Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Explain phases in a project life cycle, An important factor used to determi...

An important factor used to determine the phases in a project life cycle are the control needs of the organization(s) involved in the project. True or False

Column minima method, Column Minima Method: Step 1: Determine  the  ...

Column Minima Method: Step 1: Determine  the  smallest cost in  the first  column  of the  transportation  table. Let it be  C1j  . allocate  Xi1= min ( ai bi ) in the cell

Variables - statistical process control, Variables - Statistical Process Co...

Variables - Statistical Process Control The output of many processes can be measured, and an individual measurement may take any value on a continuous scale. For example, this

Process planning procedure, Process Planning Procedure  The process pl...

Process Planning Procedure  The process planning procedure has the followings steps as shows in figure as

Manufacturing process technology, Manufacturing Process Technology New...

Manufacturing Process Technology New products are not physical realities until are manufactured. Process technology refers to the equipment, people and systems used to produce

Explain cosmetic window dressing, Do Whole Foods Market's mission/vision an...

Do Whole Foods Market's mission/vision and the core values as presented in cases Exhibit 1 and 3 really matter? Are they "real" or just cosmetic window dressing? What evidence can

Define a simple cpm network has five activities, A simple CPM network has f...

A simple CPM network has five activities, A, B, C, D, and E. A is an immediate predecessor of C and of D. B is also an immediate predecessor of C and of D. C and D are both immedia

Explain stage of the lifecycle, What are come strategic initiatives that Si...

What are come strategic initiatives that Sigma could pursue to prolong its growth naming the product lifecycle and how Sigma will need to recognize the stage of the lifecycle?

When the lrac curve slopes downward over the relevant range, In which of th...

In which of the following situations would consideration of the minimum efficient scale of operation suggest that the market should be served by a large number of small firms to mi

Define the relationships among the four functions of manage, Explain the re...

Explain the relationships among the four functions of management? Please dont copy paste from google.

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd