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What is the maximum capital cost

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What is the (incremental) NPV of this investment in conversion capacity?  

  1. What is the maximum capital cost of the conversion unit for which a refiner should proceed with the investment?
  2. Reset to base values. Change the price delta for Jet Fuel & Kerosene from ($5) to zero. What is the maximum viable capital cost now?
  3. What does this tell you about the significance of estimating future product prices?
  4. Reset to base values. Now put in the distillation product yields (column J) for heavy crude as given in question 2. Also enter the price of heavy crude you calculated in question 2. What is the maximum viable capital cost now?
  5. What does this tell you about the refiner's choice of crude type given an investment in conversion capacity?
  6. Reset to base values. Now enter the distillation product yields for light crude as given in question 5. Also put in the price of heavy crude you calculated in question 5. What is the maximum viable capital cost now?
  7. Given this analysis, what can you say about how future expectations of light versus heavy crude supply might affect refiner investment decisions? 
  8. In a real investment decision like this, there are many uncertainties.  What inputs to this model should properly be considered uncertainties if you were contemplating doing a risk analysis?

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