Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Classification of the cost, 1) Future cost and historical cost: financial ...

1) Future cost and historical cost: financial decision is based on the future cost and not on the historical cost. The decision related to the future and hence the cost are likely

Define the explicit cost of capital, Define the Explicit cost of capital ...

Define the Explicit cost of capital Explicit cost of retained earnings that involve no future flows to or from firm is minus 100 per cent. This must not tempt one to infer that

Ratchet bonds, The coupon rate of these types of bonds is adjusted pe...

The coupon rate of these types of bonds is adjusted periodically at a fixed margin over a reference rate. It can be adjusted southward only and once it is adjuste

Illustration of valuation using multiple discount rates, Illustration  ...

Illustration  Let us assume that Vishal Mehta & Co., (from Illustration 1) is using the following discounting rates in place of one rate:

Determine the fields of finance, Determine the Fields of Finance Academ...

Determine the Fields of Finance Academic discipline of financial management may be viewed as made up of five specialized fields. In every field, financial manager is dealing wi

find the weighted average cost of capital, Given the following information...

Given the following information, find the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC).  Assume the corporate tax rate is 35%, and give an answer based on market values of debt and equi

What do you mean by account, Q. What do you mean by Account? Account - ...

Q. What do you mean by Account? Account - Formal record which represents, in words, money or other unit of measurement, certainresources, transactions, claims to such resources

Measure of central tendency, One of the most important objectiv...

One of the most important objectives of statistical analysis is to get one single value that describes the characteristic of the entire mass of unwieldy

Process of bringing a new international bond issue to market, Discuss the p...

Discuss the process of bringing a new international bond issue to market. Answer:  A borrower desiring to increase funds by issuing Eurobonds to the investing public will conta

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd