Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Operating cycle, Discuss the applicability of the operating cycle to poultr...

Discuss the applicability of the operating cycle to poultry business in Uganda(consider broilers)

Explain the features of new public management, Question 1: "The governa...

Question 1: "The governance of modern states demands that a relentless struggle be waged against the scourge of corruption." Discuss. Question 2: Explain clearly how th

Define condition for fixed-for-floating interest rate swap, What is the ess...

What is the essential condition for a fixed-for-floating interest rate swap to be possible? For a fixed-for-floating interest rate swap to be feasible it is essential for a quali

Case let 1, which type of approaching to each firm

which type of approaching to each firm

Secondary market - t-bills, Secondary Market The major participants in ...

Secondary Market The major participants in secondary market are banks, brokerage firms and bond houses. They buy and sell T-bills on behalf of customers and themselves. The cus

Monetary approach to the Exchange Rate, a The Monetary Approach to the ER. ...

a The Monetary Approach to the ER. All else equal, an increase in the interest rate in Canada is associated, in the long run, with higher prices in Canada and an appreciated exchan

Define the advantages of collecting early, What are the advantages of “coll...

What are the advantages of “collecting early” and how do companies attempt to do this? Money has time value.  The sooner cash is collected, the better.  Companies employ regional

Determine the weighted average cost of capital, To evaluate a company using...

To evaluate a company using enterprise discounted cash flow (DCF), we discount free cash flow by the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The weighted average cost of capital r

Stakeholders, identify five stakeholder groups and breifly explain their fi...

identify five stakeholder groups and breifly explain their financil and other objectives

Pay back method, Ask I have included a simple capital investment problem wh...

Ask I have included a simple capital investment problem which is in Course Documents. We are going to use the same numbers for several classes and look at some of the ways that cap

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd