Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

., Identify and explain the key stages in the capital investment decision-m...

Identify and explain the key stages in the capital investment decision-making process and the role of investment appraisal in this process.

What are the misstatements, Q. What are the misstatements? A Misstatem...

Q. What are the misstatements? A Misstatement is Inconsequential - If a reasonable person would determine after considering the possibility of further undetected misstatement

Describe the direct costs and variable costs, Question : (a) A project ...

Question : (a) A project must have a useful purpose. Therefore, as a project is evaluated, the team should determine the requirements of the local community and industry. These

Briefly define liquidity risk faced by a bank, Question: You have just ...

Question: You have just been appointed the secretary of the ALM Committee (ALCO) of ABN Bank. The ALCO members have some queries relating to the liquidity risk faced by the ban

What is accelerated depreciation, Q. What is Accelerated Depreciation? ...

Q. What is Accelerated Depreciation? Accelerated Depreciation - Method which records greater DEPRECIATION than STRAIGHT-LINE DEPRECIATION in the early years and less depreciati

Which ratios would a banker be most interested, Which ratios would a banker...

Which ratios would a banker be most interested in when considering whether to approve an application for a short-term business loan? Explain. Bankers and another lenders use li

Explain about the working capital management, Explain about the Working Cap...

Explain about the Working Capital Management Working Capital Management is concerned with the management of current assets. It's a significant and integral part of financial m

Sources of risk, Define Sources of risk with types???? how can we analys...

Define Sources of risk with types???? how can we analysis the risk in bussiness?? plese help!!!!!

Explain the determinants of operating exposure, Explain the determinants of...

Explain the determinants of operating exposure. Answer:  The main determinants of a company’s operating exposure are (a) The structure of the markets where the company sourc

Calculate the interest value , 1. Suppose a firm's tax rate is 35%. What af...

1. Suppose a firm's tax rate is 35%. What affect would a $10 million operating expense have on this year's earnings?  What effect would it have on next year's earnings? 2. What

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd