Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Capital budgeting., definition and importance of capiyal budgeting

definition and importance of capiyal budgeting

Pvif, how do we get the pvif of a perpetuity

how do we get the pvif of a perpetuity

Describe the internal control procedures, Board should encourage a strong c...

Board should encourage a strong control culture. Manager's bonus must not only be linked to company profits but also linked to internal control procedures being adhered to. There m

Valuation using forward rates, We can discount cash flows either by u...

We can discount cash flows either by using spot rates or forward rates, because a spot rate is simply a package of short-term forward rates. Assume that the cash

Option adjusted spread, The formula explained in the above paragraph ...

The formula explained in the above paragraph enables the investor to compute the value of a bond with an embedded option as the difference between the value of an

Report on bank''s predicts of exchange rates, Q. Report on bank's predicts ...

Q. Report on bank's predicts of exchange rates? Report on banks' predicts of exchange rates. The three banks have produced extensively differing forecasts which even involve

Interference of central bank in markets, Interference of Central bank in Ma...

Interference of Central bank in Markets: Some dilemmas exist in the issue of central bank intervention in the market to correct the volatilities in the prices. In some countrie

Macro-economic analysis, Macro-Economic Analysis Measuring the Level o...

Macro-Economic Analysis Measuring the Level of Economic Activity Gross National Product (GNP) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are the two most widely used aggregates

NET INCOME APPROACH.., You are required to compute the value of both the fi...

You are required to compute the value of both the firms using Net Income approach.

How to determine the valuation of an investment bank, My company paid an ex...

My company paid an extremely high price for the acquisition of another company; the price was recommended by the valuation of an investment bank. We now have financial crisis. Is t

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd