Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Advanced Accounting, Balance Sheets Peony Ltd. Aster Ltd. ...

Balance Sheets Peony Ltd. Aster Ltd. Assets: Cash $ 62,500 $ 25,000 Accounts receivable 187,500 200,000 Inventori

Agency debentures, These debentures are backed by integrity and credi...

These debentures are backed by integrity and creditworthiness. They do not have any specific collateral backing. Therefore, the ability of the issuing GSE to gene

Dividend yield method, Dividend yield method As per this method, the co...

Dividend yield method As per this method, the cost of Equity capital is the discount rate that equates the present value of expected future dividends per share with the net pro

Definition of capital budgeting, Q. Definition of Capital Budgeting? Ca...

Q. Definition of Capital Budgeting? Capital Budgeting is the procedure of making decisions for investment in long-term assets. It is a method of deciding whether or not to inve

Types of equity securities , Types of equaty Securities Equity securiti...

Types of equaty Securities Equity securities, traditionally, are classified into two types when they are issued. They are: Common Stock, and Preferred Stock.     Common Stoc

How do risk-averse investors compensate, How do risk-averse investors compe...

How do risk-averse investors compensate for risk when they take on investment projects? For the reason of risk aversion, people demand elevated rates of return for taking on hi

Empirical measurement of liquidity, Empirical Measurement of Liquidity: Th...

Empirical Measurement of Liquidity: The number of days a particular share is being traded reflects the liquidity of the market. If it is traded actively on 50% of the days when th

Explain pro forma financial statements management goals, Explain how manage...

Explain how management goals are incorporated into pro forma financial statements. Management put a target goal and forecasters makes pro forma financial statements under the

Cash flow, how do you find total cash outflow through maturity

how do you find total cash outflow through maturity

Problems in computations of cost of retaining earning, Q. Problems in compu...

Q. Problems in computations of cost of retaining earning? Problems in computations of cost of retaining earning: it is sometimes argued that retained earning do not involve any

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd