Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Describe the mechanism of an interest rate swap, Question 1: Participan...

Question 1: Participants in a recent radio discussion on the WTO were full of ideas. The WTO could do this, the WTO should do that, they said. One of them finally interjected:

Calculate the profitability ratio, You are a new member of the accounting t...

You are a new member of the accounting team and have been asked to examine the accounts of Bellatrix and calculate appropriate ratios in order to evaluate the company's performance

RISK AND RETURN, A person is willing to sell some stock

A person is willing to sell some stock

Bonds, you buy a car for ths 10000000 to be repaid in 3 years, with annua i...

you buy a car for ths 10000000 to be repaid in 3 years, with annua interest of 12%. preapare a loan amortization table

Balance scorecard, hey i need help creating a balance scorecard how long wi...

hey i need help creating a balance scorecard how long will that take >>?

Efficiency, differentiate between aloocative effiency and pricing effiency

differentiate between aloocative effiency and pricing effiency

Describe the essential characteristics of money, Question: (a) Describ...

Question: (a) Describe the essential characteristics of money. (b) Keynes identified three motives for holding balances of money. (i) What are these three motives?

Top flop division - forecasting methods, Top-flop division is based on the ...

Top-flop division is based on the idea that the demand percentages of the 'top' and the 'flop' SKUs in a group of SKUs are fairly stable over time. For example, the 33% best-sellin

Divident, Critically appraise how companies set their dividend policies, an...

Critically appraise how companies set their dividend policies, and explain the factors that a company will consider in setting its dividend policy and in determining the level of d

Mergers & Acquisitins, Relationship between the size of companies and the r...

Relationship between the size of companies and the role of M & A

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd