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The operations manager of a factory must decide whether to stock a particular spare part. The part is absolutely essential to the operation of certain machines in the plant. Stocking the part costs $8 per day in storage and cost of capital. If the part is in stock, a broken machine can be repaired immediately, but if the part is not in stock, it takes one day to get the part from the distributor, during which the broken machine sits idle. The cost of idling one machine for a days is $55. There are 50 machines in the plant that require this particular part. The probability that any one of them will break and require the part to be replaced on any one day is only 0.005 (regardless of how long since the part was previously replaced).
a) What is the probability that exactly two out of the 50 machines break down on any given day?
b) What is the probability that more than one of the 50 machines break down on any given day?
c) If the plant manager wants to minimize his expected cost, should he keep zero, one, or two parts in stock?
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