Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Why jobs needed to produce the shopping carts, A company that makes shoppin...

A company that makes shopping carts for supermarkets and other stores recently purchased some new equipment that reduces the labour content of the jobs needed to produce the shoppi

Explain fixed-design yachts, Matthew Yachts, located in Montauk, Long Islan...

Matthew Yachts, located in Montauk, Long Island, manufactured sailing yachts of all descriptions. The company had begun by building custom-designed yachts for a largely New York-ba

Explain what is the recommended production rate, The forecasted demand for ...

The forecasted demand for fudge for the next four months is 140, 160, 90 and 70 pounds. A) What is the recommended production rate if a level strategy is adopted with no back order

Explain travel from the workstations to the main aisle, A portable lunch wa...

A portable lunch wagon is to be located along the main aisle of an industrial plant. The vendor wishes to locate the wagon so that the total walking distance for his customers is m

What are complexities and risks involved with supply chains, Given the comp...

Given the complexities and risks involved with supply chains, might it make sense for a business organization to vertically integrate and be its own supply chain? Why or why not?

Explain public sector unions, Public sector unions now account for more tha...

Public sector unions now account for more than half of union members, while the private sector accounts for less than half. Why has this change occurred?

Explain measuring the impact of a capital acquisition, Measuring the impact...

Measuring the impact of a capital acquisition on productivity is an example of multifactor productivity.

Define what will be the average number of jobs in the system, A single mach...

A single machine work center has five jobs assigned to it. They are labelled, in the order of their arrival in the shop, as jobs A, B, C, D and E. The work center may work on only

Explain team communication systems, What are some of the possible biases an...

What are some of the possible biases and points of error that may arise in team communication systems? Use relevant research and citations. Please provide relevant work or project

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd