Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

How do mergers affect communities, How do mergers affect communities? A:...

How do mergers affect communities? A: When a locally controlled bank is merged into a bank headquartered elsewhere (an out-of-market merger), some apprehension about the instit

Agency conflict and value added, how would the use of the concept of value ...

how would the use of the concept of value added reduce the problem of agency conflict

Efficiency, differentiate between pricing and allocative efficincy

differentiate between pricing and allocative efficincy

Explain the decision-making process, Question 1: (a) Explain the five p...

Question 1: (a) Explain the five principles of the bureaucratic approach to management as put forward by Max Weber. (b) What are the advantages and disadvantages of the bu

Types of fixed income securities, Question: i) Compare and contr...

Question: i) Compare and contrast the various types of fixed income securities. ii) ‘A new issue of callable bonds will generally carry a higher interest rate

Impact on uncertainty in the global foreign exchange markets, Question 1: ...

Question 1: i) Each of the following statements has been put forward as an explanation of determinants of exchange rate: a) ‘the increase in the value of a currency is becau

Valuing Stocks, From Finance.yahoo.com Part 1: Show the P/E ratio for each...

From Finance.yahoo.com Part 1: Show the P/E ratio for each company (as reported in finance.yahoo.com). Answer the question: Which of these two firms seems to be more of a "growth

High demand uncertainty, Fashion products in general are characterized by h...

Fashion products in general are characterized by high demand uncertainty, high stockout costs and a high risk of obsolescence (Lee, 2002). Although the speci?c mail order company t

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd