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The founder and namesake of Fund is impressed with your real estate knowledge. She understands the current market dynamics and is debating whether or not to increase the fund's allocation to real estate debt, specifically buying a portion of UDR's $300m 3.750% bonds due 07/01/2024. However, before she gives the green light, she has asked you to summarize your opinion on where real estate credit risk premiums will trend in the next 12 months (hence, where will the value of this bond trend). To do so, you should fully (but succinctly!) describe how and why the current economic overview and your outlook for the economy will impact real estate fundamentals, capital flows to real estate, and real estate risk premiums.
Problem 1: What are some of the risk factors to your outlook (i.e. where are the weaknesses in your analysis)? Aside from the impact this outlook could have on the performance of UDR's bonds going forward, could other real estate property segments prove worthy of investment consideration? Which and why? Once you're done, will you be recommending that your firm buy into this UDR issue?
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