Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Asymmetric cash matching, When a set of predetermined liabilities are given...

When a set of predetermined liabilities are given, the investor must construct a non-callable bond portfolio of homogeneous ratings by considering certain characteris

Short-term finnce, briefly discuss the three approaches to the short-term f...

briefly discuss the three approaches to the short-term financing problems and examples of each

Total cost of operating the business, Joe's ice cream stroe has to decide w...

Joe's ice cream stroe has to decide whether to shut down this winter or stay open. His projected revenue is $1,200 per week. He has fixed costs (Mortgage, taxes, insurance, etc.) t

Financial reform, The recent financial reform in the Public Sector that had...

The recent financial reform in the Public Sector that had been implemented in Fiji is essential. Critically evaluate this statement.

Book value and liquidation value per share for common stock, Compare and co...

Compare and contrast the book value and liquidation value per share for common stock. Is one method more reliable? Explain. The Book Value of a firm's common stock is institute

Cost of capital , ABC Ltd. Produces electronic components with a selling pr...

ABC Ltd. Produces electronic components with a selling price per of Rs.100. Fixed cost amount to Rs.2,00,000/- 5000 units are produced and sold each year. Annua

Does high operating leverage always mean high business risk, Does high oper...

Does high operating leverage always mean high business risk?  Explain. High operating leverage doesn't always mean high business risk.  If the company's sales are quite steady

Forward rates, Now that we have seen how default-free theoretical rat...

Now that we have seen how default-free theoretical rate can be extrapolated from the treasury yield curve, let us see how some other additional information, like forwar

Accounts, XYZ Ltd is a group of doctors, dentists, professional sports play...

XYZ Ltd is a group of doctors, dentists, professional sports players and celebrities with excess funds who wish to find small companies with great innovative ideas and invest in th

Determine about the sales agents, Determine about the Sales agents Norm...

Determine about the Sales agents Normally used for more effective sales and marketing activities for a product for example AVON (cosmetics) door to door agents in the UK. -

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd