Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

What is the maximum additional short-term funding, B.J. Industries has a cu...

B.J. Industries has a current ratio of 2.5, with $2.5 million in current assets.  Due to sales growth, the company wants to expand accounts receivable and inventories by

Importance of inventory management, Q. Importance of Inventory Management ...

Q. Importance of Inventory Management 1) Inventory helps in smooth and efficient running of business. 2) Inventory provide service to the customers immediately or at a short

Balance sheet and income statement, Do these two problems in Excel. Balance...

Do these two problems in Excel. Balance Sheet and Income Statement.  The following information is used for the first two problems.  Problem 1 is the income statement and problem 2

Techniques of inventory control, Examine the reasons for holding inventorie...

Examine the reasons for holding inventories by a firm & also discuss the techniques of inventory control

Illustrations of substantive tests, Illustrations of substantive tests ...

Illustrations of substantive tests Agree a sample of wages payments to the existence of these individuals and personnel records. Agree a sample of cashbook payments to

What are financial markets? why do they exist?, What are financial markets?...

What are financial markets? Why do they exist? Monetary markets are where financial securities are sold and bought.  They exist mainly to bring surplus economic units (those ha

Explain how bank eliminate the currency exposure, Banks find it essential t...

Banks find it essential to accommodate their client’s requirements to buy or sell foreign exchange forward, in many examples for hedging purposes.  How can the bank eliminate the c

Changes in liquidity risk, Liquidity risk tends to change as and when...

Liquidity risk tends to change as and when there exists a change in the spread between the bid and the ask price. Market liquidity change is a matter of concern f

Convertible bonds, Convertible bonds are the debt instruments issued which ...

Convertible bonds are the debt instruments issued which can be converted after a pre-specified date for a pre-specified number of securities (generally equity stock). I

Monetary approach to the Exchange Rate, a The Monetary Approach to the ER. ...

a The Monetary Approach to the ER. All else equal, an increase in the interest rate in Canada is associated, in the long run, with higher prices in Canada and an appreciated exchan

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd