Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

DIVIDEND POLICY, The managing directors of three profitable listed companie...

The managing directors of three profitable listed companies discussed their company’s dividend policies at a business lunch. Company A has deliberately paid no dividends for the p

WACC, CivilENG, LTD has a target capital structure of 35% debt and the rema...

CivilENG, LTD has a target capital structure of 35% debt and the remainder common equity. CivilENG’s cost of debt on the first $3 million borrowed is 7.5%, but that cost of debt in

Valuation of firms, I have done most of my work on myfinancelab.com need so...

I have done most of my work on myfinancelab.com need someone to complete the rest. Deadline is this sunday. Can i get help on that?

Implications of markets for international banking, i) Differentiate between...

i) Differentiate between a revolver loan and a rollover and give an explanation of the syndicated loan in the Eurocurrency market? ii) Can onshore banking and offshore co exist

Maturity of Bond, Cavo Corp. has 9 percent coupon bonds making annual payme...

Cavo Corp. has 9 percent coupon bonds making annual payments with a YTM of 8.3 percent. The current yield on these bonds is 8.65 percent. How many years do these bonds have le

Dividend policies, discuss advantages and disadvantages of alternative divi...

discuss advantages and disadvantages of alternative dividend polices,ieno dividend pay out for the pst five years,dividend of 50% of earnings paid out,a low but constant dividend p

Fin, Archer Daniels Midland Company is considering buying a new farm that i...

Archer Daniels Midland Company is considering buying a new farm that it plans to operate for 10 years. The farm will require an initial investment of $12.10 million.

Solve it please, Question 1 If the economy booms, RTF, Inc. stock is expec...

Question 1 If the economy booms, RTF, Inc. stock is expected to return 10%. If the economy goes into a recessionary period, then RTF is expected to only return 4%. The probability

Describe and derive the fund seperation theorem, Question 1: (a) Descri...

Question 1: (a) Describe the following stock market anomalies which have been documented in the finance literature: (i) the January effect (ii) the Size effect (iii) t

Cost accounting, As What is the major value of the weighted cost of capital...

As What is the major value of the weighted cost of capital calculation for the firm?k question #Minimum 100 words accepted#

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd