Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

What are the consequences of a budget deficit, Question 1: (i) How do ...

Question 1: (i) How do economists go about studying the economics of the public sector? Describe the four stages of analysis (ii) The level of government intervention dif

Financial modelling, Financial Modelling Read carefully the case notes ...

Financial Modelling Read carefully the case notes overleaf. Factor models on explaining firm's returns in a credit risk context. Is the usual one-factor model good enough?

Growthg and assets, a firm wishes to maintain an internal growth rate of 6....

a firm wishes to maintain an internal growth rate of 6.5% and the dividend payout ratio of 25%. The current profit margin is 6%, and the firm uses no external financing sources. Wh

Participative budgeting, You are required to provide an essay or report of ...

You are required to provide an essay or report of approx 500 words or less (excluding attachments and references),  accompanied by relevant calculations, in MS Word orPDF format ac

How do mergers affect small businesses?, How do mergers affect small busine...

How do mergers affect small businesses? A: According to a recent study by Federal Reserve and Wharton Financial Institutions Center economists, not a great deal. Their analysis

What is the repo rate, Problem: (a) What are the main functions of the...

Problem: (a) What are the main functions of the Bank of Mauritius? Give short comments on each function. (b) The Repo rate is an instrument of monetary policy for the Bank

Calculate the current price, a) Cookie Monster Inc. (a $15 billion snack fo...

a) Cookie Monster Inc. (a $15 billion snack food company) is considering acquiring Keebler Elves but is unsure of how much is should be willing to pay for the target firm.  At the

What do you understand by internal control, Question: The District Cash...

Question: The District Cash Offices represents the decentralisation of services provided by the Accountant - General Department, specially in the collection and accounting of r

Describe the term value management, Problem: (a) Describe the term "Va...

Problem: (a) Describe the term "Value Management" and what are the related benefits in applying such principles in a project?  In your opinion, how will Value Management

Calculate the optimum profit, XYZ plc has a Visitor Centre based in Perth. ...

XYZ plc has a Visitor Centre based in Perth.  The Centre houses exhibitions and educational resources to be used by schools, colleges and visitors.  It is a popular facility due to

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd