Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

20x6 the balances in the several accounts , At the end of March, 20X6 the ...

At the end of March, 20X6 the balances in the several accounts of Nitin & Company are as follows:

Aligning financial reports, Aligning Financial Reports: The primary pur...

Aligning Financial Reports: The primary purposes of financial systems are to provide information to interested parties.  Any reports produced through the financial management p

Financial system, Financial System: The economic development of a natio...

Financial System: The economic development of a nation is reflected by the progress of the various economic units, broadly classified into corporate sector, government and hous

Bond Valuation, The Pennington Corporation issued a new series of bonds on ...

The Pennington Corporation issued a new series of bonds on January 1, 1979. The bonds were sold at par ($1,000), have a 12 percent coupon, and mature in 30 years, on December 31,

Alternative summarised version of tests of controls, Alternative summarised...

Alternative summarised version of tests of controls · Segregation of duty (staff records are separate from wages department) · Documentation ( written evidence ) ·

base-case NPV, Ask question #MiniA project under consideration costs $750,...

Ask question #MiniA project under consideration costs $750,000, has a five-year life, and has no salvage value. Depreciation is straight-line to zero. The required return is 17 per

Approximating the percentage price change using duration, Let us expr...

Let us express the process of calculating approximate percentage price change for a given change in yield and a given duration using the following formula:

Working of financial services authority, Working of FSA The FSA Board ...

Working of FSA The FSA Board is responsible for the management of FSA. It is appointed by the Treasury. It consists of a chairman, a chief executive officer, three managing dir

Assignment, what are the features of branch accounting

what are the features of branch accounting

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd