Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Benefits of interest rate swaps, Q. Benefits of Interest rate swaps? I...

Q. Benefits of Interest rate swaps? Interest rate swaps may provide several benefits to companies including: - The ability to get finance at a cheaper cost than would be p

Brigham, how do legal consideration affect a firms credit policy

how do legal consideration affect a firms credit policy

The ex-dividend price of novis stock, The net income of Novis Corporation i...

The net income of Novis Corporation is $45,000.  The company has 20,000 outstanding shares and a 100 percent payout policy.  The expected value of the firm one year from now is $1,

How do financial managers calculate the average tax rate, How do financial ...

How do financial managers calculate the average tax rate? Financial managers calculate the average tax rate by dividing tax dollars paid by earnings before taxes (EBT).

Discount rate determinants, Discount Rate Determinants The discount rat...

Discount Rate Determinants The discount rate is the firm weighted average cost of capital. It represents the opportunity cost of investing creditors and shareholders funds in o

Define the constructive receipt, Q. Define the Constructive Receipt? Co...

Q. Define the Constructive Receipt? Constructive Receipt - A taxpayer is considered to have received income even though monies are not in hand, it may have been set aside or ot

Brainstorming, Brainstor ming An idea production strategy that exc...

Brainstor ming An idea production strategy that exclusively encourages any and all alternatives while withholding any appreciation of those options.

Stock market indicators, Stock Market indicators: Stock indices can be ...

Stock Market indicators: Stock indices can be organized by weighting the sample of stocks. The stock indicators can be of four types: price-weighted average, volume-weighted av

Determine the fields of finance, Determine the Fields of Finance Academ...

Determine the Fields of Finance Academic discipline of financial management may be viewed as made up of five specialized fields. In every field, financial manager is dealing wi

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd