Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Inflated budgeted expense account, Write down what processes and data you w...

Write down what processes and data you would analyse when looking at the following scenarios and write down any improvements you could include to ensure that the problem would be l

Non-callable versus non-refundable bonds, A bond is said to be curr...

A bond is said to be currently callable if the issue is not protected against early call provision. But most new bond issues, even if currently callable, us

What are the functions of financial management, Functions of Financial Mana...

Functions of Financial Management Traditional function of financial management has been limiting the role of finance toraising and administrating of funds required by the compa

Discount rate, #quA stock has a current dividend of $0.32 with a growth rat...

#quA stock has a current dividend of $0.32 with a growth rate of 8% annually. Assuming a 10% annual discount rate, what should the price of the stock be one year from today? Answer

Explain capital investment project appraisal, Question: (a) The future ...

Question: (a) The future value (F) of a sum invested now can be calculated using the formula: F = P(1 + r) n Required: (i) Describe each of the other constituents in the

Evaluate the strength of the human development, In 2005, Mr. Gordon Brown's...

In 2005, Mr. Gordon Brown's brought up a plan of action to help reduce poverty and boost economic development in Africa. The three essential elements of the 2005 development plan

Cash books, Cash Books (Cash Payments and Receipts Journals) Cash books...

Cash Books (Cash Payments and Receipts Journals) Cash books are the names given to the Cash Receipts Journal and the Cash Payments Journal. They are used to record the flow of

Dividends, Company X is expected to maintain a constant 7% growth rate in t...

Company X is expected to maintain a constant 7% growth rate in their dividends, indefinitely. If company X has a dividend yield of 4%, what is the required return on their shares?

Calculate the price of commonwealth bonds, Calculate the Price of Commonwea...

Calculate the Price of Commonwealth bonds Commonwealth Company has a 10% coupon bond with a par value of $1000, The current yield to maturity on new bonds is 8%. If interest is

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd