Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

In how many area ratios are grouped, In how many area ratios are grouped ...

In how many area ratios are grouped Ratios can be grouped into 3 main areas: 1 Performance - how well business has done (profitability) 2 Position - short term standing

Bond indexation, Bond indexation serves the purpose of replicating th...

Bond indexation serves the purpose of replicating the performance of a predetermined benchmark as closely as possible. These benchmarks are generally very broader

Financial maket, knowledge of financial market is power discuss

knowledge of financial market is power discuss

Income statement & balance sheet, in 2002, jackson incorporated had gross s...

in 2002, jackson incorporated had gross sales of $4269200. for 2002, management estimated that returns and allowances would be 5 percent of gross sales. what did jackson report as

Calculate the ex-right stock price, DIY Inc. plans to raise $200,000 with a...

DIY Inc. plans to raise $200,000 with a right offering. The current stock price is $100 and there are 80,000 shares outstanding. a. If DIY sets the subscription price to be $80

Rand corporation, what is the rand corporation five project rank

what is the rand corporation five project rank

Performance budget, Performance budget: it involves evaluation of the perf...

Performance budget: it involves evaluation of the performance of the organization in the context of both overall and specific objectives of the organization. As per the National I

Explain hard capital rationing and soft capital rationing, Explain Hard cap...

Explain Hard capital rationing and Soft capital rationing The NPV decision rule to admit all projects with a positive net present value requires the existence of a perfect cap

Fixed rate versus floating rate asset backed securities, There are fi...

There are fixed as well as floating rate asset-backed securities. A floating rate asset-backed security is one whose underlying pool consists of loans or receivab

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd