Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Core principles for effective banking supervision, Question: a) The ne...

Question: a) The new capital management framework provides an upgrade of the old version in terms of new risk management techniques. What is the scope of application for the n

Assignments, I need to know about corporate financial analysis

I need to know about corporate financial analysis

EBIT, Firm A has $10,000 in assets entirely financed with equity. Firm B al...

Firm A has $10,000 in assets entirely financed with equity. Firm B also has $10,000 in assets, but these assets are financed by $5,000 in debt (with a 10 percent rate of interest)

Abu dhabi investment authority - adia, ADIA is a government-owned investmen...

ADIA is a government-owned investment organization that administers the sovereign wealth fund for Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. As per the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute's rank

Find out the minimum number of shares, X is owned entirely by two individua...

X is owned entirely by two individuals, A and B (who are unrelated unless otherwise stated).  A owns 60 shares of X common stock (purchased in one transaction for $600).  B owns 40

Mergers and acquisitions had on a customers access to branc, What effect ha...

What effect have mergers and acquisitions had on a customers access to branches? A: A branch closing which has resulted from a merger need not necessarily mean a lost relations

Stock index options, Explain with proof that c >= max(S - X, 0), where c is...

Explain with proof that c >= max(S - X, 0), where c is the value of the European call option, S is the price of the underlying asset and X is the strike of the option. The follo

#title.finance., 3. Your firm has debt worth $200,000, with a yield of 9%, ...

3. Your firm has debt worth $200,000, with a yield of 9%, and equity worth $300,000. It is growing at a 5% rate, and its tax rate is 40%. A similar firm with no debt has a cost of

What is the beta of the portfolio, Question: There are two stocks, stoc...

Question: There are two stocks, stock A and stock B. The price of stock A today is $70. The price of stock A next year will be $50 if the economy is in recession, $80 if the ec

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd