Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

What is the annual tax shield, what is the annual tax shield to a firm that...

what is the annual tax shield to a firm that has total assets of $80 million and a net worth of $55 million,if the average interest rate on debt is 8.5% and the marginal tax rate i

Differences in working capital for different industries, Differences in wor...

Differences in working capital for different industries   Manufacturing Retail Service Inventories H

Beta value, Beta Value Risk is an important consideration while investi...

Beta Value Risk is an important consideration while investing in any security. It is the possibility that realised returns will be less than the returns expected. The degree, t

Current assets management, how is operating cycle applicable to poultrybusi...

how is operating cycle applicable to poultrybusiness in Uganda (broilers)

Find the nominal rate of interest, (a) Find the nominal rate of interest j ...

(a) Find the nominal rate of interest j compounded quarterly which is equivalent to a 5% e ective rate of interest. (b) Which one will deliver a higher future value on a deposit

currency options, Do you guys provide Currency Options assignment help? I ...

Do you guys provide Currency Options assignment help? I need writing a report on Currency Options and it is about 2000 words. Let me know. I need to buy your solution.

Global equity indexes, Global Equity Indexes: As described earlier in t...

Global Equity Indexes: As described earlier in this chapter, there are several stock market indexes available which depict the performance of particular sectors and a country a

Explain basril plc, BASRIL PLC (a) (i) Analysis of projects assum...

BASRIL PLC (a) (i) Analysis of projects assume they are divisible. Project 2 NPV at 12% = (140800 × 3·605) - 450000 = $57584 Project 2 profitability index = 5

Forecasting yield volatility, There are several methods available to ...

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation. Assume th

Determine wacc- net operating cash flow- npv- irr-pi, Prepare a capital bud...

Prepare a capital budget analysis of the following data, your analysis should determine WACC, Net Operating Cash Flow, NPV, IRR, PI, and Payback analysis. This analysis is for t

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd