Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Linear trend equation, A cosmetics manufacturers marketing department has d...

A cosmetics manufacturers marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand and Foot Cream. We are given F sub

Why managing princibles still used today, Is Henri Fayol guide of the manag...

Is Henri Fayol guide of the managing princibles still used today or they outdated

Explain permissive actions act, Why do unions emphasize the need for cohesi...

Why do unions emphasize the need for cohesiveness? So they can issue calls for "solidarity" to members during periods of threat Because group members tend to behave different

Explain optimum service level is what percent, In a single period model if ...

In a single period model if shortage cost is four times excess cost then the optimum service level is what percent?

Find forecast energy use for spring, An Electric Company estimates its dema...

An Electric Company estimates its demand trend line (in millions of kilowatt hours) to be D = 79 + 0.52 Q, where Q refers to the sequential quarter number and Q=1 for winter 2000.

Theory of constraints in a company, Theory of Constraints in a Company ...

Theory of Constraints in a Company The XYZ Group is one of the largest landscaping companies in the United States. Sixty per cent of the business is landscape maintenance; the

Explain treatment of mental illness in the medical model, Compare the treat...

Compare the treatment of mental illness in the medical model, the public health model, and the human service model. Which model provides the best treatment or approach in your opin

Assignment on erp jit, how to write a good assignment report on erp jit

how to write a good assignment report on erp jit

Describe new technologies, "New Technologies" Please respond to the followi...

"New Technologies" Please respond to the following: •Analyze the recent applications of electronic data interchange in the health care field and determine which is the most promisi

Explain what is the expected project length, Task time estimates for the mo...

Task time estimates for the modification of an assembly line at Jim Goodale's Carbondale, Illinois, factory are as follows- a) 6.0 - b) 7.2 - c) 5.0 a d) 6.0 b,c e)

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd