Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Determine the wealth maximisation decision criterion, Wealth Maximisation D...

Wealth Maximisation Decision Criterion This is also called as value maximisation or net present worth maximisation. Presently academic literature value maximisation is almost u

financial crisis, Hedge funds are short two types of funding options. Desc...

Hedge funds are short two types of funding options. Describe in detail what these options are.   Describe why these options become more valuable during a financial crisis.   During

Write a market outlook for bond markets, The requirement of this assignment...

The requirement of this assignment that you write a Market Outlook for Bond Markets in a report form, in which you present your assessment of  the investment potential of global so

Passive management, In the efficient markets, whether it is sec...

In the efficient markets, whether it is security, equity or fixed-income markets it is believed that the investors use some type of passive strategy in

Buy and hold - passive strategy, A simple passive strategy involves b...

A simple passive strategy involves building a portfolio and holding it through time. The coupons as well as the proceeds of matured bonds are just reinvested in new iss

Planning and controlling the various business activities , Explain and crit...

Explain and critically evaluate : a)  The relevance of committed fixed costs in deciding the optimal mix of products to maximum a company's profit and the importance of relevant

Non-agency mortgage backed securities, The mortgage-backed securiti...

The mortgage-backed securities dealt with till now are agency mortgage backed securities. There are other MBS which can be for any kind of real estate property.

Return payment method, when asked to calculate return method given cash flo...

when asked to calculate return method given cash flow before depreciation how do you do it

What is benchmarking, What is Benchmarking "A continuous, systematic pr...

What is Benchmarking "A continuous, systematic process for evaluating the products, services and work processes of an organisation that are recognised as representing best prac

Calculate the minimum price sell for in a rational market, Suppose spot Swi...

Suppose spot Swiss franc is $0.7000 and the six-month forward rate is $0.6950.  What is the minimum price which a six-month American call option along with a striking price of $0.6

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd