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Inflation
Inflation is a general increase in the price of goods and services. The inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 9.9% in 20x2-x3 and is expected to be 8% in 20x3-x4. This does not mean that prices will be lower in 1993-94. It merely means that the general increase in prices will be lower. An example will clarify the point.
The prices of certain items are included in calculating the CPI. If a given quantity of these items cost Rs.10,000 in the beginning of 20x2-x3, then at the end of 20x2-x3 they would cost Rs.10,990 which is 9.9% more. Further at the end of 20x3-x4 they will be expected to cost Rs.11,869 which is 8% more than the cost at the beginning of the year. Clearly the prices have not fallen, only the rate of increase has slowed down.
Figure 1: Inflation as Reflected by the Cost of Items Worth Rs.10,000 on 1st April 1992
1st April 20x2 1st April 20x3 1st April 20x4
regression line drawn as Y=C+1075x, when x was 2, and y was 239, given that y intercept was 11. calculate the residual
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