Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Bond valuation, An investor buys a French government, 10-year bond, paying ...

An investor buys a French government, 10-year bond, paying annual coupon of 4.5%. Face value = 1000. The investor is unsure of his investment horizon and considers 5 horizons: 5, 6

Interest Rates and Bond Valuation, Bond J is a 4 percent coupon bond. Bond ...

Bond J is a 4 percent coupon bond. Bond K is a 12 percent coupon bond. Both bonds have 8 years to maturity, make semiannual payments and have a YTM of 7 percent....what are the mon

Pearson quiz and assignment, I would like to know if I can get some help co...

I would like to know if I can get some help completing my quiz for my finance class. The quiz consist of 10 questions

Differences between fundamental analysis, Question: (a) Distinguish b...

Question: (a) Distinguish between open-ended funds and closed-ended funds. (b) Briefly explain the differences between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. (c)

What is the minimum accrual rate, Question: Car Maker Ltd is a multinat...

Question: Car Maker Ltd is a multinational. In one of the countries where it is present, current legislation makes it compulsory for companies to pay a gratuity lump sum at ret

Illustrate a stakeholder mapping matrix, Many strategic decisions fail be...

Many strategic decisions fail because they do not attend to the interests and information held by key stakeholders. This scenario has prompted a stakeholder's approach to cor

Financial modelling, Financial Modelling Read carefully the case notes ...

Financial Modelling Read carefully the case notes overleaf. Factor models on explaining firm's returns in a credit risk context. Is the usual one-factor model good enough?

Briefly the automated clearing house different participants, Problem: (...

Problem: (a) The Automated Clearing House (ACH) is an electronic payment network used by individuals, businesses, financial institutions and government organisations. (i) Ou

Answer required ., What will be impact on the operating leverage of a firm,...

What will be impact on the operating leverage of a firm, if it proceeds for additional borrowings?

Debt finance, Differences btn debt finance and preferance share capital

Differences btn debt finance and preferance share capital

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd