Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Elements of financial statement, Adapted from: Henderson, S, Peirson, G & H...

Adapted from: Henderson, S, Peirson, G & Herbohn, K 2008, Issues in financial accounting, 13th edn, Pearson Education Australia, Frenchs Forest.For each of the following independen

Write down budget constraint - budget line, You have $20 to spend on high q...

You have $20 to spend on high quality pens and low quality pens. High quality pens cost $5 each and low quality pens cost $2 each.    (a) Suppose that you will spend your entire

Determine about the call and put option, Determine about the call and put o...

Determine about the call and put option A call/ put option provision allow both issuing company and investor to redeem the bonds at a specified amount before maturity date. Lon

Describes the concept of time value of money, Q. Describes the Concept of T...

Q. Describes the Concept of Time value of Money? 'Time value of money' signifies that the value of a unit of money is different in different time periods. The worth of a sum of

What number of seats generates that maximum revenue, Q. In planning a resta...

Q. In planning a restaurant, it is estimated that a revenue of $6 per seat will be realized if the number of seats is at most 50. On the other hand, the revenue on each seat will d

Calculate, #questiBabar Corporation''s present capital structure, which is ...

#questiBabar Corporation''s present capital structure, which is also its target capital structure I, is 40% debt and 60% common equity. Next year''s net income is projected to be R

Concepts of cost of capital, Concepts of Cost of Capital 1. Explicit ...

Concepts of Cost of Capital 1. Explicit Cost And Implicit Cost The explicit cost of any source of finance may be described as the discount rate that equates the current v

Financial asseta and time value of money, assume that risk free rate is 8% ...

assume that risk free rate is 8% and expected rate of return in market is 12%. what is the required rate of return on stock with a beta of 0.8%

Features of government securities, Features of government securities: ...

Features of government securities: Issuers The government securities are issued by the central government, state governments, and semi-government authorities like municipa

Calculate the total present value of the tax shield, Nortel is considering ...

Nortel is considering the purchase of a new  call routing system.  The system will cost $50M to purchase, an additional $7M to install, and will last for 30 years.  The CCA rate as

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd