Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

Profitability ratios, A holder in debt obligation, though does not ha...

A holder in debt obligation, though does not have any opportunity to share in the economic growth of the firm, is interested in a firm's profitability because it

Assignment, 1. If Robinson wishes to maximize its total market value, would...

1. If Robinson wishes to maximize its total market value, would you recommend that it issue debt or equity to finance the land purchase? Explain. 2. Construct Robinson’s market va

Case let 2, how would you judge the potential profit of Bajaj Electronics o...

how would you judge the potential profit of Bajaj Electronics on the first year of sales to booth plastice and give your views to to increase the profit

Proper credit management, If a credit manager experience no bad debt losses...

If a credit manager experience no bad debt losses over the past year. Would this be an indication of proper credit management? Why or why not

State the peter drucker rules for acquisitions, Peter Drucker gave five rul...

Peter Drucker gave five rules for acquisitions to be more successful. Contribution e.g. the acquirer can add value to the target organisation other than just providing mone

What is the maximum additional short-term funding, B.J. Industries has a cu...

B.J. Industries has a current ratio of 2.5, with $2.5 million in current assets.  Due to sales growth, the company wants to expand accounts receivable and inventories by

Determine the cash flow budget - monthly cash disbursement, Your friend Pet...

Your friend Peter is planning to set up a new business which will manufacture and sell wooden tables. The parts that make up the table consist of a wooden table top measuring 1m by

Cost of redeemable preference share capital, Q. Cost of Redeemable Preferen...

Q. Cost of Redeemable Preference Share Capital? Cost of Redeemable Preference Share Capital: - Redeemable preference capital has to be returned to the preference shareholders s

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd