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Problem 4.Consider the following time series data representing quarterly sales of dishwashers at Big Boys Appliances over the past two years:
Time
Sales
2010 Quarter 1
25
2010 Quarter 2
85
2010 Quarter 3
64
2010 Quarter 4
30
2011 Quarter 1
70
2011 Quarter 2
125
2011 Quarter 3
105
2011 Quarter 4
90
The scatter plot of the data above shows seasonality with trend. Hence, a multiple regression model is run to forecast the demand. We denote sales (Y) as the depend variable, and denote time (t, with t=1 represent the first quarter of 2010) and dummy variables (S1, S2, and S3) as independent variables. Here, we choose quarter 4 as the baseline and adopt three seasonality dummy variables, such that S1=1 represents quarter 1, S2=1 represents quarter 2, and S3=1 represents quarter 3. Answer the following questions. Use α=0.05.
(5 points) Use the above variable definition to code the data above.
Sales(Y)
Time (t)
S1
S2
S3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Copy all data into Excel and run the corresponding multiple regression. Write the estimated multiple regression equation use the variables defined above. (Hint: No need to conduct backwards elimination at this point.)
Explain the meaning of the slopes for seasonally dummy variable S1, S2, and S3. (Note: Use actual variable name and numbers to answer the questions. Put numbers in the right context.)
Test the overall fitness of the model. (State the hypotheses, and use Significant F to complete your test, use short version of 7 steps.)
Which variables in the current regression model are significant? And which are not significant? Justify your answer. (short version of 7 steps)
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