Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Working capital, define matching principle of working capital financing

define matching principle of working capital financing

What is deposit method, Q. What is Deposit Method? Deposit Method - Rel...

Q. What is Deposit Method? Deposit Method - Related to sales of real estate, under this method seller doesn't recognize any profits, doesn't record a note RECEIVABLE and contin

Standard & poor’s analyze in determining the credit rating, What factors do...

What factors does Standard & Poor’s analyze in determining the credit rating it assigns a sovereign government? Answer: In rating a sovereign government, Standard & Poor’s anal

Define how fx futures market be used for price discovery, How can the FX fu...

How can the FX futures market be used for price discovery? Answer:  To the amount that FX forward prices are an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rates, the market antic

Financial and management accounting, the salaries paid in 2004 is rs 500000...

the salaries paid in 2004 is rs 500000 outstanding is rs 20000 salaries paid in advance for 2004 is rs 30000 what is the actual salary expenditure for 2004 which accounting princip

Define where security returns are found less correlated, Security returns a...

Security returns are found to be less correlated across countries than within a country. Why can this be? Answer:  Security returns are less correlated possibly because countries

Indexed bonds, In indexed bonds, the principal and coupon payme...

In indexed bonds, the principal and coupon payments are linked to the market index like inflation and price index. Index bonds are attractive to investors

Coverage ratio, Coverage ratios give the relationship between the financial...

Coverage ratios give the relationship between the financial charges of a firm and its ability to service them. The four most commonly used coverage ratios are:

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd