Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

How can we estimate that firm is going to benefit, Ho can we estimate that ...

Ho can we estimate that firm is going to benefit from projec To calculate how firm is going to benefit from project we need to calculate whether firm is earning the required ra

Explain the importance of supplier appraisal, QUESTION (a) List the fiv...

QUESTION (a) List the five elements of the purchasing mix. (b) Describe briefly the four essential elements of a legally binding contract. (c) Distinguish between perform

What was the value of each person investment, Joe and Sam each invested $20...

Joe and Sam each invested $20,000 in the stock market. Joe's investment increased in value by 5% per year for 10 years. Sam's investment decreased in value by 5% for 5 years and th

What are the ifrs 8 operating segments, What are the IFRS 8 operating segme...

What are the IFRS 8 operating segments IASB issued IFRS 8 operating segments in November 2006 (which replaced IAS 14). This continues IASB's work in its joint short-term conver

Calculate roe when roe may be calculated more simply, Why would an analyst ...

Why would an analyst use the Modified Du Pont system to calculate ROE when ROE may be calculated more simply? Explain. In fact, an analyst wouldn't use the Modified Du Pont eq

Define ‘trust''. explain in detail the various types of trust, Question 1 ...

Question 1 Define 'Trust'. Explain in detail the various types of Trust Question 2 Discuss the concept of Tax Planning. Identify difference between Tax Planning and Tax Ev

Calculate expected gain or loss from the forward hedging, 1. A company sold...

1. A company sold a super computer to an Institute in Germany on credit and invoiced DM 10 million payable in six months. Presently, the six-month forward exchange rate is $1.50/DM

Major advantages of preparing a statement of cash flow, QUESTION 1 ...

QUESTION 1 Part A i) Define the terms finance lease and operating lease and explain how you would distinguish between the two leases ii) When accounting for fina

Determine the cost, a) Social marketing is the use of normal marketing meth...

a) Social marketing is the use of normal marketing methods to achieve the benefits of social change, such as informing the public about the harm of under-age drinking, rather than

Factors affecting choice of a minimum cash balance amount, Explain the fact...

Explain the factors affecting the choice of a minimum cash balance amount. The smallest cash balance amount is determined by how easy it is to raise funds when needed, how expe

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd