Reference no: EM132443263

1. Actual demands for the last four months are as follows.

What is the forecast value (model generated value) for May and June using exponential smoothing with Alpha = 0.2? Assume actual and forecast values for March are same. Show work.

2. While monitoring the forecast values based on simple moving average method (averaging period = 3), the tracking signals are consistently coming out as large positive numbers (i.e., 4.0, 6.2, and 5.5). What should we do to the forecast model?  

3. Given the actual data on the left, what is the forecast for period 6, using a four-period weighted moving average with weights of .1, .2, .3 and .4 (greater weight towards more recent time)?

4. Use exponential smoothing technique. With alpha = 0.1. Assume forecast value for week 1 is same as actual value for week 1. Fill out below table.

week	demand	forecast
1	430	430
2	289
3	367
4	470
5	468
6	365

5. The Freewheel motorcycle dealer in the Chicago area wants to be able to forecast accurately the demand for the Freewheel Super Z12 motorcycle.  From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the following data for the second half of 2015.

Month               Sales

July                              10

August              15

September        23

October                        44

November         54

December         36

Compute a 4-month moving average forecast of demand for January 2016.

6. Moving Average with different averaging periods:

Year	Actual Sales	Forecast	ABS(Error)	Forecast	ABS(Error)	Forecast	ABS(Error)
1	565
2	590
3	583
4	597
5	615	597	18	590	25	583.75	31.25
6	611	615	4	606	5	596.25	14.75
7	610	611	1	613	3	601.5	8.5
8	623	610	13	610.5	12.5	608.25	14.75
	Sum:		36		45.5		69.25

Which Moving Average model is most accurate based on MAD?