Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Explain project selection, "Project Selection" •For the purpose of completi...

"Project Selection" •For the purpose of completing the requirements of this course, select an actual business or personal project that assumes duration of 15 months and a functiona

Work study, techniques & applicationa

techniques & applicationa

Explain term everybody''s doing it, How common do you think it is for peopl...

How common do you think it is for people to try to justify their conduct by the argument that "Everybody's doing it"? Give examples from your own experience.

Describe functions you would include in this sswg, As the System Safety Eng...

As the System Safety Engineer for your firm, you are writing a System Safety Working Group (SSWG) charter. List 6 individuals/functions you would include in this SSWG and the reaso

Calculate the standard time for the job, An  industrial  engineer  has obta...

An  industrial  engineer  has obtained the  following data  in connection  with a  time  study on  the lines  of the Hawthorne  studies  taking  four different  elements  and five

Explain what output rate will be achieved, An assembly line with 30 activit...

An assembly line with 30 activities is to be balanced. The total amount of time to complete all 30 activities is 42 minutes. The longest activity takes 2.4 minutes and the shortest

Explain projected return on the owner''s equity investment, Carter Dalton i...

Carter Dalton is well on his way to starting a new venture-- Max, Inc. He has projected a need for $350,000 in initial capital. He plans to invest $150,000 himself and either borro

Explain do you consider them effective, Using the IT Savvy four types of th...

Using the IT Savvy four types of the CIO (page 146 IT Savvy), choose a type for each of CIO or IT leaders for all of the cases we have reviewed in this class. Give example of why y

Explain the preferred process for space and equipment, Susan is considering...

Susan is considering outsourcing the daily room clean-up for her motel to Duffy's Maid Service. Susan rents an average of 50 rooms rented for each of 365 nights (365*50=total rooms

Evaluate many supply chain strategy considerations, Evaluate various supply...

Evaluate various supply chain strategy considerations for managers moving products or services to the consumer.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd