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Decision making under uncertainty
Various methods are used to make decision in circumstances whereas only the pay offs are identified and the likelihood of every state of nature are identified
a) Maximin Method
This criterion is based upon the "conservative approach' to suppose that the worst possible is going to occur. The decision maker considers every strategy and locates the minimum pay off for each and then selects that alternative that maximizes the minimum payoff
Demonstration
Rank the products A, B and C applying the Maximin rule b using the given payoff table showing potential losses and profits which are expected to arise from launching these three products in three market situation
Pay off table in £ 000's
Boom condition
Steady state
Recession
Mini profits row minima
Product A
+8
1
-10
Product B
-2
+6
+12
Product C
+16
0
-26
In above table
Ranking the MAXIMIN rule = BAC
a triangle with side lengths in the ratio 3:4:5 is inscribed in a circle
cos^2(A)x sin(A)
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