Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Number defective - np chart, Number Defective - Np Chart This type of ...

Number Defective - Np Chart This type of chart can be used when it is possible to establish a constant sample size n. It has the advantage that it is readily understood by use

Conscientiousness is a big five dimension that includes, Conscientiousness ...

Conscientiousness is a big five dimension that involve the traits of being-----------------1.unworried; secure and relax/2.imaginative and broad minded/3.responsiable; dependable a

Explain what are the challenges associated with erp system, Research ERP sy...

Research ERP systems by visiting the ERP company provider website of your choice (i.e., SAP, Ellucian, Oracle, Peoplesoft, Microsoft, Workday, etc.) Write an essay of between 750-1

Explain labour vs employment arbitrator, Use this for questions 7 and 8: Yo...

Use this for questions 7 and 8: Your Company terminated an employee for stealing a ladder. The employee filed a grievance with the union. The union argues that the employee had ver

Explain what is the total cost of this policy, Rocky Mountain Tire Center s...

Rocky Mountain Tire Center sells 20,000 go-cart tires per year. The ordering cost for each order is $40, and the holding cost is 20% of the purchase price of the tires per year. Th

Linear programming, Premier coatings Zambia ‘PCZ’ produce both interior and...

Premier coatings Zambia ‘PCZ’ produce both interior and exterior paints from two raw materials, Ml and M2. A market survey indicates that the daily demand for interior paint cannot

Illustrate the examples of the inventory control systems, Illustrate the ex...

Illustrate the examples of the inventory control systems? Examples of inventory control systems Reorder level systems: When the current stock level decreased below a

Explain market conditions profit probability, Mary Decker is thinking of su...

Mary Decker is thinking of suing the manufacturer of her car because of a defect that she believes caused her to have an accident, and kept her out of work for a year. She is suing

Explain everything else remaining constant what will occurs, Everything els...

Everything else remaining constant, when the sample size increases, which of the following occurs? The sampling error decreases. The sampling error increases. The sampling

Focused improvement programmes - improving productivity, Focused Improvemen...

Focused Improvement Programmes - Improving Productivity Allan Lawlor (1985), Director of Action Learning Associates (ALA) suggests - based on his experiences in industry and

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd