Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Cash flow valuation technique, Cash Flow Valuation Technique The aim o...

Cash Flow Valuation Technique The aim of this research is to empirically enquire into how to value a company using discounted cash flow valuation technique within its real lif

What do you mean by wealth maximization, Q. What do you mean by Wealth Maxi...

Q. What do you mean by Wealth Maximization? This is also known as value maximization or net present worth maximization approach, it takes into consideration the time value of m

Find the impact of price and trading volume, Purpose of research: The a...

Purpose of research: The aims of this research are to examine the effectiveness of speculation on efficiency of Petrochemical sector in Saudi Arabia financial market"TADAWUL".

Opperating cyles, discuss the applicability of operating cycles of vegetabl...

discuss the applicability of operating cycles of vegetable growing

No title, discuss the steps in the controlling process

discuss the steps in the controlling process

Future value, (a).At the end of three years, how much is an initial deposit...

(a).At the end of three years, how much is an initial deposit of $100 worth, assuming a compound annual interest rate of (i) 100 percent? (ii) 10 percent? (iii) 0 percent? (b).b. A

Calculate total amount of dividends in arrears, QTL Tech has an issue of pr...

QTL Tech has an issue of preferred shares outstanding with a $50 stated value that pays a dividend of 7.5%. There are 325,000 shares outstanding. QTL has not paid preferred share d

Global bond sectors and instruments, Treasuries are the securities that the...

Treasuries are the securities that theUS government issues for the completion of government projects. They are of different types like, treasury bills, treasury bon

Display profit diagrams for long stock and for short stock, Question: (...

Question: (a) A stock currently sells for $80 and a put option with an exercise price of $80 currently sells for $2. Find the percentage gain to an investor in the common stock

Yield on treasury bills, Treasury Bills, popularly known as T-bills, ...

Treasury Bills, popularly known as T-bills, are issued in India by the RBI on behalf of the Government of India. T-bills are short-term securities with a maturity of 91

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd