Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

What is inventory turnover, What is Inventory turnover The shortcoming ...

What is Inventory turnover The shortcoming of this ratio is that average calculation based on beginning and year-end inventory may not represent actual average in year. Other l

Find out the price of equity shares., Following details are related to thre...

Following details are related to three companies which are identical except in terms of ''r''. Company ABC Ltd. MNC Ltd. XYZ Ltd. Cost of capital 10% 10% 10% Earn per

How to calculate the future value of an annuity, Calculate the Future Value...

Calculate the Future Value of an Annuity: Annuity is stated as periodic payment every period for a number of periods. This periodic payment is the same each year only then it c

Between entries for routine business transactions, Ivan is making several e...

Ivan is making several entries into the general journal at the restaurant where he serves as an accountant. The main difference between entries for routine business transactions an

Evaluate the use of market multiples, The annual report and accounts for As...

The annual report and accounts for Astra Zeneca plc and Epistem Holdings plc and other relevant financial information are available in the ‘TMA 02 Resources folder' in the Assessme

Show financial management process, Q. Show Financial Management Process? ...

Q. Show Financial Management Process? The financial management process begins with the financial planning and decisions. While implementing these decisions, the firm has to acq

What are the factors to consider in a takeover and merger, Factors to cons...

Factors to consider in a takeover/ merger Before a company decides to merge or acquire the following considerations should be taken: Rejection of bid by ta

Issuing procedure of treasury bills, Issuing Procedure of treasury bills ...

Issuing Procedure of treasury bills As discussed above, the RBI on behalf of central government, announces the auctioning of T-bills by tender notification through the press. T

Define trustworthy collateral from the lenders perspective, What is trustwo...

What is trustworthy collateral from the lenders' perspective?  Explain whether accounts receivable and inventory are trustworthy collateral. Assets which are readily marketable

Laspeyres method, Laspeyres Method Laspeyres method uses the quantities...

Laspeyres Method Laspeyres method uses the quantities consumed during the base period in computing the index number. This method is also the most commonly used method which inc

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd