Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

A-note, A-Note is the highest tranche of an asset backed security or anothe...

A-Note is the highest tranche of an asset backed security or another structured financial product. An A-note is superior to other notes, like B-notes in bankruptcy or other credit

Describe what a firm wants to achieve through pricing, Question: (a) ...

Question: (a) (i) Introduction and development- negative cash flows, low turnover, large overheads due to marketing expenses, marketing mix includes sales promotion.

Fundamentals of Corporate Finance 2nd edition, The higher the rate of inter...

The higher the rate of interest the more likely you will elect to invest your funds and forego current consumption. Is this statement true or false?

Distinguish between exchange traded instruments, Question: (a) What are...

Question: (a) What are the differences and similarities between futures and forwards? (a) Distinguish between exchange traded instruments and over the counter instruments

Net profit value & profitability index, hook industries is considering the ...

hook industries is considering the replacement of one of its old drill presses. three alternatives replacement presses are under consideration. the relevant cash flows associated w

Securitization- technique of bundling and off-loading risks, Question: ...

Question: (a) i. Expected loss= Exposure amount* probability of default* loss given default ii. Positive covenants= covenants that showing the direction to a company. P

WACC, CivilENG, LTD has a target capital structure of 35% debt and the rema...

CivilENG, LTD has a target capital structure of 35% debt and the remainder common equity. CivilENG’s cost of debt on the first $3 million borrowed is 7.5%, but that cost of debt in

Agency conflict and value added, how would the use of the concept of value ...

how would the use of the concept of value added reduce the problem of agency conflict

Dividend policies, discuss advantages and disadvantages of alternative divi...

discuss advantages and disadvantages of alternative dividend polices,ieno dividend pay out for the pst five years,dividend of 50% of earnings paid out,a low but constant dividend p

Financial reporting and analysis, I need immediate assistance with a financ...

I need immediate assistance with a finance project. Could you help?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd