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Constructing the Model
Steps:
1) Identify the objectives of the simulation (A detailed listing of the results expected will help to clarify the output variables.
2) Recognize the input variables. Differentiate among controlled and non-controlled variables.
3) Where necessary determine the probability distribution
4) Identify any parameters and status variables
5) Identify the output variables
6) Determine the logic of the model
Note:
The key questions are how the input variables changed into output results is, what formulae/decision rules are required? How will the probabilistic elements be deal with? How must the outcomes be presented?
Transition probabilities These are the probabilities of moving from one state to another in the next time period. Usually they are written in the form of a probability matrix.
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