What a best and worst case scenario analysis

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Reference no: EM13320514

Table 1 is provided as a reference for input values for your model.

Table 1. Input Variable for Scenario Analysis

Variable Name

Description

Base

Best

Worst

Pr_PROB

Per-act HIV infection without PEP

0.02

0.03

0.006

Pr_PREV

Partner is HIV-infected

0.18

1

0.06

Pr_ADHERE1

Patients' adherence to full course of therapy

in absence of side effects

0.79

0.84

0.68

Pr_ADHERE2

Patients' adherence to full course of therapy

when side effects occur

0.59

0.68

0.5

Pr_PEPE

Effectiveness of full course of PEP

0.79

0.94

0.43

Pr_SIDE

Probability of PEP side effects

0.5

0.2

0.8

r

Discount rate

3%

0

5%

C_PEP

Cost of PEP per person

$679

$439

$1,048

Q_SIDE

QALYs lost due to side effect

0.005

0

0.02

Note:C_HIVMC, Q_HIV and Q_NOHIV are functions of discount rate and annual values; they will vary in accordance with the discount rate r.

C_HIVMC = NPV(r;0; 0; 3267; 9303; 9303; 9303; 16167; 16167; 16167; 17835; 17835; 17835; 17835; 25729; 49010; 49010)*172.2/156.9

Q_HIV = NPV(r;0.940; 0.940; 0.910; 0.870; 0.870; 0.870; 0.820; 0.820; 0.820; 0.760;    0.760; 0.760; 0.760; 0.650; 0.620; 0.620)

Q_NOHIV = PV(0.940; 0; r; 39)

Note: You do not need to make best and worst case variables for C_HIVMC, Q_NOHIV and Q_HIV.  These values are functions of the discount rate. They will change as a function of the best and worst case discount rates.

Remember to save different versions of your tree if you want to make changes to your base tree to save time.

Answer the following questions. Please type your answers.

1. Consider variables: Pr_Prob and Pr SIDE.   Explain why a relatively high value for the former and a relatively low value for the latter are the input values for the BEST case.

2. Please completetable 2 below.

3. Please describe generally what a best and worst case scenario analysis is and why we conduct them. 

4. Explain the results presented in your table to a policy-maker.

Table 2: Base, Best and Worst Case Results

Scenario

Cost

Incremental

Cost

Effects

Incremental Effect

ICER

Base Case

 

 

 

 

 

PEP

 

 

 

 

 

No-PEP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Worst

 

 

 

 

 

PEP

 

 

 

 

 

No-PEP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Best

 

 

 

 

 

PEP

 

 

 

 

 

No-PEP

 

 

 

 

 

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Reference no: EM13320514

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