Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Standard deviations and correlations, Suppose you are given the expected ye...

Suppose you are given the expected yearly returns and standard deviations and correlations shown in the tables below: The market portfolio has an expected return of 18% and

Defining phoenix activity, A key challenge for any analysis or discussion o...

A key challenge for any analysis or discussion of phoenix activity is how to define the problem. There is currently no definition in Australian legislation. The approach in Austral

IRR, Hello, can you help me to calculate the Discount rate and Internal Rat...

Hello, can you help me to calculate the Discount rate and Internal Rate of Return?

Calculate the annual economic value added, Westbrook Inc. is financed with ...

Westbrook Inc. is financed with debt that costs it 5% (pre-tax)or $12.5m annually and expects to generate an EBITof $50m per year perpetually. The company is at its target debt/eq

Debt financing, If the cost of debt is the lowest choice among financing op...

If the cost of debt is the lowest choice among financing options, would increasing our percentage of debt reduce our cost of capital?#

What is the value of the debt and the equity, A firm's assets have a market...

A firm's assets have a market value of $500m; the asset returns have a standard deviation of 25% per year.  The firm is financed with zero coupon debt having a face value of

Describe the black-scholes option pricing formula, Question: a) Write d...

Question: a) Write down and describe the Black-Scholes option pricing formula with respect to the various determinants of option prices. b) Determine the price of a European

Main types of estimating methodology, (a) Accurate estimation is crucial f...

(a) Accurate estimation is crucial for effective planning and control and is related with time, information, experience of estimator, techniques used and funding. Discuss the thre

Do mergers result in layoffs?, Do mergers result in layoffs? A: Overall...

Do mergers result in layoffs? A: Overall employment in the banking industry actually has increased slightly over the last ten years. Some mergers do result in layoffs. However,

Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2nd edition, The higher the rate of inter...

The higher the rate of interest the more likely you will elect to invest your funds and forego current consumption. Is this statement true or false?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd