Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Duration, Now that we have an understanding about price volatility ...

Now that we have an understanding about price volatility characteristics of a bond, let us turn to the duration/convexity approach, which is an alternative

What is the importance of investigation of incidents, Q. What is the import...

Q. What is the importance of investigation of incidents? 1. Incident investigation is the process of identifying the underlying causes of incidents and implementing steps to pr

Structure and participation of hedge funds, Structure and Participation of ...

Structure and Participation of Hedge Funds: The typical structure for a Hedge Fund is to facilitate the tax concerns of investors and fund managers. Basically, there are two or

OPERATING CYCLE, DISSCUSS THE APPLICABILITY OF AN OPERATING CYCLE IN A VEGE...

DISSCUSS THE APPLICABILITY OF AN OPERATING CYCLE IN A VEGETABLE GROWING BUSINESS IN UGANDA?

Define the primary reasons that companies hold cash, What are the primary r...

What are the primary reasons that companies hold cash? Companies hold cash to make essential payments, to take benefit of opportunities as they arise, and to cover unforeseen eme

Explain implement budget-financial delegations, 1: How will you inform your...

1: How will you inform your managers and supervisors about budgets, reporting requirements and financial delegations? 2: What mechanism you will implement to ensure that there a

Leverage, what is the meaning of market feasibility? What are its different...

what is the meaning of market feasibility? What are its different types with their degree?

Working capital financing, Do you guys provide Working Capital Financing as...

Do you guys provide Working Capital Financing assignment help? I need writing a report on Working Capital Financing and it is about 2000 words. Let me know. I need to buy your solu

Define the benefits of the jit inventory control system, What are the benef...

What are the benefits of the JIT inventory control system? The just-in-time that is abbreviated as JIT inventory control system lowers inventory carrying costs and tends to inc

State the factors of small organisations, State the factors of Small organi...

State the factors of Small organisations - More creative and dynamic - More flexible to adapt to environmental changes - More informal and small for example some people l

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd