Reference no: EM133204688 , Length: 3 pages.
Assignment: Mini-case Study
I. Understanding the decision maker and decision context
i. Who is the decision maker?
ii. What arethe decision maker's values and objectives (What does she care about)?
iii. What is the context for decision? (Why is this a pressing problem now? who may be demanding action? why?)
II. List all alternatives or options - including ones that she may not have considered
III. Identify the chance events or outcomes that may occur after the decision is taken (e.g. what happens to the hurricane speed after she decides to seed? What happens to the hurricane speed after she decides not to seed?)
IV. Consequences - remember each objective needs a consequence
V. Structure these alternatives into a decision tree for the following two alternatives. Be explicit about the decision for the tree.
VI. Adding DecisionTree
VII. Is better to seed or not to seed any given hurricane in the face of the economic damages?
VIII. Is better to seed or not to seed any given hurricane in the face of the economic damages and government liability?
IX. Find (and/or estimate) the values in the background information package to populate the trees. There may not be one single value.
X. Calculate the expected monetary values (EMV)
XI. Develop recommendations for the decision-makers
i. First, you must make one clear recommendation (e.g. seed or don't seed)
ii. Second, are there other features that the decision maker should consider?