Reference no: EM133826551
Homework: Economics- Forecasting
Introduction
This homework will test your knowledge of basic statistical concepts, the components of time series data, and using a correlogram for model selection.
Instructions
Submit your answers to all questions in a Word document. Download the data sets and use Excel to solve the problems.
Question I: Thirty graduate students were asked how many credit hours they were taking in the current quarter.
1. Calculate the mean, median, standard deviation, variance, and range for this sample using Excel. Write a sentence explaining what each measure means.
2. What is the standard error of the mean based on the data?
3. What would be the best point estimate for the population credit hours? ("Population" refers to all graduate students' credit hours in the universe.)
4. What is the 95% confidence interval for the means of credit hours? What is the 90% confidence interval?
Question II: An investment manager has been working on a report for forecasting Apple stock price. Your job is to help him to determine whether there is a trend and/or seasonality in Apple stock prices.
A. Prepare a time series plot of these data. (In Word document as well as in Excel)
B. Include a trend line using the Excel Analysis ToolPak. On the basis of your analysis, do you think there is a significant trend in Apple stock prices? Explain.
Watch the YouTube video to learn how to add a trendline: "How to Add a Trendline in Excel".
A. Is there seasonality? Explain.
B. What forecasting method might be appropriate for Apple stock prices according to the guidelines provided in your Table 2.1 (Chapter 2, page 58) of your textbook? (Textbook: J. Holton Wilson and Barry P. Keating, Forecasting and Predictive Analytics with ForecastX, 7th ed., McGraw-Hill Publishers, 2018. ISBN: 9781259903915)
Question III: The given figure is the correlogram for the total number of houses in the U.S. (quarterly data).
On the basis of the correlogram, do you think there is a significant trend? Explain.