Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Estimate the sufficient taxable income, L has business assets worth $8 mill...

L has business assets worth $8 million and NOL carryovers of $1 million expiring in 14 years and of $2 million expiring in 15 years. 100% of L's stock is worth $10 million. The l

#titlefiscal policy.., Ask question #Minimum 100 words aapplicability of al...

Ask question #Minimum 100 words aapplicability of allocation function of fiscal policy#

Calculate the cost of capital for the project, Calculate the cost of capita...

Calculate the cost of capital for the project? (a) Describe how the weighted cost of capital for an MNC can be calculated? (b) Assume that a foreign project has a beta of 0.

Calculate the price of maturity assuming, a)    Calculate the price of a Eu...

a)    Calculate the price of a European style call option with 6 months left to maturity assuming a risk-free rate of 3.5% and a non-dividend paying stock which can change in price

NPV, The First Bank of Ellicott City has issued perpetual preferred stock w...

The First Bank of Ellicott City has issued perpetual preferred stock with a $100 par value. The bank pays a quarterly dividend of $1.65 on this stock. What is the current price of

evaluate the critical success factors, 1)   Select an organization that yo...

1)   Select an organization that you are familiar with and evaluate the steps needed to  transform  the business plans into Balance Score Cards & Key Performance Indicators 2)

Differences between fundamental analysis, Question: (a) Distinguish b...

Question: (a) Distinguish between open-ended funds and closed-ended funds. (b) Briefly explain the differences between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. (c)

Determinants of growth of a company in financial terms, Determinants of gro...

Determinants of growth - Profit Margin Dividend Policy   Financial Policy Total asset Turnover

Can the goal of maximizing the value of the stock co, Ask qCan the goal of ...

Ask qCan the goal of maximizing the value of the stock conflict with other goals such as avoiding unethical or illegal behavior? In particular, do subjects like customer and employ

Compute the expected return, You have ten million dollars to allocate acros...

You have ten million dollars to allocate across two projects, code named 'Wombat' and 'Marmot.' Both projects are somewhat scalable, in that you could potentially invest as much (u

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd