Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Prepare a quarterly cash budget, You are the Executive Director for the bra...

You are the Executive Director for the brand new Burkina Faso field office of a U.S.- based not-for-profit organization called Paper for All that distributes academic resources fo

Methods based on advance demand information, Table gives the average MAPE f...

Table gives the average MAPE for all SKUs with positive preview demand together (overall) and also per preview demand class. Furthermore, the error percentages in bold were signi?c

Financial, Initial investment outlay of $30 million, consisting of $25 mill...

Initial investment outlay of $30 million, consisting of $25 million for equipment and $5 million for net working capital (NWC) (plastic substrate and ink inventory); NWC recoverabl

Expert triangulation - forecasting methods, Method is the ?rst of two metho...

Method is the ?rst of two methods proposed by Mantrala and Rao (2001) and has been reviewed in Section 2.We use a simpli?ed version, with ?xed prices and for a single period. Furth

Mergers & acquisitions , Mergers & Acquisitions now is playing crucial role...

Mergers & Acquisitions now is playing crucial role in modern corporate finance world. For any prospects, there is only one reason for a firm making an offer to M&A another firm,

How garch modelling is related to hedging, Question: σ 2 t = β 0 + ...

Question: σ 2 t = β 0 + β 1 σ 2 t - 1 + λ 1 ε 2 t -1 (a) Interpret parameter 1 and 1 in model (1) and derive the long-term unconditional variance. (b) What

Debt finance, Differences btn debt finance and preferance share capital

Differences btn debt finance and preferance share capital

Weighted average cost of capital, A tax rate of 20% has been introduced in ...

A tax rate of 20% has been introduced in the Frog Islands Republic. The value of Sun corporation is now 100.000€. Bright Star Co. debt has no changed. The required rate of return t

Capital structure, what is the separation theorem? what are majour implicat...

what is the separation theorem? what are majour implications for financial decision making

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd