Describe double exponential smoothing, Operation Management

Assignment Help:

The Cardinal Electronics Company must project the sales of cellular phones for the next year (called year 2). The number of cell phones sold by Cardinal Electronics in each of the past 6 months (July of year 1 through December of year 1) is shown below. Month Number of Cellular Phones Sold July 183 August 215 September 294 October 333 November 410 December 438 a. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2 using a rolling (i.e. updated at end of each month when new demand data becomes available) 4-month linear regression model. For example, forecasts generated at the end of October are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months July through October and forecasts generated at the end of December are made by fitting a linear regression to the demands in months September through December. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for a rolling 4-month linear regression model. b. Using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) with ? = 0.15 and ?= 0.10 (i.e. assume the data has a linear trend pattern), forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in January of year 2. Forecast the number of cellular phones demanded in July of year 2. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for your double exponential smoothing model. c. Based on the measures of forecast accuracy you calculated for the part a) linear regression model and the part b) DES (0.15, 0.10) model, which model is a better fit for this data?


Related Discussions:- Describe double exponential smoothing

Explain effectiveness change as an organization grows, The __________ _____...

The __________ ____________ ___________ approach to success suggests that measures of effectiveness change as an organization grows. Answer

Explain what are the factors that must be considered, In this fast paced an...

In this fast paced and complex environment, many companies are finding they cannot do it alone. An effective supply chain of partners is becoming more and more of a necessity. Let'

Oprations process design, what is operation process design ? what are the i...

what is operation process design ? what are the important factors that effect a process design

Explain system concept of organisation, Explain system concept of organisat...

Explain system concept of organisation. System concept of Organisation: a) System is a group of independent although inter dependent elements (termed as sub-systems) that

Explain manager able to overcome your resistance, Managers, think back to a...

Managers, think back to a time when a manager announced a change that you, the employee, did not want to adopt. What was the reason(s) for your resistance to change? Was the manage

Explain what constitutes operations, What constitutes "operations" at (a) a...

What constitutes "operations" at (a) a bank, (b) a retail store, (c) a hospital, (d) a cable TV company

Explain supply chain might also benefit the national economy, The bullwhip ...

The bullwhip effect is often blame for the boom-and-bust cycles in our national economy. Which of the remedies for eliminating this effect in a supply chain might also benefit the

Supply, Introduction about law of supply

Introduction about law of supply

Alternative control chart constructions, Alternative Control Chart Construc...

Alternative Control Chart Constructions In this treatment of the subject, description has been of charts with both warning and action limits, and these limits calculated with

Describe communication skills, From the scenarios, we see that Chris and Er...

From the scenarios, we see that Chris and Erica have different communication styles that could potentially have a negative impact on the business. Suggest at least two strategies t

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd