Forecasting yield volatility, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

There are several methods available to forecast yield volatility. But before that, let us look into the calculation of forecasted standard deviation.

Assume that a trader wants to forecast volatility at the end of 07/08/2007, by using the 20 most recent days of trading and update the forecast at the end of each trading day. To calculate these, the trader can calculate a 20-day moving average of the daily percentage yield change.

Still now it has been assumed that the moving average is an appropriate value to use for the expected value of the change in yield. But, some experts view that it would be more appropriate to assume the expected value of the change in yield to be zero. In eq. (1) by substituting zeros in place of moving average X, we get

         Variance =  380_forecasting yield volatility.png                                                                                       ...Eq (2) 

An equal weightage is assigned to all observations by the daily standard deviation given by equation 2. Therefore, a weightage of 20% for each day is given if the trader is calculating volatility based on the most recent 20 days of trading.

Greater weightage is given to recent movements in the yield or price while determining volatility, and less weightage is given to the observations that are farther in the past. Revising equation 2 to include the weightages we get,

         Variance =  1498_forecasting yield volatility1.png                                                                                        ...Eq. (3)

Wt is the weight assigned to the observations t. The sum of all the weights assigned to the observation will be equal to 1.

A time series characteristic of financial assets suggests that a high volatility period is followed by a high volatility period and a low volatility period is followed by a low volatility period. From this observation, we can tell that the recent past volatility influences current volatility. This time series property of volatility can be estimated with the help of statistical models like autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.


Related Discussions:- Forecasting yield volatility

Principle of leverage, Leveraging can be described as an investing pr...

Leveraging can be described as an investing principle where funds are borrowed to invest in a part of the securities. The manager hopes to earn a return that is g

Why too little debt is as undesirable as is too much debt, If an optimal ca...

If an optimal capital structure exists, what are the reasons why too little debt is as undesirable as is too much debt? Too little debt may be as unwanted as too much debt for

Explain the cost of capital across countries, Question 1 Cost of capita...

Question 1 Cost of capital is the minimum rate of return required by a firm on its investment in order to provide the rate of return by its suppliers of capital. Explain the co

Capital investment plans , Report based on Capital Investment Plans   ...

Report based on Capital Investment Plans   To analyze the capital investment plans of Hatsun Agro Products Limited (HAPL) we shall look at the capital expenditure of HAPL in

What are the types of inventory cost, What are the types of Inventory cost?...

What are the types of Inventory cost? Explain the elements of inventory cost also. Types: 1. Ordering cost    2. Holding cost Elements: 1. Unit cost  2. Reordering

Common size financial statement, Common Size Financial Statement Common...

Common Size Financial Statement Common Size Financial Statement is a company financial statement that shows all items as percentages of a common base figure. This kind of finan

Role of sponsor, Role of Sponsor In the establishment of mutual fund tr...

Role of Sponsor In the establishment of mutual fund trust, the main role is played by the sponsors. Both the trustees and the fund managers or the asset management company have

Risk of portfolio if asset of low correlation are combined, What happens to...

What happens to the riskiness of a portfolio if assets with very low correlations (even negative correlations) are combined? How successfully diversification decreases risk reli

Assignmebt solution, Select a company (excluding finance sector) of Bursa M...

Select a company (excluding finance sector) of Bursa Malaysia (www.bursamalaysia.com). Analyse and comment on the liquidity and profitability performance of the selected company fr

Syntax of accounting procedure, Syntax of Accounting Procedure The gen...

Syntax of Accounting Procedure The general accounting practices are: (a)  Do not consider any income or gain till the similar is realised in cash; (b)  Create or make pr

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd