Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Find net payment of the company, a)    Black Corp. currently has $65 millio...

a)    Black Corp. currently has $65 million worth of floating rate debts carried at an average rate of LIBOR + 2.6% that it would like to hedge against rising interest rates withou

Determine the tax loss on the sale, Jackson Corporation prepared the follow...

Jackson Corporation prepared the following book income statement for its year ended December 31, 2011: Sales

Have the large bank holding companies increased their market, Have the larg...

Have the large bank holding companies increased their market share at the expense of smaller institutions? A: No. A study conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York re

Replacement decision, Baobab rolling mills owns a lathe machine which was p...

Baobab rolling mills owns a lathe machine which was purchased 10years ago at sh. 75 million. The machine had an expected life of 15 yrs at the time it was purchased, and management

Explain foreign exchange market, Question: a) Using illustrative and ...

Question: a) Using illustrative and numerical examples, differentiate between arbitraging and speculation in the context of foreign exchange market. b) One year borrowing

Prepare a basic master budget, The first part requires you to prepare a bas...

The first part requires you to prepare a basic master budget. The general description is provided in Part A, in this document. However the data for the assignment is to be obtained

Equal division - forecasting methods, Equal division divides M equally over...

Equal division divides M equally over the SKUs in N. Thus, There are two main reasons for including this simplistic approach. First, the approach is used by the case compan

Capital Expenditure Decisions and Investment Criteria, Question 1: Capital ...

Question 1: Capital Expenditure Decisions and Investment Criteria (30 MARKS) In recent years Morten Ltd, a company that manufactures and markets a range of p

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd