Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Design methods, Computer-Aided Design is one of the techniques used by Rega...

Computer-Aided Design is one of the techniques used by Regal Marine in the manufacturing of boats. With the aid of examples, critically discuss FIVE (5) techniques that are import

Calculate the normal time for the job, A work  sampling  study  is to  b...

A work  sampling  study  is to  be made of a typist  pool. It is  left that  typists are idle  30 % of the  time. How many observations  should  be made  in order  to  have 395.5%

Explain annualized holding period return on investment, You buy a 5 year bo...

You buy a 5 year bond with a 8% coupon rate, a YTM of 8% and a $80,000 face value. What will your annualized holding period return (HPR) on this investment be if you hold the bond

MB0044, What do you understand by “line balancing”? What happens if balance...

What do you understand by “line balancing”? What happens if balance doesn’t exist?

How to use the virtual organization link on the student, Resources: Univers...

Resources: University Library, Kudler Fine Foods Virtual Organization Use the Virtual Organization link on the student website to access additional company information on Kudler

Compute productivity indices and compare rises productivity, 1. Productivit...

1. Productivity is considered by many to be the essence of operations management - suggest reasons to support this assertion.  2. Using the figures in the table, if we use 2000

Explain biggest challenges are to a hpt professional, What do you think the...

What do you think the biggest challenges are to a HPT professional in the Analysis phase of a project? Why?

Explain project life cycle differ from a product life cycle, I asked the wr...

I asked the wrong question last time. I asked it wrong. How does a project life cycle differ from a product life cycle?

Define the concept of a process approach, Explain the concept of a process ...

Explain the concept of a process approach. What is scope? Explain the concepts of normative references?

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd