Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

P/e ratio, P/E Ratio: When it comes to valuing stocks, the price/earnings ...

P/E Ratio: When it comes to valuing stocks, the price/earnings ratio is one of the highly oldest and most frequently used metrics. It is more than a measure of a company's past pe

Marginal cost of ?rm at equilibrium, Problem: Firm 1 produces cars and the ...

Problem: Firm 1 produces cars and the total cost of producing q cars is given as C(q) = 2q 2 + 5q. a) Assuming the ?rm operates in a perfectly competitive market. Write down th

When does a macss application event occur, Problem: (a) The Mauritius ...

Problem: (a) The Mauritius Automated Clearing and Settlement System (MACSS) is the Mauritian Real-time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system. (i) Outline briefly the concept of R

Endowment, #quOn Completion of her introductory finance course, Kieran was ...

#quOn Completion of her introductory finance course, Kieran was so pleased with the amount of useful and interesting knowledge she gained that she convinced her parents, who were w

Assignment 2, created the firm''s pro forma balance sheet for the next fisc...

created the firm''s pro forma balance sheet for the next fiscal year?

What do you understand by interest rate risk, Problem: Banks are net le...

Problem: Banks are net lenders, when they have excess funds, or net borrowers, when they have future deficits. As any lender or borrower, they cannot eliminate interest rate r

Net present value, Based on its Net Present Value (NPV), should the followi...

Based on its Net Present Value (NPV), should the following project be accepted?  Please assume a discount rate of 10%.

What is the repo rate, Problem: (a) What are the main functions of the...

Problem: (a) What are the main functions of the Bank of Mauritius? Give short comments on each function. (b) The Repo rate is an instrument of monetary policy for the Bank

Evaluate the annualized forward premium, Question: (a) A bank quotes t...

Question: (a) A bank quotes the following prices for the US dollar: €0.7915 - €0.7918 A German company receives €10 million as payment for a generator supplied to an Americ

Book value of equity, Book Value of Equity: This is the measure used by ow...

Book Value of Equity: This is the measure used by owners of common shares in a firm to determine the level of safety associated with each individual share after all debts are paid

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd