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Furthermore it can be seen that there are interesting relationships between the remaining variables. Firstly, at the 95% significance level it can be seen that interest rates Granger cause exchange rates. This complies with the relevant theory as if domestic interest rates rise there will be a subsequent increase demand for domestic currency. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is also shown in Table 4.3, with both variables Granger causing each other.
In summary, this section has found that oil prices Granger causethree key macroeconomic variables, interest rates, inflation and GDP, therefore we are able to deduce that any unit change in the price of Brent oil, will subsequently impact on these three macroeconomic variables.
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OPEC oil cartel becomes subject to this tension or conflict such that the cartel gives way to a more competitive oil market resulting in a dramatic decrease in the world oil price.
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