Reference no: EM132915468

Task : Analysis of Current Economic Scenario (Group Project)

Current Economic Scenario in Australia

Summary of the statement released by the RBA governor Philip Lowe on the 4th of May 2021:

"The global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic and the outlook is for strong growth this year and next. The recovery remains uneven, though, and some countries are yet to contain the virus. Global trade in goods has picked up strongly and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. However, inflation remains low and below central bank targets.

Sovereign bond yields have been steady recently after increasing earlier in the year due to the positive news on vaccines and the additional fiscal stimulus in the United States. Inflation expectations have lifted from near record lows to be closer to central banks' targets. The 3-year government bond yield in Australia is at the Board's target of 10 basis points and lending rates for most borrowers are at record lows. The Australian dollar remains in the upper end of the range of recent years.

The economic recovery in Australia has been stronger than expected and is forecast to continue. This recovery is especially evident in the strong growth in employment, with the unemployment rate falling further to 5.6 per cent in March and the number of people with a job now exceeding the pre-pandemic level.

The Bank's central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further, with growth of 43⁄4 per cent expected over 2021 and 31⁄2 per cent over 2022. A pick-up in business investment is expected and household spending will be supported by the strengthening in balance sheets over the past year. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, to be around 5 per cent at the end of this year and around 41⁄2 per cent at the end of 2022. Despite the strong recovery in economic activity, the recent CPI data confirmed that inflation pressures remain subdued in most parts of the Australian economy. A pick-up in inflation and wages growth is expected, but it is likely to be only gradual and modest. In the central scenario, inflation in underlying terms is expected to be 11⁄2 per cent in 2021 and 2 per cent in mid 2023. In the short term, CPI inflation is expected to rise temporarily to be above 3 per cent in the June quarter because of the reversal of some COVID-19-related price reductions.

Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers. Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

At its July meeting, the Board will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond for the 3-year yield target or to shift to the next maturity, the November 2024 bond. The Board is not considering a change to the target of 10 basis points. At the July meeting, the Board will also consider future bond purchases following the completion of the second $100 billion of purchases under the government bond purchase program in September. The Board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases to assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation. The Board places a high priority on a return to full employment."

Go to RBA website and read the detail report/s on the current economic condition and operating monetary policy to tackle this situation. Undertake research and reading to answer the following questions:

1. What are the determinants of interest rates in general?

2. Why the cash rate and interest rate are historically low in Australia in the last 5 years?

Attachment:- Analysis of Current Economic.rar