role o

Stock exchange, considering floatation on the stock exchange, produce a rep...

considering floatation on the stock exchange, produce a report explaining advantage of such a move

Equal division - forecasting methods, Equal division divides M equally over...

Equal division divides M equally over the SKUs in N. Thus, There are two main reasons for including this simplistic approach. First, the approach is used by the case compan

M&A, How would you evaluate a proposed merger?

How would you evaluate a proposed merger?

What are the consequences of a budget deficit, Question 1: (i) How do ...

Question 1: (i) How do economists go about studying the economics of the public sector? Describe the four stages of analysis (ii) The level of government intervention dif

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd