Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Explain the meaning of ledger, Question 1 Write short notes on following- ...

Question 1 Write short notes on following- Explain any five important functions of accounting What is Book-Keeping? Explain features of book-keeping Question 2 Ex

Define the problems into capital budgeting analysis, What problems can take...

What problems can take place into the capital budgeting analysis if project debt is evaluated in place of the borrowing capacity created by the project? If project debt is grea

Call and refunding provisions, Call provision is the right of the iss...

Call provision is the right of the issuer to call back and retire the issued bonds before the maturity date. The issuer may call the bond and retire the bond by paying

Advantage of mutual funds, Advantage of mutual funds Mutual Funds are a...

Advantage of mutual funds Mutual Funds are advantageous to individual investors in relation to their direct involvement in investment portfolio activity covering the following

What are the main elements of capital budgeting decisions, What are the mai...

What are the main elements of capital budgeting decisions There are three elements of capital budgeting decisions (i) long-term assets and their composition (ii) business

Benefits of securitization, Securitization has attracted a widespread...

Securitization has attracted a widespread application of the technique to residential mortgage loan, the easiest class of a financial asset to securitize, and to

Expalin purchase outright and leaminger plc, LEAMINGER PLC (a) Purchas...

LEAMINGER PLC (a) Purchase outright (2) Balancing allowance Tax effect = 93,906 × 30% = 28,172 Finance lease Annuity Factor (AF) at 10% for 4 year

Criticism of profit maximization approach, Criticism of Profit Maximization...

Criticism of Profit Maximization Approach: (i) Ambiguous: - One practical complexity with this approach is that the term profit is ambiguous. Different people take dissimilar me

State the cash flow from investing activities, Cash flow from investing act...

Cash flow from investing activities The items included in this heading are: Cash payments Cash receipts Acquiring proper

Explain financial management in brief, Q. Explain Financial Management in b...

Q. Explain Financial Management in brief? In the management of business firms, there are various well known functional areas such as Production Management, Materials Management

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd