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You believe stock price by year end will have the following multinomial distribution:
Price Probability
60 10%
80 20%
100 40%
120 20%
140 10%
Problem 1: What should be the stock price TODAY
Problem 2: what is the prob that a 110 strike CALL will expire ITM?
Problem 3: what is the conditional average price of underlying stock when 110 strike CALL expires ITM?
Problem 4: what is the conditional average payment from the 110 strike CALL option when the CALL expires ITM?
Problem 5: based on Q2-Q4, how much should the 110 CALL be priced at?
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