Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Financial control and control of working capital, a) Sponsorship - refers t...

a) Sponsorship - refers to monetary gifts or donations in support of a business or an event venture in return for a dominant display of the sponsor's name. In this case, FC Barcelo

Bid-ask quotes, As the cash manager of your company, you wish to buy $1,0...

As the cash manager of your company, you wish to buy $1,000,000 in 30-day Treasury bills. You obtain the following bid/ask quotes from three dealers:

Leverage, evaluate the importance of leverage in financial management of a ...

evaluate the importance of leverage in financial management of a small scale company

Need for assessing the risks , Define risk. Examine the need for assessing ...

Define risk. Examine the need for assessing the risks in a project

NPV, Roxanne invested $560,000 in a new business 7 years ago. The business ...

Roxanne invested $560,000 in a new business 7 years ago. The business was expected to bring in $8,000 each month for the next 26 years (in excess of all costs). The annual cost of

Explain arbitrage risk free arguments, The current market value of any real...

The current market value of any real or financial assets is the present value of the cash flows accruing to that asset discounted by a market determined risk-adjusted required rate

Determine the management buy-outs, Determine the Management buy-outs ...

Determine the Management buy-outs Management buy-outs (MBOs) The management of company buy out the shareholders. Management will usually require financial backers (ventu

Market segmentation of the term structure of interest rates, Define the mar...

Define the market segmentation of the term structure of interest rates. Market segmentation: And also the investors’ expectations regarding future interest rates and thei

Illustrate example of company objectives, Example of Company Objectives ...

Example of Company Objectives Divide from the problem of which goal a company ought to pursue are the questions of which goals companies claim to pursue and which goals they a

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd