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Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with ƒÑƒn= .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Based on a visual inspection, which forecast is better
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Demand 7 9 5 9 13 8 12 13 9 11 7
a)Polt the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?
b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using 3 year moving average. plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.
c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with weights of.1,.3,and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.
d)As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to five the better results?
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NOTE: NOTE: below are the 2 textbooks used in the course and it is important to use quantitative analysis techniques covered in both texts. PMBA 6312 Quantitative Methods/Research
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