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Suppose that in one year, squirrels collect 98% of the acorns produced by a particular population of oak trees. They immediately eat 34% of the acorns that they collect. The remaining collected acorns are buried, but only 3.5% of the buried acorns are abandoned. The rest of the buried acorns are eventually eaten. Only 0.5% of acorns that are not collected by squirrels survive to become seedlings (the others become desiccated and die), but 20% of acorns that are buried and then abandoned survive to become seedlings.
What is the marginal probability that an acorn will not be buried, (hint: it is not 0.34)?
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