Reference no: EM132464119

An oil company purchased an option on Land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities:

P(high-quality oil) = 0.4

P(medium-quality oil)= 0.5

P(no oil)= 0.1

After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken.The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow:

P(soil | high-quality oil) = 0.3

P(soil | medium-quality oil) = 0.4

P(soil | no oil)= 0.3

What is the new probability of finding oil?

Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 4 decimals).

P(high-quality oil | soil) =

P(medium-quality oil | soil) =

P(no oil | soil) =

What is the new probability of finding oil (to 4 decimals)?