Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Explain technique to develop a forecast for the expected, air travel on Mou...

air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past 18 weeks was: Week Passengers 1 404 2 410 3 420 4 415 5 412 6 419 7 424 8 433 9 438 10 440 11 446 12 451 13 455 14 460 15 466 16 474 17

What kinds of gatekeepers in the organization required, What kinds of "gate...

What kinds of "gatekeepers" in the organization might be especially helpful to you in your position as a department supervisor?

Explain overwhelming moral dilemmas, Should ethical concerns be part of lif...

Should ethical concerns be part of life's everyday experience, or is it only necessary when we are faced with overwhelming moral dilemmas? Please state why you have come to this co

Describe key issues and concerns, As area sales manager for a company manuf...

As area sales manager for a company manufacturing and marketing outboard engines, you have been assigned the responsibility of conducting a research study to estimate the sales pot

What deliver the message to management, Please give a detailed explanation ...

Please give a detailed explanation for the answer for the following scenario: As the manager of a plant, you have seen production increase by 20% over the past year, but you have a

Advantage of vogel approximation method, Advantage of Vogel Approximation ...

Advantage of Vogel Approximation Method a. This method is very systematic. b. This method takes lesser time in solving transportation problem. c. Less computation a

Opm, Transformation process

Transformation process

Explain technology have an impact on capacity planning, In what ways does t...

In what ways does technology have an impact on capacity planning?

Explain striking in order to have a union recognized, Elections under the N...

Elections under the NLRA were intended to replace the need for striking in order to have a union recognized.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd