Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Capital budgeting assignment, Assignment 2 Decision Tree Assessing Alterna...

Assignment 2 Decision Tree Assessing Alternatives in Capital Budgeting [see Bailes, J.C., and Nielsen, J.F. (2001, Winter). Using decision trees to manage capital budgets. Manag

Management accounting and financial management, Q. Distinguish between Mana...

Q. Distinguish between Management Accounting and Financial Management with clear mention of basis of differences. How does the traditional financial manager differ from the mode

Un number, 1. UN Number is a four digit number assigned to a potentially ha...

1. UN Number is a four digit number assigned to a potentially hazardous material (such as gasoline) or class of materials like corrosive liquids. 2. UN Numbers are assigned by U

Financial and economics evaluation, An offer given by charitable trust to d...

An offer given by charitable trust to develop and build a facility on a 10000 sqmt of plot in a prime locality of pune where 5000 sqmt of area will be used by the trust for housing

Short-term self-liquidating loans to business by bank. why?, Banks like to ...

Banks like to make short-term, self-liquidating loans to businesses.  Why? Banks like can see where the funds are likely to come from such that the borrower is able to use to m

Describe about comfort letter, Q. Describe about Comfort Letter? Comfor...

Q. Describe about Comfort Letter? Comfort Letter - Letter provided by a company's independent public accountant to an underwriter when underwriter has a DUE DILIGENCE responsib

Calculate amount of first coupon payment your organization, Your firm has p...

Your firm has presently issued five year floating-rate notes indexed to six-month U.S. dollar LIBOR plus 1/4%.  What is the amount of first coupon payment your organization will pa

Financial crisis , a)  Tonddu plc is expected to report record earnings of ...

a)  Tonddu plc is expected to report record earnings of £120m next year.  It has grown rapidly over the last few years, the growth has been achieved by maintaining a high level of

Mountain fresh growth, The Mountain Fresh Company had earnings per share (E...

The Mountain Fresh Company had earnings per share (EPS) of $6.32 in 2006 and $11.48 in 2011.  The company pays out 30 percent of its earnings as dividends per share (DPS), and the

Capital asset pricing model (capm), Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ...

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)   Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model which utilizes the measure of systematic risk, 'B' to price assets. The expected rate of r

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd