Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Hazard or risk, the procedures, techniques or strategies that could or shou...

the procedures, techniques or strategies that could or should be implemented to reduce the likelihood of harm > actions that could be taken to eliminate the hazard or reduce the r

Agency Problem, What is the potential of having agency problems

What is the potential of having agency problems

Yield curve risk, The graphical representation of the relationship between ...

The graphical representation of the relationship between yield and maturity is known as yield curve. Yield curve risk is the risk of experiencing an adverse

Engagement completion document, Engagement Completion Document - A document...

Engagement Completion Document - A document whereby AUDITOR identifies all significant findings or issues. Document must be as specific as essential in the circumstances for a revi

Estimating cash flows in valuation process, The first step in valuati...

The first step in valuation process is to estimate the cash flows that are expected to be received in the future. In debt securities, there are two types of possi

Gordon''s dividend equalisation model, If the EPS is Rs.5, dividend pay-out...

If the EPS is Rs.5, dividend pay-out ratio is 50%, cost of equity is 20% and growth rate in the ROI is 15%. What is the value of the stock as per Gordon's Dividend Equalisation Mod

Asset management ratios (turnover ratios), Asset management Ratios (Turnove...

Asset management Ratios (Turnover Ratios)   Receivables Turnover Ratio  It is a measure of receivables turnover.   Payables Turnover Ratio  It is a

Explain about the debt policy, Explain about the debt policy Designing...

Explain about the debt policy Designing debt policy the debt policy of a firm is significantly influenced by the cost consideration. In designing financing policy, that is, p

How howan acquisition should be implemented, How Howan acquisition should b...

How Howan acquisition should be implemented 1. Directors of the target company must be approached first and a firm offer of a price made on condition that all due diligence wor

Define depreciation expense, Define depreciation expense as it appears on t...

Define depreciation expense as it appears on the income statement. How does depreciation affect cash flow? The term accounting depreciation is the allocation of an asset's init

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd