Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Define required cash and surplus cash, 1. What is a venture's present value...

1. What is a venture's present value? Does the past matter? What is meant by the statement, "If you are not using estimates, you are not doing a valuation?" 2. Define (a) requ

Basic assumptions of cost of capital, Basic Assumptions of Cost of Capital ...

Basic Assumptions of Cost of Capital The Cost of Capital is a dynamic concept affected by a multiplicity of economic and firm factors and assumes the following assumptions rela

Hy would a borrower be willing to pay and a lender demand, Would there be p...

Would there be positive interest rates on bonds in a world with absolutely no risk no default risk, maturity risk, and so on? Why would a, borrower be willing to pay and a lender d

HOW TO MANAGE FINANCES?, What are the strategies in managing your finances?...

What are the strategies in managing your finances? How it should be monitor?

Legal framework-asic, Legal Framework ASIC, in order to equip itself wi...

Legal Framework ASIC, in order to equip itself with its wide-ranging functions, is empowered with additional resources and new legislative powers. Towards this, the Australian

Planning and controlling the various business activities , Explain and crit...

Explain and critically evaluate : a)  The relevance of committed fixed costs in deciding the optimal mix of products to maximum a company's profit and the importance of relevant

Expected monthly return, In this exercise you will construct efficient port...

In this exercise you will construct efficient portfolios with 5 risky assets using Excel's non-linear optimization routing "Solver". The questions are designed to be sequential and

State about the quick ratio - position ratios, State about the Quick ratio ...

State about the Quick ratio or acid test Quick ratio = Current assets less inventories /Current liabilities(times) This  ratio  measures  immediate  solvency  of  a  busin

Standard & poor’s analyze in determining the credit rating, What factors do...

What factors does Standard & Poor’s analyze in determining the credit rating it assigns a sovereign government? Answer: In rating a sovereign government, Standard & Poor’s anal

Weak form level of efficiency-forms of efficiency, Weak form level of effic...

Weak form level of efficiency This level states that share prices fully reflect information in historic share price movement and patterns (past information/historic information

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd