Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Explain situational or behaviorial interview, Contrast an unstructured with...

Contrast an unstructured with a situational or behaviorial interview. Also, discuss how an organization might improve the reliability and validity of the interview

Explain morale, Explain Morale. Morale: It is a measure of extent whi...

Explain Morale. Morale: It is a measure of extent which level as either high or low of voluntary cooperation illustrated by a individual or a work group and of the intensity

Explain approach the technology issues facing the company, As the advisor t...

As the advisor to Keyes what offensive or defensive strategic options would you recommend for blockbuster as the company moves forward? In particular, how would you approach the te

Explain what additional steps should the quality assurance, A quality analy...

A quality analyst wants to construct a sample mean chart for controlling a packaging process. He knows from past experience that the process standard deviation is two ounces. Each

Explain what remedies are available to him, Kristina places an order for a ...

Kristina places an order for a cake on Flowers bakery's web site. She then calls the baker to tell him that she will pay him $1000 for the specially designed cake if he will guaran

Explain creation of a microsoft project file, Creation of a Microsoft Proje...

Creation of a Microsoft Project File Follow the instructions below to create a small project file to submit to your instructor. Instructions: Load Microsoft Office Project 2007 "tr

Explain your personal professional strategy as globalization, What is your ...

What is your personal professional strategy to remain competitive in this environment as globalization increases?

Determine the implementation of lean, 1. To what extend does lean manufactu...

1. To what extend does lean manufacturing help GM to control production to meet customer needs, and how does this help to make GM competitive? 2. Do you think the implementation

Order winners - operations strategy, Order Winners - Operations Strategy ...

Order Winners - Operations Strategy These are operational capabilities that directly contribute to winning business. They are generally cited as the reasons for the purchase o

Product layout - process design, Product Layout - process design Where...

Product Layout - process design Where the volume of output is high, as in large-batch and continuous operations, it becomes economically viable to lay out the processes conti

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd