Reference no: EM131926068
Problem
Australian Wine Sales. Figure 17.19 shows time plots of monthly sales of six types of Australian wines for 1980-1994. The units are thousands of liters. You are hired to obtain short term forecasts (2-3 months ahead) for each of the six series, and this task will be repeated every month.
a. Which forecasting method would you choose if you had to choose the same method for all series? Why?
b. Fortified wine has the largest market share of the above six types of wine. You are asked to focus on fortified wine sales alone, and produce as accurate as possible forecasts for the next 2 months.
• Start by partitioning the data: use the period until December 1993 as the training set.
• Fit a regression model to sales with a linear trend and additive seasonality.
i. Create the "actual vs. forecast" plot. What can you say about the model fit?
ii. Use the regression model to forecast sales in January and February 1994.
c. Create an ACF plot for the residuals from the above model until lag 12. Examining this plot (only), which of the following statements are reasonable conclusions?
• Decembers (month 12) are not captured well by the model.
• There is a strong correlation between sales on the same calendar month.
• The model does not capture the seasonality well.
• We should try to fit an autoregressive model with lag 12 to the residuals.
|
Describe the interesting and uninteresting information
: Describe the interesting and uninteresting information that these rules provide. Is this model practical for predicting the outcome of a new auction?
|
|
Calculate the investor percentage holding period return
: An investor bought 10 Ellis Industries, Inc. long-term bonds 1 year ago, when they were first issued by the company. In addition, he bought 200 shares.
|
|
Multiple reasons of why the people started to revolt in 1848
: There were multiple reasons of why the people started to revolt in 1848. The biggest known cause was Nationalism. Many different ethnic groups
|
|
Explain the concept of the chapter and why you selected it
: Explain the concept of the chapter and why you selected it; then offer your own APPLICATION of Foster's thinking to a personal, professional, or academic issue.
|
|
What can you say about the model fit
: Create the "actual vs. forecast" plot. What can you say about the model fit? Use the regression model to forecast sales in January and February 1994.
|
|
What is the cash flow for the investor
: An investor enters a short position in a one-month forward contract on 750,000 British pounds at a forward price of 1.0569.
|
|
Describe a political-social and cultural movement today
: Describe a political, social, or cultural movement today that you would define as "progressive." Explain what makes it progressive.
|
|
Which payment method will result in a faster payoff
: Married clients have just been approved for a 30-year, $ 150,000 mortgage, with an APR of 7%. However, they know that they do not want to make only the regular.
|
|
Create an acf plot and compare with your answer
: Shipments of Household Appliances. The time plot in Figure 17.18 shows the series of quarterly shipments. Create an ACF plot and compare with your answer.
|