Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Correlation coefficiant, the variance of stock a is .004,the variance of ma...

the variance of stock a is .004,the variance of market is .007,co variance between two is .0026 calculate correlation coefficient

Calculate the net present value, Here is the pro-forma income statement for...

Here is the pro-forma income statement for Semen Indonesia, an overseas venture that Cemex is planning to invest in.  In this exercise, you will need to evaluate the inve

American petroleum institute, This institute is a leading oil and gas indus...

This institute is a leading oil and gas industry trade association. The American Petroleum Institute is concerned with public policy and industry lobbying efforts, health and safet

Efficiency, differentiate between pricing efficiency and allocative efficie...

differentiate between pricing efficiency and allocative efficiency

NPV, What is the present value of the following payment stream, discounted ...

What is the present value of the following payment stream, discounted at 7% annually: $1,200 at the end of year 1, $2,200 at the end of year 2, and $3,200 at the end of year 3?

Compare the financial system of the mauritius and usa, Question : (a) ...

Question : (a) Compare the financial system of the Mauritius and USA. Give differences between the two systems. (b) One of the facilities given by the financial system is

Activity quota, A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be m...

A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be meet up by a salesperson in the given time period. An activity quota may need a salesperson to create a certain number of

The credit term "2/45 net 90" indicates, Ask questThe credit term "2/45 net...

Ask questThe credit term "2/45 net 90" indicatesion #Minimum 100 words accepted#

Efficiency, differentiate between allocative efficiency and pricing efficie...

differentiate between allocative efficiency and pricing efficiency.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd