Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Case let, This case has been framed in order to test the skills in evaluati...

This case has been framed in order to test the skills in evaluating a credit request and reaching a correct decision. Perluence International is large manufacturer of petroleum and

Compute the market price of walters model, The earnings per share of a comp...

The earnings per share of a company is Rs 8 and the rate of capitalization applicable is 10%. The company has before it, an option of adopting i) 50,ii) 75 iii) 100 per cent div

Chi square test as a test of independence, Chi Square Test as a Test of Ind...

Chi Square Test as a Test of Independence In real life decision making, managers often have to know whether the differences between the proportions observed from a number of sa

What is the ratio uses, What is the Ratio uses To compare results over ...

What is the Ratio uses To compare results over a period of time To measure performance against other organisations To compare results with a target To compare against

Social assistance program for the elderly, Social Assistance Program for th...

Social Assistance Program for the Elderly For the elderly destitutes, the Central and many State Governments have designed several social assistance programs. Under the nationa

Financial Analysis of Carrefour & Tesco Supermarkets, comparative analysis ...

comparative analysis on these two food retailing giants

What is the deferred tax asset or liability at the end yr, AB Corp expensed...

AB Corp expensed on the financial stmt $2,000,000 for depreciation expense during the year using straight line depreciation and deducted $3,000,000 of depreciation on the tax retur

Determine the objectives of profit maximisation, Determine the objectives o...

Determine the objectives of Profit maximisation Profit maximisation remains one of the key objectives for the managers of the companysince many managers' compensations are lin

Define in market mergers, What are "in-market" mergers? A: An in-market m...

What are "in-market" mergers? A: An in-market merger is one that occurs between two banks operating in similar geographic area, usually a city or metropolitan area. The merged in

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd