Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Calculate the expected effective real rate of return, Question : (a) D...

Question : (a) Describe how cash flows are exchanged in an "interest rate swap". (b) A government issues a 90-day Treasury Bill at a simple rate of discount of 5% per annu

Merger, The Chocolate ice cream company and the vanilla ice cream company h...

The Chocolate ice cream company and the vanilla ice cream company have agreed to merge and form Fudge Swirl Consolidated.Both companies are exactly alike that are located in differ

Agency conflict and value added, how would the use of the concept of value ...

how would the use of the concept of value added reduce the problem of agency conflict

Impact of cost structure, You are required to provide a report of approx 50...

You are required to provide a report of approx 500 words or less (excluding attachments and references), accompanied by relevant calculations, in MS Word, MS Excel and/or PDF forma

How does depreciation affect cash flow, Define depreciation expense as it a...

Define depreciation expense as it appears on the income statement.How does depreciation affect cash flow? Accounting depreciation is the provision of an asset's initial cost ov

Cost accounting, As What is the major value of the weighted cost of capital...

As What is the major value of the weighted cost of capital calculation for the firm?k question #Minimum 100 words accepted#

Distinguish between natural hedging and cross-hedging, Question: (a) Is...

Question: (a) Is it feasible for a firm to hedge without using derivatives? (b) Distinguish between natural hedging, cross-hedging and direct hedging. (c) Mr Hedginglall

Derive the fund separation theorem, Question 1: (a) What are the compe...

Question 1: (a) What are the competing theories which have been put forward to explain the term structure of interest rates? Which theories do the evidence tend to support?

Consultancy Firm, You work for a major consultancy firms in corporate finan...

You work for a major consultancy firms in corporate finance. Your firm has been approached by one of its major clients to assist them in solving a problem that they have. You have

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd