Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Discuss factors are vital for the success, Selecting the right projects ...

Selecting the right projects Selecting the right parteners Providing an effective leadership Discuss why these factors are vital for the success of international construct

Explain eliminating the scrap, An operation has a 10% scrap rate. As a resu...

An operation has a 10% scrap rate. As a result, 72 pieces per hour are produced. What is the potential increase in labour productivity that could be achieved by eliminating the scr

Explain create a more motivated workforce, How can job design be used to cr...

How can job design be used to create a more motivated workforce? Be specific.

Find locations for a plant to produce a new product, A manufacturing firm i...

A manufacturing firm is considering two locations for a plant to produce a new product. The two locations have fixed and variable costs as follows: Site Fixed Cost (Annual) Variabl

Explain traditionally non-user input environment, To what extent should end...

To what extent should end users be involved in the design of a database? How have our ideas of agile development environments affected this traditionally non-user input environment

Explain the challenges faced by front-line employees, Discuss how front-lin...

Discuss how front-line employees are critical to customer assessment of service quality. Identify the challenges faced by front-line employees.

#title, Ask question #Mi.. Explain how the consideration of environmental a...

Ask question #Mi.. Explain how the consideration of environmental assesments AND ORGANISATION position provide a modeling framework for strategic planning of operations.

Factors affecting productivity improvement, Factors Affecting Productivity ...

Factors Affecting Productivity Improvement  As has already been stressed, productivity improvement is not simply concerned with finding ways of making people work harder, nor

Heather, A job was timed for 60 cycles & had an ave. 1.3 min per piece. per...

A job was timed for 60 cycles & had an ave. 1.3 min per piece. performance rate is 95%, workday allowances 16% find observes , normal, and standard time

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd