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Abnormal Earnings Valuation Model
Abnormal Earnings Valuation Model is a method to analyse the value of the firm. The value of the firm can be the sum of three components - the original invested capital, the normal rate of return and the abnormal return on invested capital. The equity value of the firm is given as
BV0 + S AEt/(1+r)t
where BVt = Book value of equity at beginning of year t
r = Cost of equity capital
AEt = Expected value of abnormal earnings in year t
= Projected earnings in yr t -(r * BV of equity at beginning of year t)
This model is basically a rearrangement of the DCF model. It combines "current value" on the balance sheet with the present value of future "abnormal earnings". It has a few advantages over DCF, the first being its simplicity due to the forecasting of the accounting variables. The terminal value represents only a stream of abnormal earnings beyond the forecast horizon as compared to the forecast of cash flows in the DCF model.
This method does have some shortcomings. It is dependent on the initial book value, BV0. Also, the book value fails to account for certain assets that do not generate cash flows. Things like patents, trademarks etc are not accounted for and they may cause the abnormal earnings to persist. Also, the option to back out of a project/business is not included.
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