Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Define market value in modigliani miller equation, Define in the Modigliani...

Define in the Modigliani-Miller equation (MM equation), why is the market value of the levered firm greater as compared to the market value of an equivalent unlevered firm? Th

Define relationship between bond''s market price and its ytm, What is the r...

What is the relationship between a bond's market price and its promised yield to maturity?  Explain. A bond's market price relies on its yield to maturity abbreviated as YTM.  Wh

Define the term in brief -called-up share capital, Define the term in brief...

Define the term in brief -Called-up share capital Called-up share capital that you may find in some of balance sheets. It refers to that part of subscribed capital, which share

Clearly explain speculation, QUESTION 1 Assuming perfect capital mobili...

QUESTION 1 Assuming perfect capital mobility under Mundell-Fleming Model, clearly explain the effectiveness of- i) an expansionary fiscal policy under a fixed exchange rate

Linear programming, Linear programming, one of the ...

Linear programming, one of the important techniques of operations research, has been applied to a wide range of business problems. This techniqu

What is abc analysis, Q. What is ABC Analysis? ABC Analysis: - ABC Anal...

Q. What is ABC Analysis? ABC Analysis: - ABC Analysis is a method of controlling different items of inventory. Generally a firm has to maintain several different items as inven

Portfolio classification of mutual funds, Portfolio Classification of Mutua...

Portfolio Classification of Mutual Funds Mutual Funds differ with reference to the type of instruments in which the money has been invested as per the requirements of the inves

Net present value, What is Net Present Value? Describe please.

What is Net Present Value? Describe please.

Explain about death benefit, Q. Explain about Death Benefit? Death Bene...

Q. Explain about Death Benefit? Death Benefit - Amounts received under a life insurance contract and paid by reason of death of the insured. (Even though most death benefits ar

Time value of money, Ask quSteve and Ed are cousins who were both born on t...

Ask quSteve and Ed are cousins who were both born on the same day, and both turned 25 today. Their grandfather began putting $2,500 per year into a trust fund for Steve on his 20th

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd