Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Forecasting demand, The problem considered is that of forecasting demand fo...

The problem considered is that of forecasting demand for single-period products before the period starts. We study this problem for the case of a mail order apparel company that ne

Stock exchange, considering floatation on the stock exchange, produce a rep...

considering floatation on the stock exchange, produce a report explaining advantage of such a move

Describe statistical control- product and services, This subject has a majo...

This subject has a major individual assignment consisting of a number of tasks (parts). The assignment has been designed with the aim of providing you a practical application case

DIVIDEND POLICY, The managing directors of three profitable listed companie...

The managing directors of three profitable listed companies discussed their company’s dividend policies at a business lunch. Company A has deliberately paid no dividends for the p

Bond ratings, why do investors pay attention to bond ratings?

why do investors pay attention to bond ratings?

NPV Best Case/Worst Case, Ask que We are evaluating a project that costs $8...

Ask que We are evaluating a project that costs $800,000, has an eight-year life, and has no salvage value. Assume that depreciation is straight-line to zero over the life of the pr

Correlation coefficiant, the variance of stock a is .004,the variance of ma...

the variance of stock a is .004,the variance of market is .007,co variance between two is .0026 calculate correlation coefficient

Activity quota, A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be m...

A minimum level of sales-oriented activities that must be meet up by a salesperson in the given time period. An activity quota may need a salesperson to create a certain number of

Explain the traditional view of credit risk, The traditional view of credit...

The traditional view of credit risk relates to borrowers, firms, individuals, or financial institutions. Nevertheless, more and more specialized finance transactions deal with str

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd