Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Explain implications of purchasing power parity, Explain the implications o...

Explain the implications of purchasing power parity for operating exposure. Answer: Determine if the exchange rate changes are matched by the inflation rate differential among

Employee benefit plan, Employee Benefit Plan - Compensation arrangement, u...

Employee Benefit Plan - Compensation arrangement, usually in writing, used by employers in addition to wages or salary. Some plans like group term life insurance, medical insuranc

Explain the procedure for cost benefit analysis, Question 1: i) Pe...

Question 1: i) Performance budgeting is the best budgeting system. Discuss. ii) Why there is a need for implementing MTEF in the Mauritian Public Sector? Questi

Fiancial management, Ashok is to receive an amount of Rs. 15,00,000 from hi...

Ashok is to receive an amount of Rs. 15,00,000 from his relative after 3 years. He wants to buy a house for which he wants the money to be paid now. His relative had al

Calculate the price of winnebago stock , Calculate the price of Winnebago s...

Calculate the price of Winnebago stock (Winnebago has no debt so this is the market value of the firm seperated by the number of common shares outstanding.) from the cashflows you

Payback period, Payback Period It is an amount of time, mainly measured...

Payback Period It is an amount of time, mainly measured in years; it takes previously the undiscounted cash inflows from a project equal the cash outflow. It indicates the leng

How can we estimate that firm is going to benefit, Ho can we estimate that ...

Ho can we estimate that firm is going to benefit from projec To calculate how firm is going to benefit from project we need to calculate whether firm is earning the required ra

Definition of financial leverage, Q. Definition of financial leverage? ...

Q. Definition of financial leverage? One of the goals of planning an appropriate capital structure is to maximize the return on equity shareholders fund or else maximize the ea

Micro/Macro Question, You have been hired as an economic advisor to the Sou...

You have been hired as an economic advisor to the Southeastern Conference. As your first assignment they have asked you to identify three microeconomic and three macroeconomic issu

What are the failure of mergers and takeovers, Failure of mergers and tak...

Failure of mergers and takeovers Failure of mergers and takeovers Poor strategic plan will result in slow or failed integration. Integra

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd