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Samantha a is the manager of ABC Electronics and is planning a promotion on a discontinued model of 44” plasma screen TVs. The promotion will last 10 days, at the end of which any sets that she ordered but did not sell will be sold to another retailer for $250 each. She must order the sets from the manufacturer before she knows what the demand during the promotion will be. The cost is $350 per set and she will sell them for $600. Evie estimates that on 20% of the days she will sell two sets, 30% of the days she will sell one set, and 50% of the days she will sell no sets.
(a) What is the expected demand during the promotion? Should Samantha necessarily order the expected demand (think about the cost of ordering one too many vs. one too few)?
(b) Simulate order quantities of 5 through 10. In the ten cells containing the daily demands, use a discrete, general probability distribution. Include one cell that contains the total net profit for the promotion. Based on 10,000 trials (using Excel CRYSTAL BALL), what order quantity maximizes the average net profit? What is the simulated average net profit? USE CRYSTAL BALL.
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