Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Level of debt in its capital structure, Weaving Ltd is a medium-sized Mauri...

Weaving Ltd is a medium-sized Mauritian knitwear company. It assembles jumpers and other forms of knitwear clothing. Despite an adverse economic background, Weaving Ltd has been do

How competitive is the market for banking services?, How competitive is the...

How competitive is the market for banking services? A: With more than 7,000 banks and thrifts in the U.S., banking is one of the most competitive industries in the world. Consi

1.identify a limited liability company listed in the, Introduction to the c...

Introduction to the company and its business 2. From the information given in the financial statements, calculate the company’s operating and financial leverage. 3. Obtain the info

What the implications of the pecking order theory, Question: i) Show th...

Question: i) Show the Modigliani-Miller irrelevancy theorem for corporate capital structure. What assumptions underline the theorem? ii) What the implications with the exis

Dividends , I need help in Logit using Stata I am very new in that and my s...

I need help in Logit using Stata I am very new in that and my supervisor wants me to use panel data ... which model is best for me and why? no idea could you help me...

A-note, A-Note is the highest tranche of an asset backed security or anothe...

A-Note is the highest tranche of an asset backed security or another structured financial product. An A-note is superior to other notes, like B-notes in bankruptcy or other credit

Valuation as determined by a multiple of EBITDA, is cash considered to be a...

is cash considered to be additive to this method of valuation?

Book value of equity, Book Value of Equity: This is the measure used by ow...

Book Value of Equity: This is the measure used by owners of common shares in a firm to determine the level of safety associated with each individual share after all debts are paid

Ranking projects: NPV vs IRR Conflicts, how can i rank a project when there...

how can i rank a project when there are conflict between IRR & NPV

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd