Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Income statement and balance sheet, The following are extracts of the Incom...

The following are extracts of the Income Statement and Balance Sheet for Umar plc. Extract Balance Sheet at 30 June 20X2               20X1 £'000  £'000                £

Advantages to a company from having a robust health, Z works for HS Company...

Z works for HS Company and has been asked to undertake an assessment of any health and safety issues that might be potential hazards in the department which she manages. Z's respon

Em.pirical finanse, give me your email then i will send it to you

give me your email then i will send it to you

Objectives of working capital management, What are the objectives of workin...

What are the objectives of working capital management? Briefly explain the various elements of operating cycle.

Explain the difference between cash and profit, Explain the Difference betw...

Explain the Difference between cash and profit Cash flow statement shows all the cash in and cash out for the organisation for that period. It demonstrates the cash generating

Facts about mortgages, Lenders in the US insist upon ...

Lenders in the US insist upon some kind of mortgage insurance. There are broadly two types of mortgage insurance - one is

Participants in secondary market, PARTICIPANTS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET ...

PARTICIPANTS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET The players in the secondary capital market include: Individual Investors (Public). Companies. Mutual funds. Financial Insti

Determinants of the repo rate, Repo rates vary from transaction to tr...

Repo rates vary from transaction to transaction. They depend upon a variety of factors like: Collateral's quality Repo term

Provide three examples of mutually exclusive projects, Provide three exampl...

Provide three examples of mutually exclusive projects. Mutually elite projects are projects that compete against each other for our selection.  If a firm were considering the b

Short terms working capital, Q. Short terms working capital? 1) Indige...

Q. Short terms working capital? 1) Indigenous bankers: private money leased and other country banking used to be the only source of finance prior to the establishment of the

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd