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Using historic time series data on monthly unemployment rates from January 2001 to April 2011, calculate the following:
a) Monthly adjusted seasonal indices using monthly moving average technique.
b) Estimate the unemployment trend equation by deseasonalizing the data. Interpret the statistical significance of your regression results at 5% level of significance.
c) Forecast the unemployment rates for the next three months of 2011 based on your trend and monthly seasonal indices.
d) Based on the data and the unemployment trend, what improvements will you incorporate in your forecasting techniques to make your predictions more accurate.
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