Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Stock Valuation, How much of your estimate of the value of Reeby’s stock co...

How much of your estimate of the value of Reeby’s stock comes from the present value of growth opportunities? Reeby''s mini case study.

Role of corporate governance, There are eight directors on the Board of XYZ...

There are eight directors on the Board of XYZ plc - two non-executive directors and six executive directors.  Kyle XYZ is the Chairman and Chief executive of the company.  Of the s

Weighted average cost of capital, A tax rate of 20% has been introduced in ...

A tax rate of 20% has been introduced in the Frog Islands Republic. The value of Sun corporation is now 100.000€. Bright Star Co. debt has no changed. The required rate of return t

Accumulated dividend, It is a dividend on a share of cumulative preferred s...

It is a dividend on a share of cumulative preferred stock that has not still being paid to the shareholder. Accumulated dividends are the product of dividends that are carried forw

The credit term "2/45 net 90" indicates, Ask questThe credit term "2/45 net...

Ask questThe credit term "2/45 net 90" indicatesion #Minimum 100 words accepted#

Operational research, Fisher and Raman (1996), Fisher et al. (2001) propose...

Fisher and Raman (1996), Fisher et al. (2001) propose to let a number of experts within a company estimate the demand for a product. The demand is calculated as the average of the

Activity quota, A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be m...

A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be meet up by a salesperson in the given time period. An activity quota may need a salesperson to create a certain number of

What is implied forward rate of interest, Problem (a) The yields to ma...

Problem (a) The yields to maturity on five zero-coupon bonds are given below:                    Years to Maturity                 Yield (%)

Main types of estimating methodology, (a) Accurate estimation is crucial f...

(a) Accurate estimation is crucial for effective planning and control and is related with time, information, experience of estimator, techniques used and funding. Discuss the thre

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd