Forecasting, Operation Management

Assignment Help:
The cafeteria supervisor at CarWash is interested in developing a forecast model for the number of meals to be prepared each day. The following daily data from the cafeteria’s register were collected. Using the data, the supervisor had already computed forecast values using a regression model. However, s/he would like to assess the regression model’s accuracy to a base model called “exponential smoothing.”

WORKING AREA FOR THE PROBLEM
Exponential Regression
Day Meals Forecast Error Forecast Error
1 37 36.94
2 40 38.66
3 41 40.38
4 37 42.11
5 45 43.83
6 50 45.55
7 43 47.28
8 47 49.00
9 56 50.73
10 52 52.45
11 55 54.17
12 54 55.90

a) Your job is to compute forecasts using exponential smoothing technique with alpha of 0.3. Assume the initial forecast for day 1is 37. Show details for at least three calculations


b) Is the regression model a better fit to the data? Explain why. Use CFE and MAD as accuracy measurements.


c) Regardless of your decision in part (b), assume now that CarWash had been using the regression model in forecasting. What would you conclude about its performance? Show details for updated MAD calculations, at least for three periods. Use action limits that correspond to 3s control limits, and plot the corresponding tracking signal values. (HINT: 1sigma = 1.25 MAD, action limit is plus and minus and counts for how many MAD we have in specified number of sigma.)

Related Discussions:- Forecasting

Explain personal and professions experience, Based on your personal and pro...

Based on your personal and professions experience, provide examples and discuss how technological innovation resulted in change within your organization, whether it concerned proce

Causes of poor lighting, 1. Flickering tubes: This condition which may b...

1. Flickering tubes: This condition which may be due to defective conditions or by tube which has reached its working life, creates eyestrain. 2. A. Misadjusted Refle

Explain what type of transmission path, What type of transmission path does...

What type of transmission path does a fixed wireless signal require? a. line-of-sight b. non-line-of-sight c. omni-directional d. code divided

Explain criminally liable for actions of a few employees, Respondeat superi...

Respondeat superior is the theoretical basis for holding companies criminally liable for actions of their employees. Companies oftentimes have little defense against prosecution. C

MBA, What do you understand by “line balancing”? What happens if balance do...

What do you understand by “line balancing”? What happens if balance doesn’t exist?n..

Calculate a tracking signal for months, The classified department of a mont...

The classified department of a monthly magazine has use a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to forecast sales of advertising space. Results over a 20 month period

Define compare the effectiveness, Compare the effectiveness of 2 week, 4wee...

Compare the effectiveness of 2 week, 4week 6week. I just need the moving averages. For 2,4 and 6 weeks from managing operations across the supply chain book the question is startin

Explain the generic product development process, Describe the generic produ...

Describe the generic product development process described in this chapter. How does this process change for "technology push" products?

Explain growth and globalization strategies, Given Pitney Bowes' growth and...

Given Pitney Bowes' growth and globalization strategies, analyze the forces for and against maintaining an organizational culture that supports diversity as a business imperative

Explain one-factor-at-a-time experimentation, What are the advantages and d...

What are the advantages and disadvantages of full-factorial design over one-factor-at-a-time experimentation?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd