Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Bond ratings, why do investors pay attention to bond ratings?

why do investors pay attention to bond ratings?

Hihiiu, The approved budget for 1997, reduced government spending in housin...

The approved budget for 1997, reduced government spending in housing and urban development, health and human service, and education. Ignoring any other modifications, how would Cl

Economic value added-cost of equity , Course assessment: Company direct...

Course assessment: Company directors often believe that the stock market fails "correctly" to value the firms they manage, while investors are often alarmed by the volatility i

Competitive and efficient., Assume that there are two firms, firm A and fir...

Assume that there are two firms, firm A and firm B. The firms have identical present values at £10,000 and an identical future value profile as given in the picture below. The prob

Corporate identity in marketing, a) Describe what you understand by corpora...

a) Describe what you understand by corporate identity in marketing. b) Show how corporate identity is normally visibly manifested. c) Management has delegated you the role o

Preferred and common shares, Suppose cabela has 2 classes of shares. Prefer...

Suppose cabela has 2 classes of shares. Preferred and common, Cabela has 2000 shares of preferred, 4000 shares of common outstanding shares. The preferred class is 7% cumulative pr

Activity quota, A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be m...

A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be meet up by a salesperson in the given time period. An activity quota may need a salesperson to create a certain number of

Mergers and acquisitions had on a customers access to branc, What effect ha...

What effect have mergers and acquisitions had on a customers access to branches? A: A branch closing which has resulted from a merger need not necessarily mean a lost relations

What you understand by good corporate governance framework, Question: a...

Question: a) Explain what you understand by good corporate governance framework and its application to the local context. b) ‘The Borrower Protection Act 2007 was en

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd