Word problem for probability ratio

Assignment Help Basic Statistics

Reference no: EM13103455

Trying to complete the below word problem but not sure how to solve.
________________

It is said that Napoleon assessed probabilities at the battle of waterloo in 1815. his hopes for victory depended on keeping the English and Prussian armies seperated. Believing that they had not joined forces on the morning of the fateful battle, he indicated his belief that he had a 90% chance of defeating the English; P(Napoleon wins) = .90

When told later that elements of the Prussian force had joined the English, Napoleon revised his opinion downward on the basis of this information, but his posterior probability was still 60%;

P(Napoleon Wins|Prussian and English Join forces) = .60

Suppose Napoleon were using Bayes' theorm to revise his information. To do so, he would have had to make some judgements about P(Prussian and English Join forces |Napoleon Wins) and P(Prussian and English Join forces |Napoleon loses). In particular, he would have had to judge the ratio of these two probabilities.

Based on the prior and posterior probabilities given above, what is that ratio?

Reference no: EM13103455

Questions Cloud

Relation of poisson and binomial distribution : If X and Y are two independent Poisson random variables, then show that the conditional distribution of X given X+Y is binomial.

Company manufacture a quality line of home kitchen appliance : You've just learned that your primary competitor has just cut their prices to the consumer by 7%. Illustrate what might be some reasons that would support their decision to make a price reduction? Illustrate what should be your thoughtful reaction..

What is the final temperature of the gas : A mass rests on top of the piston. The initial temperature of the system is 305 K and the pressure of the gas is held constant at 137 kPa. The temperature is now increased until the height of the piston rises from 23.4 cm to 27.0 cm. What is the f..

The roommate problem and intern assignment problem : Implementation of both the algorithms using C/C++ code 1. roommates problem 2. Intern Problem

Word problem for probability ratio : Suppose Napoleon were using Bayes' theorm to revise his information. To do so, he would have had to make some judgements about P(Prussian and English Join forces |Napoleon Wins) and P(Prussian and English Join forces |Napoleon loses).

Problem related to least squares equation : Assume the least squares equation is Y' = 10 + 20X. What does the value of 10 in the equation indicate?

Fast-food chains like mcdonald''s promote customer loyalty : Fast -food chains like McDonald's promote customer loyalty by offering similar experiences at all their stores. How much do you think McDonald's can let franchise owners in international locations experiment

Illustrate what is the general obligation parties must count : Illustrate what is the general obligation parties must be able to count on in the system of free enterprising?

What is the initial acceleration of a : Objects A and B are both positively charged. Both have a mass of 400g , but A has twice the charge of B. When A and B are placed 25cm apart, B experiences an electric force of 0.54N . What is the charge on A? If the objects are released, what is t..

User Account

All Pages