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Q. Augmented Phillips curve?
Remember that Phillips curve, as it was incorporated into the Keynesian model, presumed a stable relationship between wage inflation andunemployment: for a given level of unemployment (say U = 5%), a given level of wage inflation would apply (say Πw = 4%). As U increased, Πw would fall and vice versa.
Mathematically, Phillips curve may be explained by a decreasing function f as Πw = f(U). In neo-classical synthesis, expected inflation is added and Πw = f(U) + Πe. To justify this amendment, imagine U = 5% and Πw = 4% (so that we are on Phillips curve) and expected inflation rises from 4% to 6%. As employees care about real wages, it's reasonable to presume that Πw will increases as well (for a given U) and Phillips curve will shift upwards.
Figure: The augmented Phillips curve
According to synthesis, Phillips curve should be drawn for a given value of Πe and it should be shifted upwards (downwards) as Πe increases (decreases). When position of Phillips curve is allowed to depend on Πe, is known as augmented Phillips curve (or expectations-augmented Phillips curve). This amendment to Phillips curve is actually a consequence of a criticism of conventional Phillips curve and Keynesian model from the late 1960's (Keynesian - Monetarism debate).
can u please tell me why lag length criteria is used during estimation of VAR model? what is the purpose of lag length criteria and how it can be interpreted?
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