Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Find out the initial probability, a)    The option to expand the capacity o...

a)    The option to expand the capacity of a project can be viewed as owning what kind of option written on the underlying project?  Explain b)    The option to shutdown a proje

Describe reasons for corporate restructuring, 1. Describe three different...

1. Describe three different types of Mergers, and in what circumstances you expect to see each type occurring. 2. Just as Acquisitions and Mergers are a means by which compan

Illustrate a stakeholder mapping matrix, Many strategic decisions fail be...

Many strategic decisions fail because they do not attend to the interests and information held by key stakeholders. This scenario has prompted a stakeholder's approach to cor

Procter and Gamble, Summarize the key statistics for the stock and the indu...

Summarize the key statistics for the stock and the industry (choose 8 items you believe informative, such as P/E ratio, market capitalization, dividend yield, ROE, sales etc.tion..

Corporate Finance, Calculate the EAR of the following APR: a. APR at 10.8% ...

Calculate the EAR of the following APR: a. APR at 10.8% compounded monthly. (2 marks) b. APR at 8.4% compounded quarterly. (2 marks) c. APR at 9.0% compounded semi-annually. (2 mar

Interest rate parity, Explain what caused "the long boom" in the U.S. and w...

Explain what caused "the long boom" in the U.S. and world economy from the early 1980s to its peak in 2006.  Make sure to mention, with a few key facts in each case, the role playe

Banks, discuss in detail various sources ffom wherebabks can borrow funds w...

discuss in detail various sources ffom wherebabks can borrow funds within India

Mncs do increase their risk by borrowing foreign currencies, According to t...

According to those who are in favor of borrowing, the MNCs can achieve lower financing costs and hence their competing ability is improved. But according to the international fishe

Agency conflic, how would the concept of economic value added reduce the pr...

how would the concept of economic value added reduce the problem of agency conflict

WACC, CivilENG, LTD has a target capital structure of 35% debt and the rema...

CivilENG, LTD has a target capital structure of 35% debt and the remainder common equity. CivilENG’s cost of debt on the first $3 million borrowed is 7.5%, but that cost of debt in

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd