Reference no: EM133743175

Ultimate Wx Analysis

In this culminating graded activity, you will demonstrate your ability to apply and synthesize weather concepts and your written communication skills. The activity will also require critical thinking, attention to detail, and self-reflection.

Using the weather products, flight plan scenario, and other information and resources provided, along with your acquired knowledge and skills, you will analyze and interpret the given information to identify the presence or possible development of specific weather phenomena and determine the associated weather-related impacts and hazards to the planned flight.

This is a culminating activity, and your goal is to "pull out all the stops" in applying weather concepts and their applications to aviation, covered not only in this module but for all previous modules of the course.

In part of the activity, you will also engage in some self-reflection on how your learning experiences throughout the course factored into your ability to successfully complete this activity.

Assignment :

Mock Scenario: Due to your outstanding reputation as a skilled member of an aviation weather consulting team, you have been asked by a friend, who is an experienced General Aviation (GA)/Skybrary pilot, to analyze the weather conditions and identify potential weather-related flight impacts for their planned upcoming flight from Daytona Beach, Florida to Prescott, Arizona.
Using flight-specific information and weather products provided, you will identify already existing or potentially developing weather phenomena at the departure and destination, and along the planned flight route, and discuss the associated aviation-related hazards/impacts at the departure and destination, and along the planned flight route due to the weather phenomena identified.
To complete the activity:
• Carefully read the instructions and requirements.
• Examine the Information section, which contains flight-specific information and weather products.
By the last day of this module (Module 7): Orient yourself to the activity, and get started on the analysis and interpretation. Contact your instructor if you need any clarification or guidance on what's expected.

Activity Instructions:
In this activity, you will be guided in analyzing the expected weather conditions and potential flight impacts and hazards for a flight in a General Aviation (GA)/Skybrary aircraft. The flight is planned for a mid-March day, going from Daytona Beach International Airport in Florida to Prescott Regional Airport in Arizona, with a mid-way stopover to rest and refuel at Fort Worth International Airport.
You will be evaluating the weather and flight impacts and hazards for the following by analyzing and interpreting the weather products and information in the Information section:

1. The initial departure from Daytona Beach
2. Along the flight route between Daytona and Prescott
3. The landing at the final destination at Prescott

Image 1 of the Information section shows a US map with the departure, stopover, destination, and flight route annotated. A cross-section of the topography along the flight route is also provided below the map.
• Daytona Beach International Airport (KDAB), with an elevation of 33 feet, is located about 4 miles west of the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of Florida. Map Image of Daytona Beach International Airport/Google Maps.
• Prescott Regional Airport (KPRC), with an elevation of 5,045 feet, is located in the Bradshaw Mountains of North Central Arizona. Map Image of Prescott Regional Airport/Google Maps.
The planned departure time from Daytona Beach is 8:00 a.m. local time (Eastern time zone). After the estimated flight time for each leg of the trip and the stopover time in Ft. Worth, the expected landing time in Prescott is around 5:00 p.m. local time (Mountain time zone).
The planned cruising altitude is 18,000 feet. The departure, stopover location, destination, and flight route are identified on the weather maps and imagery.
In completing the evaluations and summary of the weather and its impacts and hazards to the flight, keep in mind the difference between weather and flight weather impacts and hazards. For example, fog and low clouds describe the weather, and the associated impacts of fog and low clouds are low visibility and low cloud ceilings.
Please proceed to the Part I section.

Part I - Big Picture Evaluation of Expected Weather
First, you will evaluate the weather situation at the departure, along the flight route, and at the destination by analyzing and interpreting the weather products and information presented in the tables and images of the Information section.
Write down the evaluations and calculations as specified in 1-3. You will use this information to complete your activity submission.
1. For the departure location (KDAB) - Collectively analyze the US surface map with radar image overlay* (Image 2), the US infrared satellite image* (Image 3), and the KDAB surface weather valid for the planned departure (take-off) time (see Departure and Destination Surface Weather Tables) to identify:
A. Specific surface weather features or patterns, such as high and low-pressure systems, cold and warm fronts, the pressure gradient (tight or loose), and relative wind speed (strong or weak) in the vicinity of KDAB.
B. Any fog or clouds in the vicinity of KDAB. Specify if the clouds are layered or convective. If layered, specify if they are high or low-level clouds.
C. Precipitation (if present, specify intensity) or other significant weather in the vicinity of KDAB.
D. The difference between the wind direction and runway orientation at KDAB (determined by comparing the surface wind direction in the data table with runway orientation from the airport Google Map image (link provided in the Activity Instructions section).
E. For each item identified in A-D, state the specific map, image, and/or information used to make the identification.
2. At flight level along the planned flight route (between KDAB and KPRC) - collectively analyze the US surface map with radar image overlay* (Image 2), the US infrared satellite image* (Image 3), and the 500 mb map* ** (Image 4) to describe:
A. The height pattern (troughs/ridges) and wind flow pattern (meridional or zonal) at flight level along the route.
B. How the wind is changing at flight level along the route, stating the numerical values of speed and stating in words the direction FROM which the wind is blowing.
C. Any clouds at flight level along the route. State whether 1) the clouds are layered or convective, and 2) whether or not the aircraft is passing through clouds (determine this by calculating the 500 mb (flight level) dew point depression using data in the 500 mb station models).
D. Any precipitation (and its intensity) at flight level along the route.
E. How the temperature changes at flight level along the route, stating specific values of temperature with appropriate units.
3. For the destination location (KPRC) - Collectively analyze the US surface map with radar image overlay* (Image 2), the US infrared satellite image* (Image 3), and the KPRC surface weather valid for the planned destination (landing) time of 5:00 pm local time (Mountain time zone) (see Departure and Destination Surface Weather Tables) to identify:
A. Specific surface weather features or patterns, such as high and low-pressure systems, cold and warm fronts, and the pressure gradient (tight or loose) and associated wind speed (strong or weak) in the vicinity of KPRC.
B. Any fog or clouds in the vicinity of KPRC. Specify if the clouds are layered or convective. If layered, specify if they are high or low-level clouds.
C. Precipitation (if present, specify intensity) or other significant weather in the vicinity of KPRC.
D. Any differences between the wind direction and the runway orientation at KPRC (determined by comparing wind direction with runway orientation from airport Google Map image (link provided in the Activity Instructions section above).
E. For each item identified in A-D, state the specific map, image, and/or other information used to make the identification.
*For simplicity, consider this information valid for the entire time frame of the planned flight from Daytona Beach (KDAB) to Prescott (KPRC).

Part II - Evaluation of Potential Flight Weather Impacts and Hazards
Next, you will evaluate the potential flight weather impacts and hazards based on your determination of the weather conditions in Part I.
Write down the following evaluations as you will use this information to complete your activity submission:
1. Based on your evaluation in Part I, determine, for both the departure (take-off) from KDAB, and the destination (landing) at KPRC, if:
A. Low cloud ceiling and/or low visibility conditions are present. If so, state the cause(s).
B. Low-level turbulence could be present. If so, state the cause(s).
C. Crosswinds could be present.
Justify each determination in A-C with evidence from the evaluation in Part I.
2. Based on your evaluation in Part I, at flight level along the flight route between KDAB and KPRC:
A. Identify locations* where crosswinds will be present.
B. Discuss any potential impact of the along-route winds to the predicted flight time and fuel requirements.
C. Identify locations* where the potential of encountering convective turbulence, aircraft icing, low visibility, or hail damage exists.
D. Identify locations* where the potential for a "high to low" scenario exists, and describe how this could impact the determination of the aircraft's true altitude.
E. Identify locations* where the potential of encountering mountain wave turbulence exists (hint: analyze Image 1 of the Information section).
Justify each determination in A-E with evidence from the evaluation in Part I.
*Describe locations using an appropriately identifying geographic reference, e.g., "over Central Texas"
Please proceed to the Submission Instructions and Requirements section.
Submission Instructions and Requirements:
For the activity submission, formulate a four-paragraph document, where each paragraph of the document meets the criteria specified and is presented in the following order:
• Paragraph 1 : Formulate a complete yet concise summary of the evaluations and calculations performed in 1-3 of Part I - Big Picture Evaluation of Expected Weather. The summary should address all points as outlined in 1-3.
• Paragraph 2 : Formulate a complete yet concise summary of the evaluations performed in 1 and 2 of Part II - Evaluation of Potential Flight Weather Impacts and Hazards. The summary should address all points as outlined in 1 and 2.
• Paragraph 3 : Address the following "What if" critical thinking questions, considering the typical local summer weather patterns for each location.
o Suppose the flight was instead taking place in the middle of the summer (vs. the spring).
• What impacts and hazards could potentially exist for an afternoon take-off from Daytona Beach in the summertime scenario?
• For a return trip from Prescott to Daytona Beach, what impacts and hazards could potentially exist for an afternoon take-off from Prescott in the summertime scenario?
• Paragraph 4 : Develop a few sentences of critical self-reflection on your preparedness to complete this activity. While engaging in self-reflection, the objective is to analyze things for what they are, not what you think they should be, with a perspective as if you were watching an event from a distance. In reflecting on your preparedness to complete the activity, consider the knowledge and skills you have acquired to this point in the course (from readings, lessons, and activities) as well as any learning or experiences previous to this course.