Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Explain lean approach to supply chain management, Does a Vendor Managed Inv...

Does a Vendor Managed Inventory system support a "lean" approach to supply chain management? Explain

Heterogeneity and intangibility of service products, Heterogeneity and Inta...

Heterogeneity and Intangibility of Service Products Heterogeneity  Service may be variable, difficult to standardise.  Intangibility of service products  Not ea

Important of production planning, Important of Production Planning The i...

Important of Production Planning The importance of production planning maybe judged form the following facts. 1. Production Planning Sets Objectives: Production planning se

Compute a regression line and forecast the demand, The number of heart surg...

The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. Use the data below to calculate a regression line and for

Lean Synchronisation, Examples of organisations that practice Lean synchron...

Examples of organisations that practice Lean synchronisations

Explain break even analysis, Explain Break Even Analysis. Break Even A...

Explain Break Even Analysis. Break Even Analysis: This Analysis implies that at several points in the operations, total revenue equivalent total cost. This analysis is concer

Digital Cell Phone Inc., Prepare Paul Jordan''s report to John Smithers usi...

Prepare Paul Jordan''s report to John Smithers using regression analysis. Provide a summary of the cell phone industry outlook as part of Paul''s response.n..

Explain the challenges in using the mbti instrument, Describe the challenge...

Describe the challenges in using the MBTI instruments or Keirsey Temperament sorter in project management situation and how you would address them. Speculate the acceptance level o

Explain how is planning changing in the new workplace, For this week's disc...

For this week's discussion you are to post responses to the following questions: 1. how is planning changing in the new workplace? 2. Do you think planning becomes more important o

Explain product focused, 1. What are the key characteristics that would cla...

1. What are the key characteristics that would classify Wheeled Coach as a repetitive focus process strategy? 2. Let's assume you are a new hire at Wheeled Coach. Your manager a

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd