Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Condition market to book value ratios be misleading, Under what circumstanc...

Under what circumstances would market to book value ratios be misleading?  Explain. The Market to Book ratio is helpful, but it is just only a rough approximation of how liquid

Define the pros and cons of commercial paper, What are the pros and cons of...

What are the pros and cons of commercial paper relative to bank loans for a company seeking short-term financing? Commercial paper is generally a cheaper source of short-term fin

Illustrate the nature of financial management, Q. Illustrate the Nature of ...

Q. Illustrate the Nature of Financial Management? Less Descriptive as well as More Analytical: - Financial management is less descriptive and more analytical. Because of the

Explain the sovereign risk, Explain the Sovereign Risk Sovereign risk d...

Explain the Sovereign Risk Sovereign risk denotes a country imposing exchange restrictions on a currency included in a swap making it expensive, or not possible, for a counterp

Government securities , The RBI, on behalf of the government, issues ...

The RBI, on behalf of the government, issues all T-Bills and Government dated securities. Being risk-free securities, they set the benchmark for the interest rate

Corporation, Corporation - Form of doing business pursuant to a charter gra...

Corporation - Form of doing business pursuant to a charter granted by a state or federal government. Corporations mainly are characterized by the issuance of freely transferable CA

Prepare a monthly cash budget, Citilink will start a new business line on 1...

Citilink will start a new business line on 1st July, 2011 to make and sell bus souvenirs. The target sales and production volume are 525,000 in next year. The following projected

Determine the present value of store, Assume that ABC is considering openin...

Assume that ABC is considering opening an ice cream shop in Amsterdam. The shop will cost 1.8 million Euros, and the present value of the expected cash flows from the store is 1.4

Financial Planning, report on Financial Planning and Forecasting

report on Financial Planning and Forecasting

State the significance of the cost of capital, State the Significance of th...

State the Significance of the Cost of Capital It must be recognized at the outset that cost of capital is one of the most difficult and disputed topics in the finance theory.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd