Forecasting, Operation Management

Assignment Help:
The cafeteria supervisor at CarWash is interested in developing a forecast model for the number of meals to be prepared each day. The following daily data from the cafeteria’s register were collected. Using the data, the supervisor had already computed forecast values using a regression model. However, s/he would like to assess the regression model’s accuracy to a base model called “exponential smoothing.”

WORKING AREA FOR THE PROBLEM
Exponential Regression
Day Meals Forecast Error Forecast Error
1 37 36.94
2 40 38.66
3 41 40.38
4 37 42.11
5 45 43.83
6 50 45.55
7 43 47.28
8 47 49.00
9 56 50.73
10 52 52.45
11 55 54.17
12 54 55.90

a) Your job is to compute forecasts using exponential smoothing technique with alpha of 0.3. Assume the initial forecast for day 1is 37. Show details for at least three calculations


b) Is the regression model a better fit to the data? Explain why. Use CFE and MAD as accuracy measurements.


c) Regardless of your decision in part (b), assume now that CarWash had been using the regression model in forecasting. What would you conclude about its performance? Show details for updated MAD calculations, at least for three periods. Use action limits that correspond to 3s control limits, and plot the corresponding tracking signal values. (HINT: 1sigma = 1.25 MAD, action limit is plus and minus and counts for how many MAD we have in specified number of sigma.)

Related Discussions:- Forecasting

Explain supportive organization, There are four critical success factors th...

There are four critical success factors that are important for effective risk management, supportive organization, comment people, appropriate methods, tools and techniques, and si

Human resource manager for a coordinated system, You have been named human ...

You have been named human resource manager for a company that has 180 employees and no formal base pay system. What steps will you take to develope such a coordinated system?

Why service adds value to a business products and customers, Service is the...

Service is the last activity in the Value Chain. Explain how service adds value to a business products and customers.

Explain what is the method of monitoring, What is the method of monitoring ...

What is the method of monitoring and reviewing in risk management?

Which amendment has had the most impact throughout history, What are the fa...

What are the facts of the case? What is the key constitutional issue presented? Do you agree or disagree with Angel Raich's postion? Review the amendments to the U.S. Constituti

Explain do you consider them effective, Using the IT Savvy four types of th...

Using the IT Savvy four types of the CIO (page 146 IT Savvy), choose a type for each of CIO or IT leaders for all of the cases we have reviewed in this class. Give example of why y

Application of transportation models, Application of Transportation Models:...

Application of Transportation Models: 1. Transportation  Management  solution allow  importers exporters  and logistics providers to  manage the spiralling costs associated wi

Describe the cleanliness and atmosphere, First, select an independent resta...

First, select an independent restaurant located in California (fast food, fast casual restaurant, casual dining restaurant or buffet restaurant) and dine in the restaurant. You wil

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd