Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

What are the rationales of interest swaps, Question: i) What are the ...

Question: i) What are the rationales of interest swaps? ii) You are the corporate treasurer of LSE International Inc. Your firm, rated as AAA, is able to raise capital in

Discuss the techniques to manage risks, Q. Discuss the techniques to manage...

Q. Discuss the techniques to manage risks? Once risks have been identified and assessed, all techniques to manage the risk fall into one or more of the four major categories li

Food and beverage industry averages, #What are the food and beverages indus...

#What are the food and beverages industry financial ratios for 2011,2010,2009? 1. Liquidity(current/quick), Asset Management(Inventory Turnover, total assets turnover),Debt Menagem

Remaining differences with us gaap, Remaining differences with US GAAP ...

Remaining differences with US GAAP IFRS 8 comprise intangible assets as part of the non-current assets. SFAS 131 only refers to tangible assets. IFRS 8 requires method

Total revenue change, Write an essay explaining that the quantities of good...

Write an essay explaining that the quantities of goods and services that we can produce are limited by both our available resources and by technology. Assume we want to increase

Define interbank currency trading worldwide use us dollar, Why does most in...

Why does most interbank currency trading worldwide involve the U.S. dollar? Answer:  Trading in currencies worldwide is in opposition to a common currency which has international

Define the pros and cons of commercial paper, What are the pros and cons of...

What are the pros and cons of commercial paper relative to bank loans for a company seeking short-term financing? Commercial paper is generally a cheaper source of short-term fin

Analysing performance through ratios, Analysing performance through ratios ...

Analysing performance through ratios Ratios are an effective way of analysing financial statements. A ratio is 2 figures compared to each other and can either be in absolute te

Explain the divestment of company re-organisations, Divestment of company r...

Divestment of company re-organisations Adisinvestment or divestment is selling part of the business or subsidiary to another third party. Reasons and features for divestme

Define primary advantage to a corporation of investing, What is the primary...

What is the primary advantage to a corporation of investing some of its funds in working capital? By investing in working capital a firm acquires the liquidity it requirements he

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd