Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

Differences in working capital for different industries, Differences in wor...

Differences in working capital for different industries   Manufacturing Retail Service Inventories H

Benefits of e-trading, QUESTION (a) (i) Outline some capabilities of E-...

QUESTION (a) (i) Outline some capabilities of E-Trading. (ii) List three benefits of E-Trading. (b) (i) How can privacy be affected in E-Banking? (ii) Outline two meas

Calculate the cumulative probability , Compound options are usually cheaper...

Compound options are usually cheaper than vanilla options and we know that there are four main types of compound options: a call on a call; a put on a call; a call on a put; a put

Treasury returns resulting from yield curve movements, Robert Litterman and...

Robert Litterman and Jose Scheinkman were the first to study how changes in the shapes of the yield curve affect the total return on the Treasury securities. The histor

Spot transaction hedge/Money market hedge, There are three parts to this qu...

There are three parts to this question. Please answer all parts. The Chicken Company, a company with headquarters in Switzerland, has a receivable of one million euro, which it wil

Operating cycle, applicability of operating cycle in poultry

applicability of operating cycle in poultry

Determine the key factor affecting financing costs, Determine The key facto...

Determine The key factor affecting financing Costs Because cost of capital is measured under the assumption that both firm's asset structure and its capital (financial) structu

Calculate actual returns using the dividend discount model, You've just won...

You've just won a huge $100 million lottery.  You've decided to invest your winnings in the following way:  $30 million in real estate,  $30 million in  corporate bonds and $40 mil

Explain about discount rate, Q. Explain about Discount Rate? Discount R...

Q. Explain about Discount Rate? Discount Rate - Rate at which INTEREST is deducted in advance of the issuance, selling, purchasing or lending of a financial instrument. Also, t

Explain about opportunity cost of capital, Explain about opportunity cost o...

Explain about opportunity cost of capital Risk free rate compensates for opportunity lost and risk premium compensates for risk. It can also be known as the 'opportunity cost o

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd