Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Capital structure, What the implications of the pecking order theory?

What the implications of the pecking order theory?

Agency conflict and value added, how would the use of the concept of value ...

how would the use of the concept of value added reduce the problem of agency conflict

Calculate the pv and npv, Suppose you take out a loan of $10,000, repayable...

Suppose you take out a loan of $10,000, repayable by five equal annual instalments. The interest rate is 10% per year. (a) How much do you need to repay per year to the nearest ce

Stock market, Let there be a village with two farmers, Tommy and Freddy. To...

Let there be a village with two farmers, Tommy and Freddy. Tommy grows rice and Freddy grows cactus. When the weather is dry then Tommy's investment in cactus has an above average

Compxm exam, can you assist with the all the rounds in compxm exam?

can you assist with the all the rounds in compxm exam?

Discuss assumptions underlying the diversification theory, Question: a)...

Question: a) You have just been appointed a portfolio manager of Malou investment. An investor has two assets available from which to form his desired portfolio. Asset X has a

Accumulated dividend, It is a dividend on a share of cumulative preferred s...

It is a dividend on a share of cumulative preferred stock that has not still being paid to the shareholder. Accumulated dividends are the product of dividends that are carried forw

Nature of the efficient markets hypothesis, Question 1: i) Check the na...

Question 1: i) Check the nature of the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH). ii) Describe how the different forms of efficiency can be tested. Support your answer with some e

Calculating project OCF, Nipissing, Inc,, is considering a new three year e...

Nipissing, Inc,, is considering a new three year expansion project that requires an initial fixed asset investment of $2.4 million. The fixed asset falls in CCA Class 8 with a a 20

Report of a questionable, Please l have an assignment and l want to send th...

Please l have an assignment and l want to send the document to you so that you will send it to the Tutors on Chegg to help me with it. Can l send it please?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd