Compute the probability, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

From past experience a machine is termed to be set up correctly on 90 percent of occasions.  If the machine is set up correctly then 95 percent of good parts are expected however if the machine is not set up correctly then the probability of a good part is only 30 percent.

On a specific day the machine is set up and the first component produced and found to be good.  What is the probability that the machine is set up appropriately.

Solution:

This is shown in the form of a probability tree or diagram as given below:

2000_Compute the Probability.png

 Whereas: CS - Correct Setting

IS - Incorrect Setting

GP - Good Product

BP - Bad Product

P(CSGP) = 0.9 × 0.95 = 0.855

P(CSBP) = 0.9 × 0.05 = 0.045

P(ISGP) = 0.1 × 0.3 =   0.03

P(ISBP) = 0.1 × 0.7 =    0.07

                                   1.00

- Probability of obtaining a good part (GP) = CSGP or ISGP

                                                            = CSGP + ISGP

                                                            = 0.855 + 0.03 = 0.885

Note: Good parts may be produced while the machine is correctly set up and when also it's incorrectly setup. In 1000 trials, 855 occasions while its correctly setup and good parts produced as CSGP and 30 occasions while its incorrectly setup and good parts produced as ISGP.

- Probability that the machine is correctly set up after getting a good part.

= number of favoural outcomes/total possible outcomes

=P (CSGP)/P(GP)

= 0.855/ 0.885

= 0.966

Or

= P (CS|GP)

= P (CSGP)/P(GP)

= 0.855/ 0.885

= 0.966


Related Discussions:- Compute the probability

Calculate the average return, A department store faces a decision for a sea...

A department store faces a decision for a seasonal product for which demand can be high, medium or low. The purchaser can order 1, 2 or 3 lots of this product before the season beg

Sample space, Sample Space is the totality of all possible out...

Sample Space is the totality of all possible outcomes of an experiment. Hence if the experiment was inspecting a light bulb, the only possible outcomes

QM II, A HOSPITAL CURRENTLY ORDERS SALINE AT THE BEGINNING OF EACH MONTH. T...

A HOSPITAL CURRENTLY ORDERS SALINE AT THE BEGINNING OF EACH MONTH. THIS MONTH, THEY HAD 178 BAGS OF SALINE IN STOCK AND ORDERED 1,277 BAGS. DEMAND FOR SALINE IS NORMALLY DISTRIBUTE

Iti, Gm signal is better than am signal becuase

Gm signal is better than am signal becuase

Method to determine solution is absolute value, Method to determine solutio...

Method to determine solution is absolute minimum/maximum value Let's spend a little time discussing some methods for determining if our solution is in fact the absolute minimum

Word problems, if I read 6 hours of spring break how many minutes did ...

if I read 6 hours of spring break how many minutes did read

Unitary method, what is history of Unitary method

what is history of Unitary method

Find coordinates, I need the coordinates for this equation Y=1/2-4

I need the coordinates for this equation Y=1/2-4

Fundamental theorem of calculus, Fundamental Theorem of Calculus, Part I ...

Fundamental Theorem of Calculus, Part I As noted through the title above it is only the first part to the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. The first part of this theorem us

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd