Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

What is bid, Bid The price buyers provide to acquire securities or pri...

Bid The price buyers provide to acquire securities or privacy from sellers.

What is inherent risk, What is Inherent risk Susceptibility  of  an  ac...

What is Inherent risk Susceptibility  of  an  account  balance  or  class  of  transactions  to  material  misstatement either  individually  or  when  aggregated  with misstat

Define production limits used in practice to raise prices, How are producti...

How are production limits used in practice to raise the prices of the following goods or services: (a) taxi rides, (b) drinks in a restaurant or bar, (c) wheat or

Balance sheet, Balance Sheet: The balance sheet measures the financial ...

Balance Sheet: The balance sheet measures the financial position of the business at a particular point in time.  It is also called Statement of Financial Position. The balan

Objective of having frequent brainstorming sessions, Case Study: Silico...

Case Study: Silicon Cliffs is a big private company that undertakes consultancy activities and services in the field of building construction. Silicon Cliffs has gained peoples

Expected monthly return, In this exercise you will construct efficient port...

In this exercise you will construct efficient portfolios with 5 risky assets using Excel's non-linear optimization routing "Solver". The questions are designed to be sequential and

Traditional mortgages, In US, savings and loan associations con...

In US, savings and loan associations constitute the major originating group of the traditional loans. What types of properties can be mortgaged?

Evaluate return on capital employed, a) Gross profit = $500,000 and Expense...

a) Gross profit = $500,000 and Expenses = $100,000 for Year 2. b) Year 2 GPM = $500k / $1,000k = 50.0% Year 1 GPM = $400k / $850k = 47.05% Year 2 NPM = $400k / $1,000k =

Define the explicit cost of capital, Define the Explicit cost of capital ...

Define the Explicit cost of capital Explicit cost of retained earnings that involve no future flows to or from firm is minus 100 per cent. This must not tempt one to infer that

Protected put, Protected Put A protected put would involve a long put a...

Protected Put A protected put would involve a long put and a long stock. For example - ONGC. Underlying stock = Rs. 809 Buy Mar Rs. 900 Put @ Rs.68.8   Total cos

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd