Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

What are the characteristics of service organisations, What are the charact...

What are the characteristics of service organisations? The characteristics of service organisations are as given below: a. Intangibility for illustrations no physical subs

Define the evolution of leadership theory, Discuss the evolution of leaders...

Discuss the evolution of leadership theory from "Trait Theory" to "Behaviour Theory" to "Contingency Theory "Give an example of contemporary Leadership Theory.

Presentation of performance measures - operations strategy, Presentation of...

Presentation of Performance Measures - Operations Strategy A useful way of presenting performance measures is to sketch them in a polar representation with each line represent

How do the stop process enter into the planning process, How does the stop ...

How does the stop process enter into the planning process?

Explain training programs relate to the company''s business, How do Loews' ...

How do Loews' training programs relate to the company's business strategy?

Describe benefits of free international trade, What are the benefits and di...

What are the benefits and disadvantages of free international trade for the United States?

Explain a technique that uses a series of probability, A technique that use...

A technique that uses a series of probability distributions and then transforms them into various risks is called: Answer Probability estimating Monte Carlo simulation

Assignment problem, Six Operators are to be assigned to five jobs with the ...

Six Operators are to be assigned to five jobs with the cost of assignment in Rs. given in the matrix below. Determine the optimal assignment. Which operator will have no assignment

Evaluate the performance of a bank holding company, The purpose of the proj...

The purpose of the project is to evaluate the performance of a bank holding company of your choice. 1. Choose a bank holding company. You can choose from Top 50 BHCs or find a b

Why communication is an important consideration in firms, Communication is ...

Communication is an important consideration in organizations, and a number of different constructs fit within the communication viewpoint. What types of leader communication attitu

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd