Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Statement of total comprehensive income for the year, At 31 July 2010 this ...

At 31 July 2010 this instrument meets the definition of a derivative: Small or no initial investment. Its value is dependent on an underlying economic item; exchange ra

Explain the competitive benchmarking, Explain the Competitive Benchmarking ...

Explain the Competitive Benchmarking Healthcare services or Hospital are compared to rival 'competition 'in the same industry for instance methods of patient care and levels o

Final Project AFM, Ask questiona) Maju Construction (MCo) Sdn. Bhd. is bidd...

Ask questiona) Maju Construction (MCo) Sdn. Bhd. is bidding on a contract to build four tiny camping house (TCH) a year for the next three years for Sintokian campsite. Each TCH wi

Issuing procedure of treasury bills, Issuing Procedure of treasury bills ...

Issuing Procedure of treasury bills As discussed above, the RBI on behalf of central government, announces the auctioning of T-bills by tender notification through the press. T

Advantage of weighted average cost of capital, Advantage of Weighted Averag...

Advantage of Weighted Average Cost of capital 1) Straight Forward and logical: Weighted Average ost of Capital defines the oveall cost of capital as the sum of the cost of t

Financial evaluation and decision making, Financial Evaluation and Decision...

Financial Evaluation and Decision Making: The final major element of financial management is the evaluation of the information provided through the accounting and budget proces

Dow jones global index (djgi), Dow Jones Global Index (DJGI) The DJGI a...

Dow Jones Global Index (DJGI) The DJGI aims to cover 95% of market capitalisation at country level. As with FTSE and MSCI, there are the same 23 developed markets, but with gre

What do you mean by average cost and marginal cost, Q. What do you mean by ...

Q. What do you mean by Average Cost and Marginal cost? Average Cost and Marginal cost: the average cost is the combined cost as explain above, but for the difference in the for

What are the objectives of financial management, What are the Objectives of...

What are the Objectives of Financial Management To make wise decisions a clear understanding of the objectives that are sought to be achieved in compulsory. Objectives provide

Takeover risk, If the issuer company is taken over, then the bondhold...

If the issuer company is taken over, then the bondholders are likely to suffer. It is due to lowering of the stock prices in the market as a post takeover effect.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd