Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Financial equivalent of the balance, The Federal Minister for the Environme...

The Federal Minister for the Environment is worried about the Greenhouse Effect, one outcome of which would be that Adelaide would have a subtropical climate by the year 2015. This

PV Annuity , What is the present value of an annuity that makes a quarterly...

What is the present value of an annuity that makes a quarterly payment of $37,110 for 11 years, assuming an annual yield to maturity of 5%?

Calculate the forward exchange rate, (a) A debt of $3600 with interest at 6...

(a) A debt of $3600 with interest at 6% compounded semiannually is to be amortized by semiannual payments of $900 each, the rst due in 6 months, together with a nal partial payme

Start-up financing, Start-Up Financing Capital provided to companies wh...

Start-Up Financing Capital provided to companies which have been in operation for less than one year to facilitate all phases of bringing their product to market.

Empirical measurement of liquidity, Empirical Measurement of Liquidity: Th...

Empirical Measurement of Liquidity: The number of days a particular share is being traded reflects the liquidity of the market. If it is traded actively on 50% of the days when th

Sustainable growth rate, You are given the following information for Clapto...

You are given the following information for Clapton Guitars, Inc. Profit margin 6.3% Total Asset turnover 1.6 Total debt ratio 0.44 Payout ratio 35% Calculat

What are the factors to consider in a takeover and merger, Factors to cons...

Factors to consider in a takeover/ merger Before a company decides to merge or acquire the following considerations should be taken: Rejection of bid by ta

When they analyze pro forma financial statements, What do financial manager...

What do financial managers look for when they analyze pro forma financial statements? After the pro forma financial statements are finished, financial managers examine the

Show the working capital in a business, Q. Show the Working capital in a bu...

Q. Show the Working capital in a business? Working capital in a business is essential since of operating cycle. However the need for working capital doesn't come to an end afte

Problems in assigning weights, Q. Problems in assigning weights? Proble...

Q. Problems in assigning weights? Problems in assigning weights: for determining the weighted average costs of capital, weight has to assign to the specific cost of the individ

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd