Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Compute full cost-financially-based rationale , Bill Nicholson wants you to...

Bill Nicholson wants you to help him prepare the financial case for moving the manufacturing operation to Andover.   He has specifically expressed interest in getting answers to th

Value of conversion benefits, Value of Conversion Benefits: Having seen...

Value of Conversion Benefits: Having seen the measure used to analyze the convertible bonds, let us now examine the merits and demerits of convertible bonds and why or why not

Sources of funds, What are sources of funds for an assignment?

What are sources of funds for an assignment?

Problems in assigning weights, Q. Problems in assigning weights? Proble...

Q. Problems in assigning weights? Problems in assigning weights: for determining the weighted average costs of capital, weight has to assign to the specific cost of the individ

What is marginal cost of capital, What is Marginal cost of capital Marg...

What is Marginal cost of capital Marginal cost of capital, by contrast refers to incrementalcost associated with new funds raised by firm. Marginal cost is the specific conc

State the importance of gearing in accounting, state the importance of gear...

state the importance of gearing in accounting Gearing is one of the most extensively used terms in accounting. Gearing is the relationship between debt and equitywhich means th

What are the motives of holding cash, Q. What are the Motives of Holding Ca...

Q. What are the Motives of Holding Cash? Motives of Holding Cash: - In every business assets are kept for the reason that they generate profit. But cash is an asset which doesn

What is current asset, Q. What is Current Asset? Current Asset - ASSET ...

Q. What is Current Asset? Current Asset - ASSET which one can reasonably expect to convert into cash, sell or consume in operations within a single operating cycle or within a

Parity conditions, Parity Conditions A parity condition defines the rel...

Parity Conditions A parity condition defines the relative value of one country's currency to the other country's currency. The condition states how, for the example, difference

Capital structure decisions: the basics, i want some presentation slides of...

i want some presentation slides of this chapter from page 570 to 580

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd