Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

What are the functions of financial management, Functions of Financial Mana...

Functions of Financial Management Traditional function of financial management has been limiting the role of finance toraising and administrating of funds required by the compa

Financial institution versus raising in financial markets, You are the chie...

You are the chief financial office (CFO) of Gaga Enterprises, edgy fashion design firm. Your firm needs $10 million to expand production. How do you think the process of raising th

Credit card receivable-backed securities, For holders of CARDS,...

For holders of CARDS, the interest is paid monthly and the principal is not amortized. The principal payments made by credit card borrowers are

What are the financial management problems, What are the financial manageme...

What are the financial management problems Traditional approach was challenged was that the treatment was built too closely around episodic events, like incorporation, promotio

Define country risk, Define country risk. How is it different from politica...

Define country risk. How is it different from political risk? Country risk is a broader quantify of risk as compared to the political risk, as the former encompasses political ri

What is a fair price for a share, Sega Inc. expects earnings/dividends to g...

Sega Inc. expects earnings/dividends to grow at an annual rate of 30 percent for the next 4 years. After that they feel that the market will get saturated and the growth rate will

Working capital, applicablility of operating cycle of broilers[poultry] in ...

applicablility of operating cycle of broilers[poultry] in uganda

Valuation, Valuation The process of finding out the current value of an...

Valuation The process of finding out the current value of an asset or company is known as valuation. There are various techniques that can be utilized to find value, few are su

Describes net income approach to capital structure, Q. Describes Net Income...

Q. Describes Net Income Approach to Capital Structure? Net Income Approach: - As-per to the Net Income Approach as suggested by Durand the capital structure decision is applica

Determine the calculations for the cash flows, The calculations for the cas...

The calculations for the cash flows Actual amount of cash paid or received during the period needs to be established. This can get quite  tricky  as  there  would be  accruals

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd