Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

Calculation of variances, a) Distinguish among standard costing and budgeta...

a) Distinguish among standard costing and budgetary control.  (b)"Calculation of variances in standard costing is not an end in itself, but a means  to an end" Brief discussion

Define coefficient of variation often a better risk measure, Why is the coe...

Why is the coefficient of variation often a better risk measure when comparing different projects than the standard deviation? While we want to compare the risk of investments whi

Financial assets, Financial assets: Financial assets/instruments repres...

Financial assets: Financial assets/instruments represent the financial obligations that arise when the borrower raises funds in the financial market. In exchange for the funds

Illustrate the steps of creative accounting, Illustrate the steps of Creati...

Illustrate the steps of Creative accounting Creative accounting include: 1 Timing of transactions. Delaying or hurrying up the despatch of invoices at the yearend to decr

Determine the investment to maximize the return, Assume that the treasurer ...

Assume that the treasurer of a company has an extra cash reserve of $1,000,000 to invest for six months. The six-month interest rate is 8% per year in the U.S. and 6% per year in G

Evaluate certainty equivalent coefficient, Q. Evaluate Certainty Equivalent...

Q. Evaluate Certainty Equivalent Coefficient? Illustration: - Presume the risky cash flow is Rs. 200000 and the riskless cash flow is Rs. 140000. The Certainty Equivalent Co

Time value of money, TIME VALUE OF MONEY Time value of money can be de...

TIME VALUE OF MONEY Time value of money can be described as the value of a unit of money at different time periods.  It involves that the value of a unit of money is not same

Explain about death benefit, Q. Explain about Death Benefit? Death Bene...

Q. Explain about Death Benefit? Death Benefit - Amounts received under a life insurance contract and paid by reason of death of the insured. (Even though most death benefits ar

Equilibrium of an exchange economy, The economy consists of two consumers, ...

The economy consists of two consumers, A and B. Both consumers are endowed with one unit of good 1 and one unit of good 2. Consumer A is entirely indi?erent between all consumption

Example on interest rate movements, Q. Example on interest rate movements? ...

Q. Example on interest rate movements? Cap/floor volatility is consideration to be higher than swaption volatility because the market buys volatility trough swaptions as well a

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd