Reference no: EM131089994

Sociology 674 - Elementary Demographic Techniques Test 2-

1) Answer the following four questions about reproduction rates (20 points).

a. Provide a brief interpretation of the Gross Reproduction Rate.

b. Does a GRR of 1.0 correspond to replacement level fertility? Why or why not?

c. Under what circumstances would the Gross Reproduction Rate be equal to the Net Reproduction Rate?

d. Consider two countries with identical Net Reproduction Rates. The mean age of childbearing is 21.5 in Country X and 26.4 in Country Y. Which country's population has a higher growth rate? Why?

2) The following information is for men in the Philippines in 1980. Answer the three questions below.

Age group	Number of marriages	Percent never married
15-19	36,000	91
20-24	149,000	54
25-29	103,000	24
30-34	33,000	12
35-39	12,000	8
40-45	6,900	6
45-49	3,800	5
50-54		5
Total	343,700

a. What is the mean age at marriage for Philippine men in 1980? 

b. What is the median age at marriage?

c. What is the singulate mean age at marriage?

3) Use this 1985 life table for women in Ireland to answer the five questions below.

1985 life table for women in Ireland

x	qx	dx	lx	Lx	Tx	ex
0	0.0079	790	100,000	99,337	7,649,387	76.49
1-5	0.0017	167	99,210	396,440	7,550,050	76.10
5-10	0.0008	78	99,043	495,020	7,153,610	72.23
10-15	0.0009	90	98,965	494,601	6,658,590	67.28
15-20	0.0013	128	98,875	494,056	6,163,989	62.34
20-25	0.0018	174	98,747	493,300	5,669,933	57.42
25-30	0.0014	134	98,573	492,530	5,176,633	52.52
30-35	0.0032	316	98,439	491,405	4,684,103	47.58
35-40	0.0042	409	98,123	489,592	4,192,698	42.73
40-45	0.0076	744	97,714	486,708	3,703,106	37.90
45-50	0.0117	1,131	96,970	482,020	3,216,398	33.17
50-55	0.0214	2,047	95,838	474,076	2,734,378	28.53
55-60	0.0366	3,437	93,792	460,367	2,260,302	24.10
60-65	0.0629	5,684	90,355	437,564	1,799,935	19.92
65-70	0.0943	7,980	84,671	403,403	1,362,371	16.09
70-75	0.1622	12,442	76,690	352,347	958,968	12.50
75-80	0.2494	16,021	64,248	281,190	606,621	9.44
80-85	0.4143	19,981	48,228	191,186	325,431	6.75
85+	1.0000	28,247	28,247	134,245	134,245	4.75

a. What is life expectancy at birth?

b. For a woman who survives until age 55, how many more years can she expect to live?

c. What is the probability of dying between exact age 20 and exact age 50?

d. What is the probability of surviving from exact age 60 to exact age 80?

e. If these death rates (probabilities) were to continue indefinitely and if 100,000 baby girls were born in Ireland every year for the foreseeable future, what would the total female population of Ireland be in 100 years?

f. In the scenario described in (e), how many women would there be between exact ages 20 and 25?

4) Based on the following hypothetical data, answer the four questions below.

	Country 1			Country 2
Age	# women at mid-year	# births	ASFR (per 1,000)	# women at mid-year	# births	ASFR (per 1,000)
15-19	2,000	100	50.00	3,200	128	40.00
20-24	2,200	400	181.82	3,000	480	160.00
25-29	2,500	350	140.00	3,000	345	115.00
30-34	2,700	200	74.07	2,900	189	65.00
35-39	3,000	100	33.33	2,700	68	25.00
40-45	3,500	50	14.29	2,500	38	15.00
45-49	3,700	25	6.76	2,300	12	5.00
Total	19,600	1,225		19,600	1,260

a. What is the General Fertility Rate for each country?

b. Why is the GFR for country 2 greater than that of country 1?

c. What is the Total Fertility Rate for each country?

d. Which country has higher fertility?

5. A mysterious disease affects some children born to an indigenous tribe living in a tropical rain forest. Among children born with this disease, 70% die in the first year of life. Among those who survive the first year of life 60% die before reaching age two. 50% of survivors to age 2 die before age 3 and 50% of survivors to age 3 die before age 4. No child born with this disease has ever reached his/her fifth birthday. Based on this information, answer the following questions:

a. What is the average life expectancy of a child born with this disease?

b. How long can a child with this disease expect to live if he/she survives the first year of life?

c. Assume that the population of this indigenous tribe is stationary. If 100 children are born with this disease every year, how many children are there in the population suffering from this disease in any given year?