Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

Treasury notes or t-notes, Treasury Notes or T-notes are the securiti...

Treasury Notes or T-notes are the securities issued with maturities of more than one year and but not more than 10 years. All these securities are coupon securiti

Contrast a benefit and a defined contribution pension plan, Compare and con...

Compare and contrast a defined benefit and a defined contribution pension plan. In defined benefit plan retirement remuneration are determined by a formula that typically

Define the price and earning ratio valuation method, Define the P/E valuati...

Define the P/E valuation method. Under what circumstances should a stock be valued using this method? The P/E ratio points out how much investor are willing to pay for each dol

Explain the benefits of benchmarking, Explain the Benefits of benchmarking ...

Explain the Benefits of benchmarking - Better understanding of business, competition and customers. - Improves business performance and discourages complacency. - Good wa

Money market mutual fund, Money Market Mutual Fund Even as the Mutual F...

Money Market Mutual Fund Even as the Mutual Funds show a promise of becoming a major instrument of household savings, another concept which is being talked about and waiting to

What is non - diversifiable risk, What is nondiversifiable risk? How is it ...

What is nondiversifiable risk? How is it measured? If not the returns of one-half the assets in a portfolio are perfectly negatively correlated along with the other half-which

What are the options available for growth, What are the options available f...

What are the options available for growth Joint venture   A joint venture is when a separate company is formed, in which every member holds an equity st

Illustrate the steps of creative accounting, Illustrate the steps of Creati...

Illustrate the steps of Creative accounting Creative accounting include: 1 Timing of transactions. Delaying or hurrying up the despatch of invoices at the yearend to decr

What do disclaimer of opinion, Disclaimer of Opinion - Statement by an AUDI...

Disclaimer of Opinion - Statement by an AUDITOR indicating inability to express an opinion on the fairness of FINANCIAL STATEMENTS provided and reason for the inability. The audito

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd