Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Replacement analysis, The Chang Co is considering the purchase of a new mac...

The Chang Co is considering the purchase of a new machine to replace an obsolete one. The machine being used for the operations has a book value and a market value of zero. However

Interested in your answers for this as an example, To determine Henkel''s c...

To determine Henkel''s corporate beta, unlever (and relever) the ordinary least squares (OLS) market betas for each company in the European Household and Personal Care segment. Pri

Illustrate the essential requisites of a promissory note, A promissory note...

A promissory note is an instrument in writing (not being a blank or a currency note) containing an unconditional undertaking, signed by the maker, to pay a certain sum of money onl

Estimate economic substance doctrine, A owns all of the X stock with a basi...

A owns all of the X stock with a basis of $200. A's three sons own all of the Y stock equally. X and Y each have E&P of $100, respectively. A sells one half of the X stock to Y

Capital budgeting and the cost of capital, Roman Roads has a number of capi...

Roman Roads has a number of capital projects available for investment this year but has access to a limited amount of capital.  Specifically, the firm has arranged to secure a $25

Venture, what is a co op society and its bye laws

what is a co op society and its bye laws

Bond ratings, why do investors pay attention to bond ratings?

why do investors pay attention to bond ratings?

Defining phoenix activity, A key challenge for any analysis or discussion o...

A key challenge for any analysis or discussion of phoenix activity is how to define the problem. There is currently no definition in Australian legislation. The approach in Austral

INVESTMENT DECISION, You are a ceo of a sotware firm that has limited acces...

You are a ceo of a sotware firm that has limited access to debt equity markets. The average return on last year projects is 28 % . and cost of capital is 12%. would npv pr Irr be

Differences between fundamental analysis, Question: (a) Distinguish b...

Question: (a) Distinguish between open-ended funds and closed-ended funds. (b) Briefly explain the differences between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. (c)

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd