Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Charge for depreciation and amortization, Talbot Enterprises recently repor...

Talbot Enterprises recently reported an EBITDA of $8 million and net income of $2.4 million. It had $2.0 million of interest expense, and its corporate tax rate was 40%. What was i

Annual effective rate, You have recently won the UniSA "log tossing" compet...

You have recently won the UniSA "log tossing" competition. The prize of $200 is supposed to be used to buy a 50-year subscription to "Log News" This appears to represent a consid

Explain taxonomy of financial intermediaries, Taxonomy of financial interme...

Taxonomy of financial intermediaries We start by looking at the USA, the largest economy and financial system in the world. Subsequently we will turn to other countries. In the

Liquidity risk, An investor, who wants to sell a bond even before it ...

An investor, who wants to sell a bond even before it reaches its maturity date, would be concerned as to whether he will receive a price that is close to the true

Auto loan-backed securities (albs), The issuers of ALBS are the finan...

The issuers of ALBS are the financial subsidiaries of automobile manufacturers, commercial banks and other independent finance companies and small financial insti

Funds management, who are the participants in the hedge funds industries

who are the participants in the hedge funds industries

Bond, Bond - One type of long-term PROMISSORY NOTE, often issued to the pub...

Bond - One type of long-term PROMISSORY NOTE, often issued to the public as a SECURITY regulated under federal securities laws or state BLUE SKY LAWS. Bonds can eitherbe registered

Microsoft''s Partenership Strategies, I have a presentation to give on ''Ne...

I have a presentation to give on ''New ways'' Microsoft can improve its ''Partnership Strategies''. Can some one please give some good links or insights into the same.

Define conservative type of working capital financing plan, What is the mos...

What is the most conservative type of working capital financing plan a company could implement?  Explain. An all equity capital structure would be mainly conservative type of wor

Explain the flow of goods and paper work, Explain the flow of goods and pap...

Explain the flow of goods and paper work in Diagram on Page 74 Ed. 10 [P. 70  in Ed. 9] of your textbook.  Explain a.  how the transaction would work without a Letter of Credi

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd