Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Cash budget, You have been asked to prepare a cash budget for Whitborrow pl...

You have been asked to prepare a cash budget for Whitborrow plc for the next three months, October, November and December. The Managers are concerned that they may not have suffici

Explain static theory of capital structure, Question 1: (a) Show the fo...

Question 1: (a) Show the forces driving cross-border mergers that operate more strongly than the reasons for transactions that take place within a given country's border. (b

Calculate the required rate of return when beta increases, What will happen...

What will happen to the required rate of return (SML) if the following events occur: a)      Inflation expectations increase b)      Investors become more risk averse c)

Corporate Finance, Calculate the EAR of the following APR: a. APR at 10.8% ...

Calculate the EAR of the following APR: a. APR at 10.8% compounded monthly. (2 marks) b. APR at 8.4% compounded quarterly. (2 marks) c. APR at 9.0% compounded semi-annually. (2 mar

Corporate finance and governance perspective, From a Corporate Finance and ...

From a Corporate Finance and Governance perspective, the IMP is about answering three fundamental questions: 1. How much value does the organisation create/destroy today? 2.

Mr, PROBLEM 1 A friend of yours, employed as a Tier 2 field service repres...

PROBLEM 1 A friend of yours, employed as a Tier 2 field service representative for a telephony corporation, wants your help as a financial specialist to determine the financial co

LEVERAGE, what will be impact on the operating leverage of a firm if it pr...

what will be impact on the operating leverage of a firm if it proceeds for additional borrowings

Net Working Capital, #questionSelecting Kanton Company''s Financing Strateg...

#questionSelecting Kanton Company''s Financing Strategy and Unsecured Short-Term Borrowing Arrangement. Morton Mercado, the CFO of Kanton Company, carefully developed the estimate

Types of fixed income securities, Question: i) Compare and contr...

Question: i) Compare and contrast the various types of fixed income securities. ii) ‘A new issue of callable bonds will generally carry a higher interest rate

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd