Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts

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Reference no: EM131804175

Problem (Algorithmic)

Consider the following time series data.

Week	1	2	3	4	5	6
Value	19	12	15	11	17	14

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy:

Mean absolute error (MAE)

Mean squared error (MSE)

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

Round your answers to two decimal places.

MAE =

MSE =

MAPE =

Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers to two decimal places.

MAE =

MSE =

MAPE =

Which method appears to provide the more accurate forecasts for the historical data?

Average of all the historical data

Explain.

The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.

Reference no: EM131804175

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