Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

Research and development and marketing costs, a) Product orientated busines...

a) Product orientated businesses tend to be produce products and inward looking that they hope will sell in the marketplace. For example, Sony hoped that its $101,500 audio systems

Project, Starbucks future cash flows

Starbucks future cash flows

Answer key, the approach focussed mainly on the financial problems of a cor...

the approach focussed mainly on the financial problems of a corporate enterprise

Common-size balance sheet and income statement, The question to be answere...

The question to be answered is : "Since the 1990 opening of stock exchanges, China started to use financial statements to determine the performance of listed companies. What were c

Parallel trade, Parallel T rade It is a form of countertrade th...

Parallel T rade It is a form of countertrade that involves the execution of 2 distinct and individually enforceable contracts: the first for the sale of goods by an exp

Step by step approach to completing a statement, Step by step approach to ...

Step by step approach to completing a statement of cash flows Step by step approach to completing a statement of cash flows Step 1

Market efficiency, Market Efficiency Though there are various markets p...

Market Efficiency Though there are various markets present in the financial system, the ease with which the transfer of funds take place depends on the level of efficiency pres

Globalization of the financial markets, Globalization of the Financial Mark...

Globalization of the Financial Markets There are many economies in the world that have opened their gates for foreign participants and companies. Trading takes place not only i

Callability, It is a feature that allows the issuer to redeem its bon...

It is a feature that allows the issuer to redeem its bonds before maturity. Almost all convertible bonds come with this feature. Due to this feature, bonds carry

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd