Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

What is usual approach of capital structure, Q. What is usual Approach of c...

Q. What is usual Approach of capital Structure? Ans. Traditional Approach: - The traditional approach establishes middle among the Net Income approach and the Net Operating Inc

Skills, what are some of the skills in asmall scale business

what are some of the skills in asmall scale business

Calculate the ex-right stock price, DIY Inc. plans to raise $200,000 with a...

DIY Inc. plans to raise $200,000 with a right offering. The current stock price is $100 and there are 80,000 shares outstanding. a. If DIY sets the subscription price to be $80

Find the minimum earnings, Milan Corporation is interested in buying a mach...

Milan Corporation is interested in buying a machine that will cost $50,000, and it will depreciate it on straight-line basis over a 5-year period. The machine is expected to last f

BCF103 - Fundamentals of Business Financial Management, The TERRIER program...

The TERRIER program cost estimate is in constant FY 2011 dollars, while the SPANIEL program cost estimate is in constant FY 2014 dollars. what is the most valid way of comparing th

Yield to worst, Now we can calculate the yield for each possible call...

Now we can calculate the yield for each possible call or put date. In addition, we can also calculate the yield to maturity. The lowest yield of all these possibl

Explain about pay back method, Q. Explain about Pay Back Method? Pay Ba...

Q. Explain about Pay Back Method? Pay Back Method (PB) :- The payback process is the simplest method. This method computed the number of years required to pay back the original

How to measure the firm risk of a capital budgeting project, Explain how to...

Explain how to measure the firm risk of a capital budgeting project. The firm risk of a capital budgeting project measures the force of adding a new project to the existing pro

Types of companies likely to have high operating leverage, Give two example...

Give two examples of types of companies likely to have high operating leverage.Find examples other than those cited in the chapter. Long distance electricity generating compani

Define working capital, Q. Define Working Capital. Ans. Introduction: - ...

Q. Define Working Capital. Ans. Introduction: - Working capital plays the similar role in the business as the role of heart in the human body. Just like heart gets blood as well

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd