Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

How much your investments will be worth at retirement time, Suppose you are...

Suppose you are planning to make regular contributions in equal payments to an investment fund for your retirement. Which formula would you use to figure out how much your investme

What is substantive test, what is Substantive tests or transactions based a...

what is Substantive tests or transactions based auditing Tests to attain audit evidence to detect material misstatements in financial statements. Using analytical procedures an

Longer-term bonds and short-term bonds, Questions How is a bond like...

Questions How is a bond like a loan?                                               How does an investor receive a return from buying a bond?  Does a bond's yield to ma

Manage Budget and Financial Report, Complete the financial reporting for ea...

Complete the financial reporting for each period and develop recommendations using the templates provided. Procedure 1. Read the case study. 2. Complete the financial reports

Just-in-time inventory management processes, Q. Just-in-time inventory mana...

Q. Just-in-time inventory management processes? Just-in-time (JIT) inventory management processes seek to eliminate any waste that arises in the manufacturing process as a resu

Corporate governance, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE Corporate governance can be ...

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE Corporate governance can be stated in different ways, for example: The Private Sector Corporate Governance Trust (PSCGT) defines that corporate governan

Cash flow of reverse convertibles, (a) Let's presume that the firm may defa...

(a) Let's presume that the firm may default only on last coupon payment date and that when this take place stock price would be less than some predetermined price K at the expira

Cost of equity share capital, Q. Cost of Equity Share Capital? Cost of ...

Q. Cost of Equity Share Capital? Cost of Equity Share Capital: - The cost of equity is the utmost rate of return that the company should earn on equity financed position of its

Case let, Which type of financing is appropriate to each firm

Which type of financing is appropriate to each firm

Determine the return on invested capital, 1.      Consider the following tw...

1.      Consider the following two investment alternatives   Net cash flow   End of year Machine A Machine

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd