Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Financial statement, Telephone service costs the Eggleston Motor Hotel $250...

Telephone service costs the Eggleston Motor Hotel $250 per week. The business pays its phone service bill on the fifteenth day of each month, but it prepares its financial statemen

Financial ratio analysis, 1. Calculate the compound average annual growth r...

1. Calculate the compound average annual growth rate in sales and profit after tax

Compute the economic order quantity, Q. Compute the economic order quantity...

Q. Compute the economic order quantity? TNG has a current order size of 50000 units Average number of orders per year = demand/order size = 255380/50000 = 5·11 orders Ann

Regional banks, Regional Banks Large banks like First Norwest, Chicago,...

Regional Banks Large banks like First Norwest, Chicago, Mellon and Crocker function regionally at the national level in a fashion same to money center banks. Regional banks ser

Define some instances of restrictive covenants, What are some instances of ...

What are some instances of restrictive covenants that might be fixed in a bond's indenture? An indenture might involve limitations on future borrowings, restrictions on dividen

Characteristics of hedge funds, Characteristics of Hedge Funds Hedge Fu...

Characteristics of Hedge Funds Hedge Funds are commonly referred to as "absolute return strategies", which means that many are designed to seek positive returns in most market

Explain about cash forecasting method, Q. Explain about Cash Forecasting Me...

Q. Explain about Cash Forecasting Method ? Under this method an approximate is made of cash receipts and payments for the next period. Estimated cash receipts are added to the

Cash flow, how do you find total cash outflow through maturity

how do you find total cash outflow through maturity

Explain the various source of finance, Explain in detail various sources of...

Explain in detail various sources of finance. Which is the most appropriate one?

MM., What are the assumptions of MM(Modigliani Miller) approach?

What are the assumptions of MM(Modigliani Miller) approach?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd