Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Management of finacial institutions, what are the features of a comprehensi...

what are the features of a comprehensive interest rate risk management programme

Calculation of cost of capital, Q. Calculation of Cost of Capital? Calc...

Q. Calculation of Cost of Capital? Calculation of Cost of Capital: - Calculation of cost of capital includes: (A) Calculation of cost of specific sources of finance (B) C

Type of hedge funds, What are the Types of Hedge Funds? Please provide me r...

What are the Types of Hedge Funds? Please provide me report on Types of Hedge Funds.

Explanation and definition of the mos, a) i = 800 units, ii = 250 units, ii...

a) i = 800 units, ii = 250 units, iii = 60% b) Explanation and Definition of the MOS. Play-it has the better MOS in absolute terms, although Tread-it has the better MOS when mea

Public provident fund, Public Provident Fund (ppf) The Public Provident...

Public Provident Fund (ppf) The Public Provident Fund (PPF) scheme was started in 1968-69 with the aim to provide a financial instrument to workers in the unorganized sector to

Calculate the investment in a project, BAGS, Inc. is considering an investm...

BAGS, Inc. is considering an investment in a new project. The required investment is $1,000,000. After-tax net cash flows are expected to be $50,000 the first year and are expected

Municipal securities, Municipal Securities are debt securities ...

Municipal Securities are debt securities issued by a State, Municipality or a County in order to finance its capital expenditures. These securit

Banking sector securities, The banking sector has a vital and active ...

The banking sector has a vital and active role in the money market. The transactions taking place in these securities are large in size, both in terms of volumes

Approaches, Briefly discuss the three approaches to the short-term financin...

Briefly discuss the three approaches to the short-term financing problem and provide relevant examples of each?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd