Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Margin and marking to market, The collaterals used in the repo market...

The collaterals used in the repo market are high quality securities; but they are also not free from credit risk. In our earlier example, we see the dealer borrow

How to select the source of the finance, Selecting the source of the financ...

Selecting the source of the finance: after prepare of the capital structure an appropriate source of the funds. Various sources of the finance may be raised include share capital

Commercial paper, Commercial Paper (CP) is a short-term unsecured pro...

Commercial Paper (CP) is a short-term unsecured promissory note issued in the open market. It also represents the obligation of the issuer. Normally, it is issued

Operating cycle, make an cash conversion cycle of cabbages

make an cash conversion cycle of cabbages

Federal agency securities, Federal Agency Securities are those securi...

Federal Agency Securities are those securities issued by federally related institutions and those issued by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSE). Securities iss

Determine the earnings per share, Goodshape Company has currently, an ordin...

Goodshape Company has currently, an ordinary share capital of Rs. 2.5 million, consisting of 25,000 shares of Rs. 100 each. The management is planning to raise another Rs. 2 milli

Assuptions, what are the basic assumptions of financial management?

what are the basic assumptions of financial management?

Determining optimum liquid balance, Q. Determining Optimum Liquid Balance? ...

Q. Determining Optimum Liquid Balance? Liquid balance (balance of cash and marketable securities) must be maintained at the optimum level. It is the level which gives the minim

Long-term debt finance, The approaches that Blin could accept regarding the...

The approaches that Blin could accept regarding the relative proportions of long- and short-term finance to meet its working capital needs have been described as moderate, conserva

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd