Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Consultancy Firm, You work for a major consultancy firms in corporate finan...

You work for a major consultancy firms in corporate finance. Your firm has been approached by one of its major clients to assist them in solving a problem that they have. You have

Top - down methods, For a large set of SKUs and in two successive selling s...

For a large set of SKUs and in two successive selling seasons, we have compared the accuracy of three quantitative forecasting methods based on advance (preview) demand information

Cost accounting, As What is the major value of the weighted cost of capital...

As What is the major value of the weighted cost of capital calculation for the firm?k question #Minimum 100 words accepted#

Compare the forecasting methods, In this section, we will compare the ?ve f...

In this section, we will compare the ?ve forecasting methods using the case study data described in Section 4. Methods 1-3 will ?rst be compared for the full data set (assortment g

Replacement decision, Baobab rolling mills owns a lathe machine which was p...

Baobab rolling mills owns a lathe machine which was purchased 10years ago at sh. 75 million. The machine had an expected life of 15 yrs at the time it was purchased, and management

INTRODUCTION TO FINANCIAL MARKETS, DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN ALLOCATIVE EFFICIE...

DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY AND PRICING EFFICIENCY

Capital structure, a)  Use excel of a financial calculator to estimate the ...

a)  Use excel of a financial calculator to estimate the IRR of the following business opportunity:  Initial cost of $100,000, expected pre-tax annual cash flows of $54,000 for the

Determine the lease rate, Robert Shapprio Leasing CO (40% tax rate) I deter...

Robert Shapprio Leasing CO (40% tax rate) I determining leae rate for a number of equipment . it is allowed to use the following accelerated depreciation rate 3 years: 25%   38%

Bond valuation, An investor buys a French government, 10-year bond, paying ...

An investor buys a French government, 10-year bond, paying annual coupon of 4.5%. Face value = 1000. The investor is unsure of his investment horizon and considers 5 horizons: 5, 6

Calculate the rate of return, Question: A. Explain in details two secur...

Question: A. Explain in details two securities quoted at par and two securities quoted on a discount. B. Calculate the return on a deposit of £ 1,000,000 bearing an annual

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd