Priori forecasting, Corporate Finance

Assignment Help:

Chang and Fyffe (1971) assume that a ?rm has a ''long-run sales history of individual seasonal-style-goods SKUs or groups of such SKUs''. They propose to estimate demand by using regression on those historic sales, also based on the ''outcome of some observable variable''. However, they do not explain in detail how that can be done nor do they test the method using real data. It seems dif?cult to apply this method in the apparel industry, as long-run sales histories of very similar products are rare.

Chambers and Eglese (1988) discuss the use of preview demand data that are gathered by sending out a preview catalogue (whichdoes not necessarily include a full product range) to a sample comprised of several thousand regular customers and offering themthe opportunity to order products at a discount before the season starts. They assume that an aggregate forecast for the full product range is given, and propose to forecast the demand for a product line by multiplying the aggregate forecast with the fraction of total preview demand for products in that product line. They further propose a second, slightly more sophisticated forecasting method,which takes into account that the ratio of total demand to preview demand ('the scaling factor') may not be the same for all  product lines. These methods are very suitable and, indeed, have been developed for an apparel mail order company.

Thomassey and Happiette (2007) propose a decision-support system based on neural networks, which automatically performs item sales forecasting. The system is designed to deal with many characteristics of the apparel market: large number of items, short lifetimes, substitution of most items with each new collection, long lead times, and in?uence of many external factors like the weather,promotions, fashion, and the economic environment. The proposed system is composed of three steps: obtain prototypes of demand behavior using a clustering procedure on historical demand data, (2) link these prototypes to descriptive criteria (e.g. price, lifespan or materials) using a probabilistic neural network, and (3) assign each new item to a prototype based on the item's descriptive criteria. Forecasts generated by the proposed model on a set of 285 new items from a French apparel distributor have a MAPE of 147%. So, accuracy is low despite the complexity of the method. For this reason, we decided not to include this method in our comparative study. The results in Section 5 will show that the simpler methods that we do consider are all more accurate (for our data set).


Related Discussions:- Priori forecasting

Hw question on IRR, Your firm is contemplating the purchase of a new $791,0...

Your firm is contemplating the purchase of a new $791,000 computer-based order entry system. The system will be depreciated straight-line to zero over its seven-year life. It will

Assinment, Profit for the year R3 million R4 million Gross dividends...

Profit for the year R3 million R4 million Gross dividends R1.5 million R2 million Market value per ordinary share R4 R1.60 Number of ordinary shares 5

CURRENT PRICE SHARE, Assume the market returns to be 9% and the risk-free r...

Assume the market returns to be 9% and the risk-free rate to be 1.25%. Assume also that shell has just paid an annual dividend of $1.41 and that dividends will grow at 5% for the f

1.identify a limited liability company listed in the, Introduction to the c...

Introduction to the company and its business 2. From the information given in the financial statements, calculate the company’s operating and financial leverage. 3. Obtain the info

Calculate the true share price, GeKay stock is worth $100, or $80, or $60. ...

GeKay stock is worth $100, or $80, or $60. Investors believe that each case is equally likely so that the current share price is the average, namely $80.  Suppose Mr. Satanak, th

IFRS15, Ask q• Effect of incorrect recognition of revenue on financial repo...

Ask q• Effect of incorrect recognition of revenue on financial reports of IFRS15

Corporate Finance, Calculate the EAR of the following APR: a. APR at 10.8% ...

Calculate the EAR of the following APR: a. APR at 10.8% compounded monthly. (2 marks) b. APR at 8.4% compounded quarterly. (2 marks) c. APR at 9.0% compounded semi-annually. (2 mar

Sales and lost demand data, The total sales are not necessarily equal to to...

The total sales are not necessarily equal to total demand, since some demand may have been lost. For the case that lost demand is not recorded at all, Fisher et al. (2000) propose

Financial model, Think of any business you would like to open in Lebanon (f...

Think of any business you would like to open in Lebanon (from small to big project) and prepare a preliminary income statement from five to eight years maximim. Compute the expecte

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd