Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Difference between mortgage bond and a debenture, Difference between mortga...

Difference between mortgage bond and a debenture? A mortgage bond is a secured bond whereas a debenture is an unsecured bond.

Explain cross border acquisitions and green field investment, Why do you th...

Why do you think the host country tends to resist cross-border acquisitions, rather as compared to green field investments? Answer: The host country is inclined to view green f

Costs affect the capital budgeting decision-making process, How do opportun...

How do opportunity costs affect the capital budgeting decision-making process? Opportunity costs reflect the foregone advantages of the alternative not chosen when a capital bu

Explain the term- operating segments, Operating segments An operating s...

Operating segments An operating segment is a component of an organisation It engages in business activities from that it can earn revenues and incur expenses(this also c

Differences between hedge funds and mutual funds, Differences between Hedge...

Differences between Hedge Funds and Mutual Funds Hedge Funds are extremely flexible in their investment options because they use financial instruments generally beyond the reach

Describe the direct costs and variable costs, Question : (a) A project ...

Question : (a) A project must have a useful purpose. Therefore, as a project is evaluated, the team should determine the requirements of the local community and industry. These

Define risk adjusted discount rate enhance capital budgeting, Explain how u...

Explain how using a risk-adjusted discount rate enhances capital budgeting decision making compared to by using a single discount rate for all projects? The risk-adjusted disco

What do you mean by shares, Q. What do you mean by Shares? Shares: issu...

Q. What do you mean by Shares? Shares: issue of the share is the most important source of the long terms capital. A company can issue various type of the share as the equity an

Illustrate miller-orr model recognises, Q. Illustrate Miller-Orr model reco...

Q. Illustrate Miller-Orr model recognises? The Miller-Orr model recognises which cash balance requirements are likely to fluctuate and that active management is required in r

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd