Reference no: EM132001073

1. Tyler Newport

I am glad to see you went outside of the book and brought in research from other sources. Would you say that the delphi model is worth the work required to use it? It seems a bit complicated and uses a lot of people. Which would you say is best for a small mom and pop shop? I'd vote for time series models, simply because the store has been there for a long time so they know their local market pretty well.

2. Sylvester Lloyd

Discussion

The different types of forecasting methods are qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative method is based on decisions of gathered information or having a feeling about something based on their inner emotions or experiences. Markets and sales plays a part among others as well, and there are no equations for qualitative.

Quantitative method relies on forecasting models using diagrams of math to compute the best outcome using a variety of numbers.

A time-series model generally consists of trend, seasonality, cycles, and random variation. Time-Series Models attempt to predict the future by using historical data. Causal Models include factors that influence what is being forecast.

Causal forecasting models generally consider several variables related to that being forecast and are, therefore, more powerful than time-series methods that use only historic values.

Qualitative Models include expert opinions/judgment, individual experiences, and other subjective factors.

Researchers or project managers utilize exponential smoothing when there are new forecast based on last periods forecast + a (last periods actual demands - last periods forecast) where a = soothing constant, high a gives more weight to the current data, low a gives more weight to past data.

Delphi technique gives an advantages which covers a wide range of information covering qualitative based decision making.