Reference no: EM131880352

Forecasting Assignment Question -

Q1: Given the data below, what is the forecast using a 4-period moving average?

Day	Actual Demand	Forecasted Demand
Monday	75	X
Tuesday	55	X
Wednesday	62	X
Thursday	79	X
Friday	53
Saturday	91
Sunday	88
Monday	65
Tuesday	75
Wednesday	72
Thursday	84
Friday	68
Saturday	59
Sunday	85

Q2: Using the same data from Question 1, what is the forecast for Monday if you use a weighted moving average given the following weights (note: w1 corresponds to the most recent data followed by w2 and so on).

w1	0.30
w2	0.15
w3	0.45
w4	0.10

Q3: Again, using the data from Question 1, calculate the forecast for the coming Monday using the simple exponential smoothing technique. The relevant parameters are:

Sunday forecast = 72

alpha = 0.1

What effect on Monday's forecast would increasing the alpha value have?

The forecast would remain constant

The forecast would increase

The forecast would decrease

Alpha does not affect the forecast

Q4: Practice with error terms:

Monthly sales for Computer Success are shown below:

Given the data, what is the forecast for April to December if you use a 3-period moving average to complete the forecast table?

Month	Sales? ($)
January	3,000
February	3,400
March	3,700
April	4,100
May	4,700
June	5,700
July	6,300
August	7,200
September	6,400
October	4,600
November	4,200
December	3,900

Question - Using the same data as in Question 4, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the data using the 3-period moving average?

Question - Using the same data as in Question 4, what is the mean squared error (deviation) (MAD) for the data using the 3-period moving average?

Question - Using the same data as in Question 4, what is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the data using the 3-period moving average? For this case, enter your percentage as a whole number (e.g., 12 as opposed to 12% or 0.12)

Q5: Monthly sales for Computer Success are shown below:

Given the data, what is the average forecast error (i.e., mean bias) if you use a 3-period weighted moving average to complete the forecast table? In this case, the weights are 0.5, 0.375, and 0.125 with the highest weight being attributed to the most recent data.

Month	Sales? ($)
January	3,000
February	3,400
March	3,700
April	4,100
May	4,700
June	5,700
July	6,300
August	7,200
September	6,400
October	4,600
November	4,200
December	3,900

Question - Using the same data as in Question 5, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the data using the 3-period weighted moving average?

Question - Using the same data as in Question 5, what is the mean squared error (deviation) (MAD) for the data using the 3-period weighted moving average?

Question - Using the same data as in Question 5, what is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for the data using the 3-period moving average? For this case, enter your percentage as a whole number (e.g., 12 as opposed to 12% or 0.12).